Saturday, April 23, 2011

Dry Bits Week 16

Top & Bottom 5 Day: OCNF @0.58 +3.57%, NMM @20.99 +2.64%, >>> BALT @8.04 -4.05%, PRGN @2.80 -4.10%, GNK @8.17 -15.59%. The leader board shows Navios Partners for the third consecutive week earning the t&b alert status. It has been our experience that the range bound bulker equities will fall (almost always) after being a leader for 3 straight. Peter Pan sure had a bad week with his bulkers. The bottom feeders are watching Genco with sincerity. “Wait for the magic dust to settle” sounds off Boomer James, in anticipation of more shenanigans. Dry Equities 14 losers vs. 2 gainers. Ouch!!

The Baltics: BDI @1254 -3.24%, BCI @1540 -1.53%, BPI @1377 -9.04%, BSI @1401 -0.91%, BHSI @802 +0.75%. It took Ten consecutive weeks but the Baltic Handysize Index has crossed the 800 mark. This week (like several others lately) showed Red for all other indices with the BPI losing the most.

The Fixtures: Ore =4, Coal =5, Corn =1, Grain =1, T/C =25, Period =7, total =43.

Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes : Aqua Princess 4 – 6 MOS $12,500 vs. $6,530.
Pmax: Go Public 3 – 5 MOS $16,000 vs. $11,335.
Smax: Pisti 5 – 7 MOS $15,500 vs. $14,683.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =8, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =3, Pmax =17, Smax =7, Hmax =1, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =2, total =43.

Ski Notes: The Holiday shortened week has yielded limited data compared to our normal analysis. I noticed our fav coal burner taipower has chartered a Cape TBN @125,000 Newcastle > Taiwan USD 12.4. The last I checked there was no bulk port that could handle a big girl on the island. Cargill reportedly fixed a 60K Grain run loading Miss. River to Egypt.
Happy Easter
Ski

Saturday, April 16, 2011

Dry Bits Week 15

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @1.77 +7.92%, PRGN @2.92 +3.91%, NMM @20.45 +1.03% >>
GNK @9.68 -7.63%, SB @8.31 -11.50%, OCNF @ 0.56 -15.15%. Looks like the SB offering has been cooked.
The tweendeckers (TBSI) recovering almost 8% after being on a t&b laggard alert, to lead all bulkers for the week. Ski points for Boomer. Cousin Eddie at OCNF should be ashamed of himself. He is not. He can’t help it, in his blood ya know! Navios Partners has made the leader board 2 weeks in a row qualifying it for a t&b alert. Partners does seem to hold gains better than a lot of others. Maybe let them hit 3 weeks in a row, and then its hammer time.

The Baltics: BDI @1296 -5.81%, BCI @1564 -2.97%, BPI @1514 -10.73%, BSI @1414 -2.95%,
BHSI @796 +1.27%. The panasisters are just rolling over and giving it away. The handies now have 9 consecutive weeks without a rate loss. The wheat fixtures coming in will surely drive the BHSI over the 800 plateau? Yet as we say that, we acknowledge one of the wheat fixtures was actually a Supra steaming to Israel. Boomer James reports somewhat stoically that “Those with the gear, shall persevere!”

The Fixtures: Ore =17, Coal =4, T/C =99, Period =12, Wheat =2, HSS =1, total =135. The ore chores fall from last weeks 19 (and that was a slow week) making this week…slower. Best T/C activity since week 7 when we had 106. Triple digit t/c numbers are expected most times of year. The period volume dipped again, and it showed up in the diminished rates achieved. Capes are still being inked at more than double spot.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes: Blue Cho Oyo trading 11 – 13 MOS @$15,000 spot =$7,030.
Pmax: S. Nicole trading 11-13 MOS @$15,500 spot =$12,407.
Smax: Filia Joy trading 3 – 5 MOS @$18,500 Spot =$14,870.

The Vessels: VLOC =2, Capes =27, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =53, Smax =22, Hmax =12,
Hsize =3, Bulkers <30 =6, total =135. The really big ladies (VLOC) captured a couple fixtures denying the Capes a shot at the 30 mark. The bulkers <30K enjoying the early wheat harvest boost in employment. Supra vessels trying to hold in USG amidst an armada of sister ships advertising prompt. We read that 5 bulkers a day for the rest of the year are supposed to hit the water. Way to go owners, way to go!

