Week 49

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  GLBS 4.22 (+12.53%) DSX 7.97 (+4.86%) SFL 10.87 (+4.31%) >>>
PRGN 0.70 (-6.66%) SHIP 2.56 (-6.90%) EGLE 1.08 (-8.47%). 
No  active T&B alerts.  Paragon slapped  with delisting notice, PRGN Reverse split within 6 Months.

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1922 (+3.00%) BCI 3697 (+8.44%) BPI 1713 (+0.70%) BSI 1230 (-7.86%) BHSI 602 (-3.37%).   The BHSI is at its lowest value in over a year!

The Fixtures:  Ore =17, Coal =3, T/C =91, Period =12, Bauxite =1, total =124. 

                        Best Done Period vs. Spot Rate

Capes:  Alpha Cozmos     5-7 MOS   $20,750  vs.  $31,118.

Pmax:  Xin Shun             70 Days      $21,500  vs.  $13,472.

Smax:  Equinox Dream   4-6 MOS   $11,300   vs.  $13,366.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =4, Kmax =12, Pmax =44, Smax =26, Hmax =3, Hsize =3, Bulkers =3, Total =124.

Ski Notes:  The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports, Baltic Bear, Nord Hercules, Great Eagle, Genco Leader, Yasa Eagle, Ocean Emperor.  For the folks paying close attention to TORM the company has chartered a Pannie on T/C for $15,500 daily running some ore out of Tubarao.

Good Fortunes

VLOC Taking On Water

 Ahoy There!

RIO DE JANEIRO/SEOUL, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The world's largest iron-ore vessel is disabled and could sink in a port where Brazil's Vale, the world top producer, loads about 10 percent of global supplies of the commodity, shipping agents and the ship's operator said.

The Vale Beijing, a 361-metre-long vessel that can carry 400,000 tonnes of iron ore, has a leak in a ballast tank, operator STX Pan Ocean said. Shipping agents told Reuters the vessel had ruptured its hull.

The incident at Ponta da Madeira Port near Sao Luis, Brazil, is another blow to a multi-billion-dollar plan by Vale to develop a fleet of 35 giant iron ore carriers to compete with Australian producers for market share in China, the world's largest iron-ore consumer.

The first in the 400,000 deadweight-tonne class of vessels was blocked by Chinese authorities from docking in China earlier this year.

"Sinking is the worst-case scenario," said a spokesman for STX Group, the parent of STX Pan Ocean. "But we believe that the situation is not that serious."

The Vale Beijing is carrying enough iron ore to make the steel for nearly 3-1/2 Golden Gate bridges. If it sank or faced more problems, it could delay operations at the port, which is responsible for nearly 10 percent of the world's 1 billion tonnes of annual sea-borne iron-ore shipments.

The Panamanian-registered ship, which had been due to depart on Sunday bound for Rotterdam, is expected to be moved to an anchorage area for repairs, Vale said in a statement late on Monday.

SOURCE: Reuters

Week 48

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  NM @3.90 (+21.49%), EXM @1.97 (+19.39%), NMM @15.42 (+14.22%), >>>  SBLK @1.11 (-9.01%), NEWL @0.65 (-9.72%), FREE @0.61 (-21.79%).  The market was moved for Angels holding company Navios Maritime by the headline “JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage of the stock with an overweight rating.”.  It should also be noted that the gentleman on TV (Mr. Cramer) favorably mentioned the 3$ stock. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1866 (+3.26%), BCI 3409 (+11.80), BPI 1701 (-5.18%),

BSI 1335 (-3.26%), BHSI 623 (-2.50%).  The cape index carries the Baltic as all three smaller classes lose steam.  This is surprising with the grain activity being reported in the USG at healthy volumes, I had expected the Handies and Supras to be performing better.  Well I was wrong and that bodes very badly for some cash strapped owners.

