Dry Bits Week 14

Ahoy There! - -Week 14

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

GPRT 90.75 (+11.01%), BALT 4.30 (+3.61%), GOGL 5.25 (+1.16%), >>>

EXM 1.75 (-12.50%), EGLE 1.69 (-12.89%), ESEA 1.98 (-13.16%).  For those who still enjoy the fun of trading we alert you to BALT earning a spot on the Top & Bottom 5 Day leader board… 2 weeks in a row.  Those who shorted EGLE are probably anticipating the price will continue to drop this next week (correcting for the recent rise in share price) as does Boomer James.  However we remind readers the equity has recently been able to find support in spite of the apparent fundamentals.

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =928 down 0.64%, BCI =1507 up 6.73%, BPI =1036 down 1.43%,

BHSI =949 down 7.86%, BHSI =547 down 3.19%.  The Capes must have hit a rock while dragging the bottom as they bumped up while all others are sinking.

The Fixtures:

Ore =16, Coal =2, T/C =25, Period =5, Grain =1, total =49 

            Best done Period vs. spot

Capes:  Anagel Merchant  3-6 MOS $10,000  vs.   $5,852.

PMax:  Ribbon                   5-7 MOS  $10,000  vs.  $8,337.

SMax:  NIKOLAOS A       4-6 MOS  $12,250  vs.  $10,092.

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =0, KMax =2, PMax =13, SMax =11

HMax =1, Hsize =0, Bulker =1, total =49.

Ski Notes:  At the beginning of the week I had some hopes for a run-up before Easter.  Well!!!  There is only 3 days worth the fixtures this week.  The Anagel Merchant worst performing Capesize period fixture we have seen in a while.  Sign of things to come?

Good Fortunes

Ski

Ag Clip

During the week ending March 29, 34 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 33 percent from last year. Forty-one vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 18 percent less than the same period last year.

During the week ending March 30, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $51 per mt, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $29.50 per mt, unchanged from the previous week.

Ag Rates

U.S. Gulf China Heavy Grain Mar 1/10 50,000 46.65

U.S. Gulf Korea Heavy Grain Mar 1/10 55,000 46.00

U.S. Gulf Japan Heavy Grain Apr 1/10 58,000 46.00

U.S. Gulf Turkey Heavy Grain Feb 25/28 50,000 25.00

U.S. Gulf Kenya1 Wheat Jan 16/25 11,000 188.00

PNW China Grain Jan 10/20 55,000 26.75

St. Lawrence Nigeria Wheat Apr 5/15 25,000 45.00

Argentina Morocco Barley Apr 1/10 25,000 39.75

Australia Vietnam Grain Mar 1/10 60,000 19.00

Brazil Tunisia Wheat Feb 14/16 23,750 38.50

Brazil Taiwan Heavy Grain Feb 1/10 65,000 29.50

Brazil China Heavy Grain May 1/30 66,000 40.50

Brazil China Heavy Grain Apr 1/10 60,000 47.75

Brazil China Heavy Grain Mar 5/15 60,000 43.00

Brazil China Heavy Grain Mar 1/10 60,000 44.75

Brazil China Grain Mar 1/10 55,000 47.00

River Plate China Heavy Grain Feb 20/25 60,000 45.00

River Plate Egypt Med Corn Feb 25/ Mar 5 30,000 39.25

River Plate Morocco Corn Mar 25/30 25,000 35.00

Ukraine Japan Corn Apr 6/15 47,000 47.50

EXM Current Fleet Value

Excel Maritime Carriers LTD Present Day Fleet Valuation. 

The current market value of EXM vessels is considered using the latest values from CRS. 

The EXM fleet has 7 Capesize vessels ranging in age from 1 to 13 years old with an average age of 6.71 years.  The combined value of these 7 vessels calculates to $219.5M.

The EXM fleet has 14 Kamsarmax vessels ranging in age from 5 to 7 years old with an average age of 5.85 years.  The combined value of these 14 vessels calculates to $294.0M.

The EXM fleet has 21 Panamax vessels ranging in age from 8 to 19 years old with an average age of 14.95 years.  The combined value of these 21 vessels calculates to $253.0M.

The EXM fleet has 2 Supramax vessels aged 7 years.  The combined value of these 2 vessels calculates to $54.0M.

The EXM fleet has 3 Handymax vessels ranging in age from 14 to 27 years old.  The elder vessel is skewing the average age to 19.66 years old.  The combined value of these 3 vessels calculates to $25.5M.

The EXM fleet has a total of 47 vessels ranging in age from 1 to 27 years old with an average age of 10.83 years old.  The combined value of these 47 vessels calculates to $846M. 

The average age of a vessel is not included in any valuation calculations and is used for reporting purposes only.  EXM reported via sec filings it thought the fleet carrying value exceeded market value by $1.6B.  Our calculations show the carrying value presented in the balance sheet is overvalued by about $1.8B with a present day fleet value of around $846M. 

Good Fortunes

Ski

Week 13

Ahoy There!

