Dry Bits Week 46

Top & Bottom 5 Day: NM 3.77 (+3.57%) SB 6.78 (+1.34%) >>> DRYS 2.54 (-11.80%) EXM 2.07 (-12.65%) TBSI 0.45 (-26.22%). The tweendeckers miss the street and paid. The losers outnumber winners 2 to 1 and averaged about a 10% loss for the week. The fact that DRYS and EXM got slammed a bit more should be noted. The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1895 (+3.26%), BCI 3235 (+2.69%), BPI 1831 (+3.97%), BSI 1381 (+4.30%), BHSI 661 (-2.07%). The larger vessel classes gained some juice with the noted exception of the smaller (normally mellow) handies. The week ended with the Baltic’s rising while equities retreated. Let us hope for a bit more of the same to extend the divergence. $$$$ in the making ya know! The Fixtures: Ore =27, Coal =6, T/C =82, Period =10, Bauxite =1, HSS =1, total =127. The ore chores doubled from last week and coal gained a fixture equaling the four week average of 6 coal fixtures. The T/C and Period volume improved as well, and noteworthy is China taking soy from the gulf this week while last week they took it from the mouth of the recently dredged Columbia River out west. Best done Period Vs. Spot Rates Capes: Great Song 4-6 MOS $19,000 vs. $28,795 Pmax: Nirefs 13-16 MOS $12,250 vs. $14,441 Smax: C S Brave 12 MOS $12,200 vs. $14,309 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =34, P/P =4, Kmax =12, Pmax =36, Smax =32, Hmax =2, Hsize =3, Bulk =4, total =127 Ski Notes: The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports. Navios Vector, Torm Ocean, Navios Orion, Navios Ulysses, Nirefs. The folks who are closely observing Diana Shipping will recognize the Nirefs as the vessel being chartered by Morgan Stanley for the next year. Good Fortunes Ski

Week 45

Top & Bottom 5 Day: FREE .907 (+19.34%) GNK 9.57 (+11.02%) DRYS 2.88 (+4.34%) >>>> NMM 14.95 (-4.22%) SHIP 3.02 (-7.07%) TBSI .61 (-16.43%). The gain FREE racked up did not add up, and we saw no reason for the spike Thursday. Peter Pan’s Genco reported the same day and was rewarded by the street. That should make his new Canadian buds happy. DRYS pops onto the leader board for the second time in 2 weeks. Does George have something going on? The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1835 (+2.85%), BCI 3150 (+12.98%), BPI 1761 (-4.08%), BSI 1324 (-7.08%), BHSI 675 (-7.28%). The almost 13% rise for the BCI tells me in spite of the large amount of capesize deliveries we read so much about the owners are still able from time to time to turn the table on the charterers. I will look at the fixtures a lot closer to identify how it may have occurred. Prompt list? The Fixtures: Ore =13, Coal =5, T/C =75, Period =7, total =100. The ore chores dropped by almost half week over week and the big coal burners were absent from the market. All in all every fixture class was off last weeks healthier numbers. Best done period vs. spot rates Capes: none reported vs. $27,197 Pmax: Yasa Team 4-6 MOS $12,500 vs. $14,078 Smax: Simge Akos 12 MOS $12,500 vs. $14,228 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =25, P/P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =36, Smax =22, Hmax =2, Hsize =0, Bulkers =4, total =100. We noticed the big ladies (Capesize) have not inked a period fixture for two weeks in a row. That is not normal. The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports, Torm Anholt, Navios Arc, Akili, Navios Melodia, Navios Pollux. Good Fortunes Ski

Dry Bits Week 44

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @0.73 +4.28%, SHIP @ 3.25 +2.20% >>>

EGLE @1.45 -13.69%, EXM @2.46 -16.89%, PRGN @0.92 -17.11.

The equities mostly followed the Baltic decay with the exception of our

favorite penny stocks TBSI and SHIP. They should have went down as well,

but forces greater than logic intervened.