The Fixtures:  Ore =21, Coal =6, T/C =66, Period =11, Grain =1, total =105.  The “Ore chores” volume slipped 12% from 4 week average, and coal fell off 45% in the absence of major smokers like TaiPower.  The T/C numbers come in soft and no capes found period employment leaving us real fortunate that the week was a positive for the equities.

                        Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates

Capes:  none reported                                           $29,010.

Pmax:  Capt. Evangelos  4-6 MOS  $23,000  vs.  $13,979.

Smax:  Dumun                 3-5 MOS $13,750   vs.  $14,408.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =28, P/P =3, Kmax =10, Pmax =38, Smax =18,

Hmax =1, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, total =105.  I just saw an article TMT Friend Ohms Law had mentioned

Ski Notes:  The following “familiar” vessels populated the fixture reports; Genco Surprise, Thetis, Calipso, New Horizon, Saldanha, Poseidon, Navios Titan.  It should be noted we are respectful of all investment styles.  It remains our opinion that shipping equities are not well suited for typical long investors and investments in the sector should be made by attentive momentum traders. 

Good Fortunes

Ski 

Dry Bit

Ahoy There!

USDA Grain Report parts of;

“Shipments of wheat to Africa and Mexico increased as did soybean shipments to Japan and the Netherlands. Mississippi River and Texas Gulf inspections increased 9 and 90 percent, respectively, due mainly to more shipments of wheat from each region. However, grain inspections dropped 45 percent in the Pacific Northwest.”

“During the week ending November 24, 35 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 30 percent from last year. Fifty-eight vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 8 percent less than the same period last year.”

“During the week ending November 25, ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $57 per metric ton (mt), 1 percent less than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $31 per mt—3 percent less than the previous week.”

“Ocean rates for wheat shipped from the PNW to Japan increased just over 1 percent from the second quarter but dropped 10 percent from last year due to the slowdown in grain shipping (GTR, dated 11/10/11). Ocean rates for wheat shipped from the Gulf to Japan decreased slightly from the second quarter, and dropped 14 percent from last year due primarily to excess vessel supply and the slowdown in shipping of U.S. grain.”

”The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. On average, this includes nearly 45 percent of U.S.-grown wheat, 35 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans, and 20 percent of the U.S.-grown corn. Approximately 61 percent of the U.S. export grain shipments departed through the U.S. Gulf region in 2010.”

“In 2010, containers were used to transport 5 percent of total U.S. waterborne grain exports, and 7 percent of U.S. grain expo rts to Asia. Asia is the top destination for U.S. containerized grain exports—94 percent in 2010.”

Good Fortunes

Dry Bulk Equties Covered

BALT Baltic Trading Co 2 Capes 4 Smax 3 Hsize . DRYS Dryships Inc. 9 Capes 25 Pmax 2 Smax 4 Tankers 6 Drill rigs . DSX Diana Shipping Co. 8 Capes 1 P/Pmax 16 Pmax 14% Diana Containerships . EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping Co. 40 Smax 2 Hmax . ESEA Euroseas LTD 4 Pmax 1 Hmax 1 M/P 10 Containerships . EXM Excel Maritime Carriers LTD 7 Capes 14 Kmax 21 Pmax 2 Smax 3 Hsize . FREE FreeSeas Inc. 2 Hmax 6 Hsize . GLBS Globus Maritime Limited 1 Kmax 2 Pmax 4 Smax . GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Lim. 9 Capes 8 Pmax 17 Smax 6 Hmax 13 Hsize . GPRT Goldenport Holdings Inc. 1 Cape 1 P/Pmax 11 Smax 1 Hmax 12 Containerships London . ISH International Shipholding Corp Barges ro-ros Specialty ships . NEWL Newlead Holdings LTD 5 Capes 1 P/Pmax 2 Kmax 4 Pmax 1 Hsize 6 Product Tankers . NM Navios Maritime Holding Co. 10 Capes 3 Pmax 14 Smax NMM NMAU NSALU Navios Tanker Management Co. . NMM Navios Maritime Partners 6 Capes 9 Pmax 1 Smax Long Term Chartered In Fleet 2 Pmax from NM . PRGN Paragon Shipping Inc. 8 Pmax 2 Smax 2 Container newbuilds in work . SB Safe Bulkers 1 Cape 9 P/Pmax 3 Kmax 4 Pmax . SBLK Star Bulk Carriers Corp 7 Capes 8 Smax . SFL Ship Finance International 6 OBO 7 Hsize 5 Smax Tankers Container Offshore . SHIP Seanergy Maritime Holdings Inc. 4 Capes 3 Pmax 2 Smax 1 Hmax 10 Hsize several hsize vessels are actually bulkers . TOPS Top Ships Inc. 2 Capes 6 Product Tankers . VLCCF Knightsbridge Tankers LTD 2 Capes 4 VLCC Tankers . ish is not really a bulker but they are cool