Week #13 March 31^st 2012

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

EGLE @1.94 (+7.78%), EXM @2.00 (+4.71%), BALT @4.15 (+4.27%)>>>

FREE @1.05 (-2.78%), SBLK @0.90 (-4.26%), SHIP @3.32 (-6.48%).  The folks keeping score have got Eagle pulling off a double earning a short alert again.  There is a divergence between what the market performance of EGLE shares has been in contrast to what we know the future holds for the earnings. 

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =934 up 2.86%, BCI =1412 up 3.14%, BPI =1051 up 1.45%,

BSI =1030 down 0.48%, BHSI =565 up 2.54%.  The “Mother of all Indexes” our BDI is again up this week, but to quote our senior editor describing the progress in a slowly rising environment  “still a lot of wood to chop” because at these rates the only good is to discourage potential first time ship-owners from going out and buying a boat.  That is one good thing about low rates.  Trying hard to be positive…but

The Fixtures:

Ore =16, Coal =11, T/C =85, Period =9, HSS =1, Corn =1, Wheat =1,

Sugar =1, total =125.  The ore chores maintaining the 4 week average demand, meanwhile the coal runs are strong and have increased their average now up to 9.5 fixtures per week.  Nice to see some of the small bulker fixes get reported to the Baltic.  I do not remember the last time we documented a dry bulk sugar fixture.  Pretty Cool ya know. 

            Best Done Period vs. spot rates

Capes:  Successor                               8-12 MOS        $11,000  vs.  $4,940.

Pmax:  ROSALIA D'AMATO          4-6 MOS          $10,650  vs.  $8,348.

Smax:  Mare Trader                          3-5 MOS          $14,000 vs.$10,905.

HSize:  n/r                                           n/a                                 vs.  $8,576.

The Vessels: 

VLOC =1, Capes =23, Post P =5, KMax =13, PMax =47, SMax =20,

HMax =8, HSize =4, Bulkers =4, total =125.  It is noteworthy that a VLOC hit the fixtures this week potentially absorbing 2 capesize vessel employments.  Nice touch…

remember this is shipping and we must cut off our foot 2 spite ourselves. 

“Dammit… Jim” 

Ski Notes:

My good friend Ohms has released another fine article on his website.  The article is titled “The Law of Averages”.   If you have not paid our official TMT’s Dry Bulk Seer  a visit recently you may be remiss???   http://blog.littledief.com/

Good Fortunes

GNK

Genco Shipping Present Day Fleet Valuation:  The resale value of dry bulk vessels is considered utilizing the latest values from CRS. 

The GNK fleet has 9 Capesize vessels with the average age of 4 years old.  The oldest capesize vessel aged 5 years while the newest is 2 years old.  The combined value of these 9 vessels calculates to $341M.

            The GNK fleet has 8 Panamax vessels with an average age of 11.125 years old.  The oldest panamax vessel aged 14 years while the newest is 5 years old.  The combined value of these 8 vessels calculates to $130.8M.

            The GNK fleet has 17 Supramax vessels with an average age of 4 years old.  The oldest supra vessel aged 8 years while the newest is 1 year old.

The combined value of these 17 vessels calculates to $416M.

            The GNK fleet has 6 Handymax vessels with an average age of 14.33 years old.  The oldest handymax vessel aged 16 years while the newest is 11 years old.  The combined value of these 6 vessels calculates to $59.5M.

            The GNK fleet has 13 Handysize vessels with an average age of 7.3 years old.  The oldest handysize vessel aged 14 years while the newest is 1 year old.

The combined value of these 13 vessels calculates to $212M.

            The GNK fleet has a total combined present day value of $1,170.3M.  This does not include any consideration for the value of any period charter that may exist.  The average age is used for reporting only, and does not figure into any individual vessel value calculations.

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Week 12

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

EGLE @1.80 (+2.27%), GPRT @80.00 (+2.89%), ISH @22.65 (+0.71%) >>>

EXM @1.91 (-9.05%), SHIP @3.55 (-10.58%), FREE @1.08 (-16.28%). 

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =908 +4.85%, BCI =1369 -7.19%, BPI =1036 +8.25%, BSI =1035 +10.46%,

BHSI =551 +10.20%.

The Fixtures:

Ore =13, Coal =7, T/C =67, Period =12, Barley =1, Coke =1, total =101

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  PONTOTRITON      5-9 MOS         BCI Linked     vs. $4,708

PMax:  Clemene                     20-26 MOS     $10,450           vs. $8,212

SMax:  Mare Trader               3-5 MOS         $14,000           vs.  $10,708

Other:  none reported

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =25, Post Pmax =5, Kmax =6, Pmax =36, Smax =19, Hmax =2,

Hsize =4, Bulkers =4, total =101.

Ski Notes:  Folks keeping score are reminded EGLE has been top dog 2 weeks in a row outperforming the entire sector.  The trade alert is a given, short the equity if you can.

Time constrained the entire weekend.  My apology for the generic report.

Good Fortunes

Morning Report

The FFA’s are all slightly lower across the curve this Thursday morning.  The index has been released and yes our beloved BDI has broken 900 slamming the plate at 902.  The Capes again are retreating, while the three smaller classes are all green. 

For the record Boomer James is all over the fleet tables from GNK as he prepares a fleet valuation to be published here on the Ton Mile Trader as part of a series wherein we will examine all the publically traded company’s current fleet value.  Keep em honest we say!

Good Fortunes