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Bonita, Navios Altamira, Torm Rolholm, Ionian Eagle, Thor Freindship, Thor Dynamic. The folks who closely follow Navios will be interested in their chartering of the Fair Lady hauling coal from Baltimore >> India @41.25. Is the coal market getting bonkers or did Navios slip and have to cover a COA when they did not have a vessel available? Angel had one vessel lose a main motor a while back if I remember correct. That may explain the expensive charter they incurred. This week also produced a VLOC fixture for the 208,000dwt Hyundai Frontier trading 8 – 9 MOS for $16,000 daily. I bet the owner has reflected on the situation that his vessel holds ~ four Supramax cargoes worth of tonnage, yet earns close to the same as just one Supra. It’s the gear that grabs!
Good Fortunes
Ski

Friday, April 8, 2011

Dry Bits Week 14

Top & Bottom 5 Day: EXM 4.56 +7.80%, DRYS 5.03 +5.23%, SHIP 0.61 +1.66%, >>> NM 5.66 -2.91%, OCNF 0.66 -4.34%, TBSI 1.64 -8.88%. The folks holding DRYS are smiling gaining over 5% during a bad BDI week. Readers are reminded TBSI has made the T&B5 as a laggard two consecutive weeks. This qualifies the tweeners for a TonMileTrader alert. Boomer James is stiring up the bottomfeeders for another strike I believe.

The Baltics: BDI @1376 -9.47%, BCI @1612 -10.04%, BPI @1696 -11.89%, BSI @1457 -3.57%, BHSI @786 no change. The Panasisters taking it on the chin outpacing the Capesize rate loss as weekly volume remains significantly depressed for the Panamax market. After 8 consecutive weeks of Handysize rates rising The BHSI was held to no change as negative sentiment carried the week across the classes. The reality of the tonnage supply and numbers of vessels available promptly takes the wind out of the owners sails.

The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =9, T/C =87, Period =18, Corn =2, total =135. The ore chores came off a bit compared to last week but weve seen worse. Surprised and glad to see our favorite coal burner Taipower was back in the game after also hitting hard last week. Period volume was better but still far short of our expectations. Both loads of corn originated near DryBits headquarters in the Midwest, then down the Mississippi River sailing Algeria.

Top Period Rates this week vs. spot

Capes; Blue Cho Oyo 11 – 13 MOS $16,000 vs. $8,381

Pmax; Filippo Lembo 5 – 7 MOS $23,000 vs. $13,937

Smax; Magnum Energy 3 – 5 MOS $17,000 vs. $15,345

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =28, Post P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =45, Smax =34, Hmax =8, Hsize =5, Bulkers <30 =4, total =135. The big girls kept par with last weeks fair showing. The Panamax vessel demand comes in below healthy levels and we note a number of mid sized ports remain out of service. The Supras nailed 17% more fixtures compared to last week on improved ECSA activity.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Golden Seas, Bonafide, Elpis, Coronis, Akmi. Surfing the public discussion boards I saw an interesting headline to a thread about DRYS being unaffected by the BDI. As long as any company is operating dry bulk vessels, the BDI is directly involved in share price performance. There are no equities in our sector that are not married to the Baltic, and to observe any chart divergence is only temporary at best. Shipping always reverts to the mean, and the Baltic is our oscillator.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Saturday, April 2, 2011

Week 13

Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @8.90 +6.07%, NMM @20.66 +3.87%, NM @5.83 +3.55% >>>PRGN @2.84 -4.69%, SHIP @0.60 -4.76%, TBSI @1.80 -15.09%. The leader board is no big surprise, but rest assured the tweendeckers being sacked for over 15% has garnered the attention of more than one bottomfeeder. The dry bulk equities had 5 gainers and 11 losers for the week. The Economou controlled Dryships weathered their earnings report better than we expected. It had been our opinion that the share price would have made the laggard board with double digits losses as investors digested the report. Maybe I read it wrong?

The Baltics: BDI @1520 -5.36%, BCI @1792 -2.38%, BPI @1925 -7.36%, BSI @1511 -5.73%, BHSI @786 +0.76%. The Panasisters lost ground with reduced demand, signaling charterers have the upper hand at the fixture table. Rates also decaying thru competition for cargoes, AKA lots of Ladies to pick from. The little ones push to 8 consecutive weeks of BHSI rates improving. The 800 barrier is proving elusive.

The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =6, T/C =81, Period =13, total =124. The ore chores almost doubled over last week with the Capes grabbing all but one of the ore fixtures. The coal demand was almost nonexistent without our bud Taipower who took 2/3rds of the coal runs. Remember next week they won’t be buying the fuel if they follow their normal demand. The BPI is perhaps as heavily influenced by coal as the BCI is by ore.

Top Period rates vs. spot

Capes; Semirio trading 2 years $17,250, spot $10,371.

Pmax; Navios Star trading 4-6 MOS $18,500, spot $15,807.

Smax; Port Maubert trading 1 year $18,000, spot $15,921.

The Vessels: VLOC =1, Capes =28, Post Pmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =42, SMax =29, Hmax =9, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30 =3, total =124. The Supras seeing work in USG but still waiting for the jump that was predicted. The Panamax fleet had 15 less fixtures compared to last week and it showed up in London.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Akili, Calm Seas, Navios Star, Torm Salthome, Nirefs, Aliki, Baltic Leopard, Thor Endeavor, Navios Armonia, Heron, Genco Tiberious. Once again we see Navios Partners among the leaders and remind folks about this company if you wish to hold a shipper long. I have swing traded (surfed) NMM several times always thinking if I was going to hold a shipper long, it would be this one. Boomer James has thrown GNK up on his dry erase board next to TBSI. Alarming!

Good Fortunes

Ski

Saturday, March 26, 2011

Dry Bits Week 12

Top & Bottom 5 Day: NMM @19.89 +9.70%, OCNF @0.70 +9.375%, DRYS @4.90 +8.40% >>>GLBS @8.39 -1.06%, SBLK @2.44 -1.21%, FREE @2.76 -1.42%. The fact that Navios Partners gained almost 10% somewhat legitimizes the Economou family plays. Bear in mind :~) that Angel’s spin NMM, is the only pure bulk play with both DRYS and Cousin Eddie’s OCNF running mixed fleets. For our covered sector, Ganiers 12 and Losers 4.

The Baltics: BDI @1585 +3.52%, BCI @1805 +6.99%, BPI @2078 -0.76%, BSI @1603 +1.84%, BHSI @780 +3.31%. The Handies continue the comeback posting their 7th consecutive week of gains. Do we think this might have something to do with the newbuild deliveries killing the larger tonnage fleets?

The Fixtures: Ore =14, Coal =7, T/C =84, Period =31, total =136. The Ore Chores and coal runs both saw huge w.o.w. improvements. The real headliner comes from the period market where we saw ~ one in five fixtures going “long”.

Top weekly fixtures vs. spot rates;

Capes $16,000 trading 11 – 13 MOS Navios Happiness vs. spot $10,634

Pmax $22,500 trading 4 – 6 MOS m/v Accord vs. spot $16,684

Smax $21,500 trading 3 – 5 MOS m/v New Liu Lin Hai vs. spot $16,854

Readers will notice the Supramax class is fetching more spot dollars than the Panasisters or Capes. The market remains Kadywhompus. The Cape/Pana ratio is being outperformed by the Cape/Supra spreads. Who are we to question the markets performance.

The Vessels: Capes =25, Post Pana =5, Kmax =4, Pmax =57, Smax =22, Hmax =4, Hsize =4, Bulkers =5. The capes employment is directly a function of the improved ore trades. The smaller ladies will start seeing more ECSA runs as we begin pulling from the harvests. Looking for the market to again improve this next coming week. Last week we had mentioned hitting 800 BHSI and even though we did not make it, we again stress the little ones will rock. Like our friend from Cotzias Shipping (Bernard) says “give me a handy with gears any day” so we wonder when EGLE will receive the markets affection.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Navios Azimuth, Navios Asericks, Navios Serenity, Navios Cielo, Navios Herakles, Newsea’s Pearl, Genco Rhone, Navios Happiness. The newest addition to Angel’s fleet is the Serentity, beginning a Cargill charter ex yard. The “open to the public” Yahoo message board’s normally raucous and foul mouthed threads have been minus one of the few dry bulk informed posters this last week. The staff at TonMileTrader suggest this development yields more bad than good for genuine bulker enthusiasts looking for scraps of valuable information buried among the public offerings. Cheering good news is great and fun, enduring repetitive (yet accurate) bad news is perhaps compulsory.

Good Fortunes

Ski

Sunday, March 20, 2011

Freeboards


Ahoy There!I often use the expression “watch your freeboards” when thinking something bad is about to happen, or advising against something. I knew it meant how many boards must remain visible (above water) for a vessel to be seaworthy. I came across some chartering terms while reaffirming my idea of SHINC and bam cut & paste away.

FREEBOARDS:The basic freeboards that are calculated according to these rules depend on the length and type of vessel. “Type A vessel” is designed to carry only liquid cargoes in bulk and in which the cargo tanks have only small access openings closed by watertight gasketed covers of steel or equivalent material. These vessels are assigned with the lowest freeboards owing to the fact that because they ‘are nearly sealed, their buoyancy is unlikely to be lost unless they are damaged.

All other ships are “Type B vessels”. Basic Type B freeboards are larger, which means a lower draught. The Type B freeboard can be increased or reduced depending on the type of ship and its fittings. If vessels have old-fashioned hatchways covered with portable beams and covers, their freeboards are increased. Vessels having steel weathertight covers fitted with gaskets and clamping devices, improved crew protection, better arrangements for freeing water on deck and good subdivision characteristics, are considered to be safer and can have a freeboard reduced from the basic Type B freeboard. A greater reduction can be enjoyed by such vessels up to the total difference between the Type A and basic Type B freeboards. The Type B vessel which is assigned a Type A freeboard is called a “Type B - 100” vessel. Its subdivision requirements will be very severe. Other Type B vessels may be assigned a freeboard based on 60 per cent of the difference between Types A and B freeboards if their subdivision requirements are less severe.

Bulk carriers will be most advantaged if they can reduce their freeboards and load to deeper draughts. Ore carriers with two longitudinal bulkheads may be as sealed as tankers and can enjoy the B - 100 freeboard.
Good Fortunes

Friday, March 4, 2011

Dry Bits Week 9

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: FREE +9.96%, GLBS +7.17%, TBSI +6.21%>>>
SHIP -5.92%, EXM -6.0%, OCNF -6.41%. Readers will notice SHIP has populated the laggard list two weeks in a row. This qualifies as an alert to the momentum folks. Sector wide we had 9 gainers and 7 losers during the week. Uncle George’s DryShips/DrillShips almost made the top 3. It (DRYS) would have been the top dog if folks had read the latest DRYS projections authored by Ohms Law. We will be sharing portions of the report next TMT post.

The Baltics: BDI @1346 +8.11%, BCI @1427 +8.51%, BPI @1983 +9.43%,
BSI @1467 +5.92%, BHSI @704 +2.32%. This was a good week for the owners. Looking at the Baltic numbers Boomer James points out that Capes boast a 1427 point index compared to the Handies lowly sounding 704. That is less than half the cape index yet Handies are earning twice as much as Capes on the spot. Try to bounce them numbers off the Baltic’s formula and the index calculations have weighting issues that jump out at you.

The Fixtures: Ore =15, Coal =3, Bauxite =2, Scrap =1, HSS =1, T/C =87, Period =15, Total =124.
The Ore Chores dropped more than we expected. The drop in coal is significant but kinda the way it works. Hit one week off the next. One of Genco’s little boats Genco Sugar is hauling that load of scrap and we will look closer at it below.

Top Period & Spot rates:
Capes $16,000 11 > 13 MOS Spot $5,277
Panasisters $17,500 4 > 6 MOS Spot $15,478
Supras $17,250 4 > 6 MOS Spot $15,202
Handies $12,250 11 > 13 MOS Spot $10,460
This is amazing that we see another long term cape fixing way over the spot. We can only guess what those folk paying giant premiums above the spot market know that we don’t know!!!

Ski Notes: We have the following familiar vessels showing up in the reports. Navios Kypros, Genco Sugar, Phoenix Beauty, Navios Primavera, Thor Infinity, Corona. The fixture for the Genco Sugar has the vessel running scrap from Antwerp to Alexandria at a rate of USD27,00. Our calculations indicate this will be a profitable fixture in spite of the local areas abundance of available tonnage. The Panamax fixture volume was dismal until Thursday signing 24 CP. Even with the big day the week was weak.
Good Fortunes
Ski