The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1784 (-11.59%), BCI 2788 (-14.84%), BPI 1836 (-5.31%), BSI 1425 (-7.76%), BHSI 728 (-7.37%). The charterers managed to satisfy significant demand while pressing rates lower. The owners are again lining the mahogany calling for brandies by the double.

The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =7, T/C =92, Period =5, Manganese =1, HSS =1, total fixture count =130. The ore chores were decent, coal was ok, the t/c fixtures easily blew past the 4 week avg. of 77.75 fixes. The missing ingredient is the dismal period numbers with only 5 being inked. What does this tell us…nothing yet, but we will be watching for a pattern.

Best Done vs. spot rates

Capes: none reported $23,374

Pmax: Naias 4-6 MOS $14,000 vs. $15,521

Smax: Kang Shen 3-5 MOS $13,750 vs. $16,009

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =43,

Smax =35, Hmax =7, Hsize =1, Bulker =1, total =130.

The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports. Star Harmony.

Ski Notes: Without going into too much detail, it has been decided that

we will not post any of Boomer James actual trades. Our legal advisors

have instead suggested we could simply post a practice account that

coincidentally may shadow Boomers trades.

Natasha has dropped FreeSeas from her universe of coverage over at Cantor. I would press her as to why. Uncle George finally removed OCNF from TMT coverage. If we get to picky about our coverage criteria we soon will be talking about something besides shipping. None of these companies are shinning examples of good corporate governance with outstanding investor relationships. None.

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @0.73 +4.28%, SHIP @ 3.25 +2.20% >>> EGLE @1.45 -13.69%, EXM @2.46 -16.89%, PRGN @0.92 -17.11. The equities mostly followed the Baltic decay with the exception of our favorite penny stocks TBSI and SHIP. They should have went down as well, but forces greater than logic intervened. The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1784 (-11.59%), BCI 2788 (-14.84%), BPI 1836 (-5.31%), BSI 1425 (-7.76%), BHSI 728 (-7.37%). The charterers managed to satisfy significant demand while pressing rates lower. The owners are again lining the mahogany calling for brandies by the double. The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =7, T/C =92, Period =5, Manganese =1, HSS =1, total fixture count =130. The ore chores were decent, coal was ok, the t/c fixtures easily blew past the 4 week avg. of 77.75 fixes. The missing ingredient is the dismal period numbers with only 5 being inked. What does this tell us…nothing yet, but we will be watching for a pattern. Best Done vs. spot rates Capes: none reported $23,374 Pmax: Naias 4-6 MOS $14,000 vs. $15,521 Smax: Kang Shen 3-5 MOS $13,750 vs. $16,009 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =43, Smax =35, Hmax =7, Hsize =1, Bulker =1, total =130. The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports. Star Harmony. Ski Notes: Without going into too much detail, it has been decided that we will not post any of Boomer James actual trades. Our legal advisors have instead suggested we could simply post a practice account that coincidentally may shadow Boomers trades. Natasha has dropped FreeSeas from her universe of coverage over at Cantor. I would press her as to why. Uncle George finally removed OCNF from TMT coverage. If we get to picky about our coverage criteria we soon will be talking about something besides shipping. None of these companies are shinning examples of good corporate governance with outstanding investor relationships. None.

Dry Bits Week 24

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @1.14 +23.91%, GNK @7.02 +7.33%, DRYS @3.94 +4.78% >>> OCNF @0.32 -8.57%, EGLE @2.31 -9.05%, FREE @2.00 -10.71%. The tweendecker operator TBSI is way out in front of the leaders pushing for almost a 25% gain in 5 days. The folks waiting for Genco too hit a bottom might consider this an alert. It was no secret Boomer James has been sniffing out Peter Pan’s equity, waiting to join any overcorrection swing. It is sad to see Eagle listed among the laggards with such a fine fleet… Think of the implications!