Grain Report Clips

Grain report clips During the week ending November 17, 38 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 33 percent from this week last year. Forty-eight vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 9 percent less than the same period last year. During the week ending November 18, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $57.50 per metric ton (mt), 2 percent more than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $32 per mt—3 percent more than the previous week. During March rail deliveries peaked for the year at 1,706 cars per week when flood conditions disrupted river operations and barge rates were at their highest. For this month, rail deliveries to Mississippi River ports are averaging 380 cars per week compared to last November’s average of 1,775 cars per week. For the remainder of the marketing year, a robust barge market is not likely; USDA projects U.S. corn exports at 1.6 billion bushels, a 9 year low.

Union Pacific Railroad (UP) has delayed opening its new grain transloading terminal at Yermo, CA, until late 2011 or early 2012. In their announcement, UP said the delay is because of a declining grain export market—grain traffic for all U.S. major railroads was down 14 percent in October compared to October 2010.

Dry Bits Week 47

Top & Bottom 5 Day: No Gainers >>> GNK 6.93 (-27.59%) EXM 1.65 (-30.38%) TBSI 0.40 (-34.43%). Well now, not a gainer in the entire sector… Do you ever ask yourself how in the heck you got involved in shipping? For the record EXM is being alerted iaw our 5Day criteria as a potential long trade. This is a scary trade if you agree with Boomer James. It is his belief the stock will go under a dollar within 6 months. TMT readers will recall last week we pointed out how DRYS got smacked a bit. Well they didn’t make our leader board but keep them in mind. The stock has fallen ~25 % since November 11th.

 The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1807 (-1.53%), BCI 3049 (-3.21%), BPI 1794 (+1.87%), BSI 1380 (+4.23%), BHSI 639 (-5.33%). The handies are getting spanked, and things are worse than I thought for the operators. We will be getting more informed on the subject and will report back to the readership.

 The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =11, T/C =68, Period =16, Scrap =1, HSS =1, Grain =1, total =122. btw I will soon be publishing a separate report dedicated to fixture analysis for those who may be interested. We had a strong week thanks to one of our favorite smokers Taipower. Again we see Midwest Soy Beans heading to China via the Panama. They (Chinese) are worried about becoming too dependent on our corn, but soy is a different product you see…
Best done period vs. spot rates;
Capes: Navios Koyo 1 Year $17,900 vs. $26,786
Pmax: Spar Neptun 4-6 MOS $22,000 vs. $14,635
Smax: Alitis 90-149 Days $12,500 vs. $14,491

 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =32, P/P =8, Kmax =7, Pmax =51, Smax =17, Hmax =1, Hsize =4, Bulkers =2, total =122.

 Ski Notes: The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports; Star Kappa, Navios Koyo, Thetis, Alitis. The lenders for TBSI are demanding the common shares go all the way to zero. “ even though our lenders have made it clear that they would not agree to a restructuring in which any value were attributed to our common equity.” Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX) had its price target lowered by analysts at Jefferies to $11.00. Really, Jefferies thinks Diana will see 11 in a year. Really!
Good Fortunes 
Ski