The Baltics: BDI 1423 +0.35%, BCI 1824 +5.12%, BPI 1914 -0.67%, BSI 1319 -2.15%, BHSI 734 -2.0%. The BDI averages out the four sub-indices for a flat week. The Capes needed a kick in the rear as many vessels could not run at
the present spot rate without losing money.

The Fixtures: Ore =11, Coal =2, T/C =59, Period =7, total = 79. We had only four days of fixture reports come in and still we say this was the weakest demand since 2nd week of Jan. The market is not showing us any good indicators at this time.
Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates
Capes: Anagel Explorer trading 9 – 11 MOS @$10,250 vs. $8842
Pmax: Dora Schulte trading 3 – 5 MOS @ $22,500 vs. $15,867
Smax: None Reported

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =18, PP =3, Kmax =9, Pmax =26, Smax =20, Hmax =2, Hsize =0, Bulk =1.

Ski Notes: The Akili was the only familiar vessel fixed in the shortened week. I have been doing a lot of work on the fixture database and can say we might be around 10% complete. It will make my job easier. I have some good stuff coming down the line if we can overcome some time management issues.

Good Fortunes

Really

The U.S. Navy tried to get permission to board a North Korean merchant vessel that it suspected was carrying illicit weapon technology in the South China Sea, the Pentagon confirmed Monday.

The Navy reported that the North Korean Master said “No” when they asked his permission to board.

As a Former Marine I will try to say this without hurting any squid’s feelings. When you are asking the Master about boarding his ship try to remember the question is only small talk, and you are going to send Marines or Seals over to scope things out regardless. Every weapon that gets through will someday be used against us!

Dry Bits Week 23

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @9.94 +10.44% >>> OCNF @0.34 -12.82%, PRGN @2.03 -14.70%, TBSI @0.91 -23.52%. The equities had 15 Losers and the 1 Gainer telling us how bad the week was. The laggards really taking hits this week as share prices fell dramatically. I did not really see any reason for Globus to have gone up, yet it rose over 10% on a disastrous week. The bottom feeders trading TBSI had the rug pulled out from under them dropping huge. Paragon might be done being “corrected” as it has lost 32% of its value in the last 30 days. That is if you think PRGN was fairly price 1 month ago.
The Baltics: BDI 1418 -4.76%, BCI 1735 -10.52%, BPI 1927 +7.59%, BSI 1348 -6.06%, BHSI 749 -2.09%. The big ladies cannot hold the recent gains and drop back under ops cost. The panasisters had the only good week as all the other indices fell, even though the supras had some exceptionally nice fixtures for the mix.
The Fixtures: Ore =18, Coal =6, T/C =79, Period =15, Sugar =1, Bauxite =1, total =120. The ore chores exactly matched last week, meanwhile coal runs improved to almost healthy volume. All in all the demand simply is not at a level we call normal. This time of year we normally run around 150 fixtures per week, so although this week’s total of 120 is low, it is way better than last weeks 95.
Top Period Rate vs. spot.
Capes: Scope trading 12 MOS $11,000 vs. $9,758.
Pmax: Atlantic Horizon 4 – 6 MOS $15,500 vs. $15,266.
Smax: Prabhu Lal 3 – 5 MOS $13,000 vs. $14170.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =24, Post P =4, Kmax =5, Pmax =49, Smax =22, Hmax =8, Hsize =4, Bulker =3, Total =120. The best news here is simply VLOC =0.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated last week’s fixture reports. Navios Stellar, Poseidon, Navios Celestial, M/V Bonita. I observed a whole bunch of soy and corn fields under water as I traveled around this weekend. It was sad to think all the damage I was seeing is not even what has been mentioned in the news. Corn is going to get real tight.
I read that 4 mature capes were traded to the breakers just this last week. SWEET!! There are years that have gone by with less Capesize scrapping.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader