Top + Bottom 5 Day: SHIP @0.497 +5.74%, SB @8.28 +4.81%, DSX @11.31 +1.07%, >>>GNK @7.83 -6.00%, BALT @6.74 -8.04%, TBSI @1.32 -22.35%. Peter Pans (Peter C. Georgiopoulos) magic powder bag must be empty. We still are amazed at the strategy of him creating a dropdown (BALT) then deploying those assets in the spot market knowing full well rates would come under heavy pressure from the order book and delivery dates. He could have followed Angel’s lead (NM & NMM) and protected/improved the GNK balance sheet, but instead threw caution to the wind and rolled the dice. I don’t think so… Peter knew exactly what he was doing, and why. How he can look his common share investors in the eye remains a mystery to some industry observers. We are hopeful TMT Guest Editor Ohms Law will find the time to look at one of his favorite’s Safe Bulkers and share his projections and price targets with our readers some time in the near future. We must look into putting Ohms on the TonMileTrader payroll.
The Baltics: BDI @1306 -2.53%, BCI @1494 -4.59%, BPI @1720 -2.76%, BSI @1392 +0.43%, BHSI @788 -0.50%. The Cape Owners have a bad week at the fixture table as charterers are able to depress rates even as they bring healthy demand. The cape activity was by far the highest so far this year, yet the rates slide ~5%. That had to hurt. The Handies are giving back some hard pressed gains and now seem aligned to a sub 800 summer. What a Bummer!
The Fixtures: Ore =28, Coal =7, Baux =1, Urea =2, Corn =1, Maize =1, T/C =106, Period =15, Total =161. The best week of fixtures we have seen in a long time as the Ore Chores came in strong, coupled with healthy t/c volume. Our favorite coal burner TaiPower threw us a curveball when they did not show for a couple weeks in a row. The coal runs improved over last 4 week avg. but did not meet our expectations. I never did find out what they were doing fixing a cape to Taiwan when I did not think they could handle a post pana due to port limitations. Boomer James now indicates he will report back next week on the island’s port infrastructure.
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Guo May Trading 11-13 MOS $11,500 spot = $ 6,002.
Pmax: Fortune E Trading 3-5 MOS $22,000 spot = $13,797.
Smax: Ocean Leader Trading 4-6 MOS $20,250 spot = $14,552.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =37, Post P =4, Kmax =14, Pmax =54, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, Total =161.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Navios Orion, Star Zeta, Genco Vigor, Bonita, Star Reliance. We must mention a surprise fixture from Vale chartering the Catalina on an ore chore running San Nicolas > Rotterdam paying USD$36. We have not seen the mining giant fix much publically of late. I believe they are still puttin on the tonmiles, but do not report the fixtures to the Baltic. I always want to compare Vales entry into the shipping business with the fate of US Steel when they also attempted to be a shipping company. The steel producer’s sizable fleet became the original Navios after they lost the desire to be a shipper and concentrate on just making steel. Btw neither I nor TMT friend Bimco shipping analyst Peter Sand has found very much concrete information on the USS fleet performance. Any scoop ?
Good Fortunes
Ski
Dry Bulk Shipping Market Observations & Commentary
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
Dry Bits Week 18
Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @3.05 +3.04%, NM @5.43 +2.64%, FREE @2.63 +1.54%, >>> BALT @7.33 -8.48%, SHIP @0.47 -12.96%, OCNF @0.48 -14.28%. The Equities had 6 gainers and 10 losers for the again short report week. We only have 3 days of fixtures for analysis compared to a normal 5 day report.
The Baltics: BDI @1340 +5.59%, BCI @1566 +0.12%, BPI @1769 +22.0 %, BSI @1386 -0.28%, BHSI @792 -0.62%. The Panasisters again benefitting from ECSA > Cont. and should be supported thru next week as the coal burners step up to the fixture table. We had thought the Handies would have seen more work down South supporting another shot at the 800 mark. Not!
The Fixtures: Ore =10, Coal =2, Bauxite =2, Sugar =1, T/C =89, Period =17, Total =121. The ore chores fall a long way from last weeks 25. I think we will see a bounce next week in coal runs as they have been sub par 2 weeks running. The flooding in the Midwest has forced the Corp to close parts of the Miss River killing the USG. Btw as pointed out earlier in Dry Bits this year’s corn planting is way behind last years. $$$ Corn could get really tight, especially if a lot of acreage resorts to soy. Boomer James reports the local fields are way too wet with more rain coming next few days. The tractors would sink to China!
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Trinity Star 11 – 13 MOS $13,500 $6,342.
Pmax: Glyfada 1 3 – 4 MOS $21,500 $13,825.
Smax: Toxotis 4 – 6 MOS $15,000 $14,334.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =56, Smax =22, Hmax =7, Hsize =3, Bulker <30 =1, Total =121.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Kronos, Emerald, Golden Trader, Golden Strength, Mineral Star, Torm Trader, Navios Titan, Golden Eclipse, Genco Vigour, Corona, Trinity Star, Star Breeze. The crew at Eagle has chartered the Clymene for USD13,000 daily running Ghent > UKC. Good luck to those at home trying to keep track of the shipper’s revenue streams. During the week I read a discussion between a trader and a long, wherein the long concluded the trader’s strategy of hitting the equities for small gains was cheap or amateurish compared to the logical buy and hold strategy. In my opinion it is more fun playing the momentum game, and more importantly, in my portfolio the money tied up holding some Bulker shares has been outperformed by the money made from trading in and out of various shippers. That does not give me the attitude that my strategy is superior! Just plain more fun. At Dry Bits we maintain the bulker equities are currently better suited for attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @3.05 +3.04%, NM @5.43 +2.64%, FREE @2.63 +1.54%, >>> BALT @7.33 -8.48%, SHIP @0.47 -12.96%, OCNF @0.48 -14.28%. The Equities had 6 gainers and 10 losers for the again short report week. We only have 3 days of fixtures for analysis compared to a normal 5 day report.
The Baltics: BDI @1340 +5.59%, BCI @1566 +0.12%, BPI @1769 +22.0 %, BSI @1386 -0.28%, BHSI @792 -0.62%. The Panasisters again benefitting from ECSA > Cont. and should be supported thru next week as the coal burners step up to the fixture table. We had thought the Handies would have seen more work down South supporting another shot at the 800 mark. Not!
The Fixtures: Ore =10, Coal =2, Bauxite =2, Sugar =1, T/C =89, Period =17, Total =121. The ore chores fall a long way from last weeks 25. I think we will see a bounce next week in coal runs as they have been sub par 2 weeks running. The flooding in the Midwest has forced the Corp to close parts of the Miss River killing the USG. Btw as pointed out earlier in Dry Bits this year’s corn planting is way behind last years. $$$ Corn could get really tight, especially if a lot of acreage resorts to soy. Boomer James reports the local fields are way too wet with more rain coming next few days. The tractors would sink to China!
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Trinity Star 11 – 13 MOS $13,500 $6,342.
Pmax: Glyfada 1 3 – 4 MOS $21,500 $13,825.
Smax: Toxotis 4 – 6 MOS $15,000 $14,334.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =56, Smax =22, Hmax =7, Hsize =3, Bulker <30 =1, Total =121.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Kronos, Emerald, Golden Trader, Golden Strength, Mineral Star, Torm Trader, Navios Titan, Golden Eclipse, Genco Vigour, Corona, Trinity Star, Star Breeze. The crew at Eagle has chartered the Clymene for USD13,000 daily running Ghent > UKC. Good luck to those at home trying to keep track of the shipper’s revenue streams. During the week I read a discussion between a trader and a long, wherein the long concluded the trader’s strategy of hitting the equities for small gains was cheap or amateurish compared to the logical buy and hold strategy. In my opinion it is more fun playing the momentum game, and more importantly, in my portfolio the money tied up holding some Bulker shares has been outperformed by the money made from trading in and out of various shippers. That does not give me the attitude that my strategy is superior! Just plain more fun. At Dry Bits we maintain the bulker equities are currently better suited for attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Week 17
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @2.96 +4.96%, NMM @21.30 +3.64%, NM @5.29 +1.73% >>>
GLBS @8.93 -0.77%, SB @8.15 -1.80%, TBSI @1.72 -2.82%. Navios Partners has been a T&B5 leader four consecutive weeks running. Investors are confident Angel will harvest another tonnage infusion, courtesy of the holding company. I think Partners remains on a suspension of sorts from the omnibus agreement for a prior infraction. It sounded silly when NM announced it, and it sounds silly repeating it today. Anyway… Surf is Up!
The Baltics: BDI @1269 +1.19%, BCI @1564 +1.55%, BPI @1450 +5.30%, BSI @1390 -0.78%, BHSI @797 -0.62%. The Panasisters catch a few waves running ECSA > China. The Handies can’t hold 800 and see the first negative week in over 2 months. With the yards spitting out ships daily (even after slippage) I was surprised by this positive week. Every week it will become mathematically harder to keep even keel at the rate scale.
The Fixtures: Ore =25, Coal =2, Bauxite =1, HSS =1, T/C =71, Period =11, Total =111.
Top Weekly Period Rates and spot.
Capes: KM Kobe 6 – 8 MOS $12,500 spot $6,698
Pmax: Alpha Happiness 4 – 6 MOS $14,750 spot $11,620
Smax: Darya Mahesh 60 – 120 Days $22,750 spot $14,530
The ore chores came in strong considering the shortened week. The coal got scarce with major burners holding back. I am not sure how often this happens but I observed zero fixtures departing USG during the week? Flooding on the Miss River Im thinking plays a big part.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =31, Post P =2, Kmax =7, Pmax =47, Smax =19, Hmax =2, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =1, Total =111.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the weeks fixture reports. Genco Aquitaine, Navios Sagitarious, Genco Titus, Genco Maximus. The folks who closely follow NMM will be interested in the negative counterparty performance indicated by the Sagitarious being relet for $12,500 daily while the Partners are being paid $26,195 net of commissions daily. Insured or not, counterparty performance remains critical. Folks observing Eagle will wonder about the company chartering a vessel named Topaz running USG > Imingham at $12,000 plus 400K bonus bucks. Hard to believe with all their tonnage none could catch the gulf loading date?
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Dry Bits Week 16
Top & Bottom 5 Day: OCNF @0.58 +3.57%, NMM @20.99 +2.64%, >>> BALT @8.04 -4.05%, PRGN @2.80 -4.10%, GNK @8.17 -15.59%. The leader board shows Navios Partners for the third consecutive week earning the t&b alert status. It has been our experience that the range bound bulker equities will fall (almost always) after being a leader for 3 straight. Peter Pan sure had a bad week with his bulkers. The bottom feeders are watching Genco with sincerity. “Wait for the magic dust to settle” sounds off Boomer James, in anticipation of more shenanigans. Dry Equities 14 losers vs. 2 gainers. Ouch!!
The Baltics: BDI @1254 -3.24%, BCI @1540 -1.53%, BPI @1377 -9.04%, BSI @1401 -0.91%, BHSI @802 +0.75%. It took Ten consecutive weeks but the Baltic Handysize Index has crossed the 800 mark. This week (like several others lately) showed Red for all other indices with the BPI losing the most.
The Fixtures: Ore =4, Coal =5, Corn =1, Grain =1, T/C =25, Period =7, total =43.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes : Aqua Princess 4 – 6 MOS $12,500 vs. $6,530.
Pmax: Go Public 3 – 5 MOS $16,000 vs. $11,335.
Smax: Pisti 5 – 7 MOS $15,500 vs. $14,683.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =8, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =3, Pmax =17, Smax =7, Hmax =1, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =2, total =43.
Ski Notes: The Holiday shortened week has yielded limited data compared to our normal analysis. I noticed our fav coal burner taipower has chartered a Cape TBN @125,000 Newcastle > Taiwan USD 12.4. The last I checked there was no bulk port that could handle a big girl on the island. Cargill reportedly fixed a 60K Grain run loading Miss. River to Egypt.
Happy Easter
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1254 -3.24%, BCI @1540 -1.53%, BPI @1377 -9.04%, BSI @1401 -0.91%, BHSI @802 +0.75%. It took Ten consecutive weeks but the Baltic Handysize Index has crossed the 800 mark. This week (like several others lately) showed Red for all other indices with the BPI losing the most.
The Fixtures: Ore =4, Coal =5, Corn =1, Grain =1, T/C =25, Period =7, total =43.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes : Aqua Princess 4 – 6 MOS $12,500 vs. $6,530.
Pmax: Go Public 3 – 5 MOS $16,000 vs. $11,335.
Smax: Pisti 5 – 7 MOS $15,500 vs. $14,683.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =8, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =3, Pmax =17, Smax =7, Hmax =1, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =2, total =43.
Ski Notes: The Holiday shortened week has yielded limited data compared to our normal analysis. I noticed our fav coal burner taipower has chartered a Cape TBN @125,000 Newcastle > Taiwan USD 12.4. The last I checked there was no bulk port that could handle a big girl on the island. Cargill reportedly fixed a 60K Grain run loading Miss. River to Egypt.
Happy Easter
Ski
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Dry Bits Week 15
Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @1.77 +7.92%, PRGN @2.92 +3.91%, NMM @20.45 +1.03% >>
GNK @9.68 -7.63%, SB @8.31 -11.50%, OCNF @ 0.56 -15.15%. Looks like the SB offering has been cooked.
The tweendeckers (TBSI) recovering almost 8% after being on a t&b laggard alert, to lead all bulkers for the week. Ski points for Boomer. Cousin Eddie at OCNF should be ashamed of himself. He is not. He can’t help it, in his blood ya know! Navios Partners has made the leader board 2 weeks in a row qualifying it for a t&b alert. Partners does seem to hold gains better than a lot of others. Maybe let them hit 3 weeks in a row, and then its hammer time.
The Baltics: BDI @1296 -5.81%, BCI @1564 -2.97%, BPI @1514 -10.73%, BSI @1414 -2.95%,
BHSI @796 +1.27%. The panasisters are just rolling over and giving it away. The handies now have 9 consecutive weeks without a rate loss. The wheat fixtures coming in will surely drive the BHSI over the 800 plateau? Yet as we say that, we acknowledge one of the wheat fixtures was actually a Supra steaming to Israel. Boomer James reports somewhat stoically that “Those with the gear, shall persevere!”
The Fixtures: Ore =17, Coal =4, T/C =99, Period =12, Wheat =2, HSS =1, total =135. The ore chores fall from last weeks 19 (and that was a slow week) making this week…slower. Best T/C activity since week 7 when we had 106. Triple digit t/c numbers are expected most times of year. The period volume dipped again, and it showed up in the diminished rates achieved. Capes are still being inked at more than double spot.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes: Blue Cho Oyo trading 11 – 13 MOS @$15,000 spot =$7,030.
Pmax: S. Nicole trading 11-13 MOS @$15,500 spot =$12,407.
Smax: Filia Joy trading 3 – 5 MOS @$18,500 Spot =$14,870.
The Vessels: VLOC =2, Capes =27, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =53, Smax =22, Hmax =12,
Hsize =3, Bulkers <30 =6, total =135. The really big ladies (VLOC) captured a couple fixtures denying the Capes a shot at the 30 mark. The bulkers <30K enjoying the early wheat harvest boost in employment. Supra vessels trying to hold in USG amidst an armada of sister ships advertising prompt. We read that 5 bulkers a day for the rest of the year are supposed to hit the water. Way to go owners, way to go!
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Bonita, Navios Altamira, Torm Rolholm, Ionian Eagle, Thor Freindship, Thor Dynamic. The folks who closely follow Navios will be interested in their chartering of the Fair Lady hauling coal from Baltimore >> India @41.25. Is the coal market getting bonkers or did Navios slip and have to cover a COA when they did not have a vessel available? Angel had one vessel lose a main motor a while back if I remember correct. That may explain the expensive charter they incurred. This week also produced a VLOC fixture for the 208,000dwt Hyundai Frontier trading 8 – 9 MOS for $16,000 daily. I bet the owner has reflected on the situation that his vessel holds ~ four Supramax cargoes worth of tonnage, yet earns close to the same as just one Supra. It’s the gear that grabs!
Good Fortunes
Ski
GNK @9.68 -7.63%, SB @8.31 -11.50%, OCNF @ 0.56 -15.15%. Looks like the SB offering has been cooked.
The tweendeckers (TBSI) recovering almost 8% after being on a t&b laggard alert, to lead all bulkers for the week. Ski points for Boomer. Cousin Eddie at OCNF should be ashamed of himself. He is not. He can’t help it, in his blood ya know! Navios Partners has made the leader board 2 weeks in a row qualifying it for a t&b alert. Partners does seem to hold gains better than a lot of others. Maybe let them hit 3 weeks in a row, and then its hammer time.
The Baltics: BDI @1296 -5.81%, BCI @1564 -2.97%, BPI @1514 -10.73%, BSI @1414 -2.95%,
BHSI @796 +1.27%. The panasisters are just rolling over and giving it away. The handies now have 9 consecutive weeks without a rate loss. The wheat fixtures coming in will surely drive the BHSI over the 800 plateau? Yet as we say that, we acknowledge one of the wheat fixtures was actually a Supra steaming to Israel. Boomer James reports somewhat stoically that “Those with the gear, shall persevere!”
The Fixtures: Ore =17, Coal =4, T/C =99, Period =12, Wheat =2, HSS =1, total =135. The ore chores fall from last weeks 19 (and that was a slow week) making this week…slower. Best T/C activity since week 7 when we had 106. Triple digit t/c numbers are expected most times of year. The period volume dipped again, and it showed up in the diminished rates achieved. Capes are still being inked at more than double spot.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes: Blue Cho Oyo trading 11 – 13 MOS @$15,000 spot =$7,030.
Pmax: S. Nicole trading 11-13 MOS @$15,500 spot =$12,407.
Smax: Filia Joy trading 3 – 5 MOS @$18,500 Spot =$14,870.
The Vessels: VLOC =2, Capes =27, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =53, Smax =22, Hmax =12,
Hsize =3, Bulkers <30 =6, total =135. The really big ladies (VLOC) captured a couple fixtures denying the Capes a shot at the 30 mark. The bulkers <30K enjoying the early wheat harvest boost in employment. Supra vessels trying to hold in USG amidst an armada of sister ships advertising prompt. We read that 5 bulkers a day for the rest of the year are supposed to hit the water. Way to go owners, way to go!
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Bonita, Navios Altamira, Torm Rolholm, Ionian Eagle, Thor Freindship, Thor Dynamic. The folks who closely follow Navios will be interested in their chartering of the Fair Lady hauling coal from Baltimore >> India @41.25. Is the coal market getting bonkers or did Navios slip and have to cover a COA when they did not have a vessel available? Angel had one vessel lose a main motor a while back if I remember correct. That may explain the expensive charter they incurred. This week also produced a VLOC fixture for the 208,000dwt Hyundai Frontier trading 8 – 9 MOS for $16,000 daily. I bet the owner has reflected on the situation that his vessel holds ~ four Supramax cargoes worth of tonnage, yet earns close to the same as just one Supra. It’s the gear that grabs!
Good Fortunes
Ski
Friday, April 8, 2011
Dry Bits Week 14
Top & Bottom 5 Day: EXM 4.56 +7.80%, DRYS 5.03 +5.23%, SHIP 0.61 +1.66%, >>> NM 5.66 -2.91%, OCNF 0.66 -4.34%, TBSI 1.64 -8.88%. The folks holding DRYS are smiling gaining over 5% during a bad BDI week. Readers are reminded TBSI has made the T&B5 as a laggard two consecutive weeks. This qualifies the tweeners for a TonMileTrader alert. Boomer James is stiring up the bottomfeeders for another strike I believe.
The Baltics: BDI @1376 -9.47%, BCI @1612 -10.04%, BPI @1696 -11.89%, BSI @1457 -3.57%, BHSI @786 no change. The Panasisters taking it on the chin outpacing the Capesize rate loss as weekly volume remains significantly depressed for the Panamax market. After 8 consecutive weeks of Handysize rates rising The BHSI was held to no change as negative sentiment carried the week across the classes. The reality of the tonnage supply and numbers of vessels available promptly takes the wind out of the owners sails.
The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =9, T/C =87, Period =18, Corn =2, total =135. The ore chores came off a bit compared to last week but weve seen worse. Surprised and glad to see our favorite coal burner Taipower was back in the game after also hitting hard last week. Period volume was better but still far short of our expectations. Both loads of corn originated near DryBits headquarters in the Midwest, then down the Mississippi River sailing Algeria.
Top Period Rates this week vs. spot
Capes; Blue Cho Oyo 11 – 13 MOS $16,000 vs. $8,381
Pmax; Filippo Lembo 5 – 7 MOS $23,000 vs. $13,937
Smax; Magnum Energy 3 – 5 MOS $17,000 vs. $15,345
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =28, Post P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =45, Smax =34, Hmax =8, Hsize =5, Bulkers <30 =4, total =135. The big girls kept par with last weeks fair showing. The Panamax vessel demand comes in below healthy levels and we note a number of mid sized ports remain out of service. The Supras nailed 17% more fixtures compared to last week on improved ECSA activity.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Golden Seas, Bonafide, Elpis, Coronis, Akmi. Surfing the public discussion boards I saw an interesting headline to a thread about DRYS being unaffected by the BDI. As long as any company is operating dry bulk vessels, the BDI is directly involved in share price performance. There are no equities in our sector that are not married to the Baltic, and to observe any chart divergence is only temporary at best. Shipping always reverts to the mean, and the Baltic is our oscillator.
Good Fortunes
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1376 -9.47%, BCI @1612 -10.04%, BPI @1696 -11.89%, BSI @1457 -3.57%, BHSI @786 no change. The Panasisters taking it on the chin outpacing the Capesize rate loss as weekly volume remains significantly depressed for the Panamax market. After 8 consecutive weeks of Handysize rates rising The BHSI was held to no change as negative sentiment carried the week across the classes. The reality of the tonnage supply and numbers of vessels available promptly takes the wind out of the owners sails.
The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =9, T/C =87, Period =18, Corn =2, total =135. The ore chores came off a bit compared to last week but weve seen worse. Surprised and glad to see our favorite coal burner Taipower was back in the game after also hitting hard last week. Period volume was better but still far short of our expectations. Both loads of corn originated near DryBits headquarters in the Midwest, then down the Mississippi River sailing Algeria.
Top Period Rates this week vs. spot
Capes; Blue Cho Oyo 11 – 13 MOS $16,000 vs. $8,381
Pmax; Filippo Lembo 5 – 7 MOS $23,000 vs. $13,937
Smax; Magnum Energy 3 – 5 MOS $17,000 vs. $15,345
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =28, Post P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =45, Smax =34, Hmax =8, Hsize =5, Bulkers <30 =4, total =135. The big girls kept par with last weeks fair showing. The Panamax vessel demand comes in below healthy levels and we note a number of mid sized ports remain out of service. The Supras nailed 17% more fixtures compared to last week on improved ECSA activity.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Golden Seas, Bonafide, Elpis, Coronis, Akmi. Surfing the public discussion boards I saw an interesting headline to a thread about DRYS being unaffected by the BDI. As long as any company is operating dry bulk vessels, the BDI is directly involved in share price performance. There are no equities in our sector that are not married to the Baltic, and to observe any chart divergence is only temporary at best. Shipping always reverts to the mean, and the Baltic is our oscillator.
Good Fortunes
Ski
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Week 13
Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @8.90 +6.07%, NMM @20.66 +3.87%, NM @5.83 +3.55% >>>PRGN @2.84 -4.69%, SHIP @0.60 -4.76%, TBSI @1.80 -15.09%. The leader board is no big surprise, but rest assured the tweendeckers being sacked for over 15% has garnered the attention of more than one bottomfeeder. The dry bulk equities had 5 gainers and 11 losers for the week. The Economou controlled Dryships weathered their earnings report better than we expected. It had been our opinion that the share price would have made the laggard board with double digits losses as investors digested the report. Maybe I read it wrong?
The Baltics: BDI @1520 -5.36%, BCI @1792 -2.38%, BPI @1925 -7.36%, BSI @1511 -5.73%, BHSI @786 +0.76%. The Panasisters lost ground with reduced demand, signaling charterers have the upper hand at the fixture table. Rates also decaying thru competition for cargoes, AKA lots of Ladies to pick from. The little ones push to 8 consecutive weeks of BHSI rates improving. The 800 barrier is proving elusive.
The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =6, T/C =81, Period =13, total =124. The ore chores almost doubled over last week with the Capes grabbing all but one of the ore fixtures. The coal demand was almost nonexistent without our bud Taipower who took 2/3rds of the coal runs. Remember next week they won’t be buying the fuel if they follow their normal demand. The BPI is perhaps as heavily influenced by coal as the BCI is by ore.
Top Period rates vs. spot
Capes; Semirio trading 2 years $17,250, spot $10,371.
Pmax; Navios Star trading 4-6 MOS $18,500, spot $15,807.
Smax; Port Maubert trading 1 year $18,000, spot $15,921.
The Vessels: VLOC =1, Capes =28, Post Pmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =42, SMax =29, Hmax =9, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30 =3, total =124. The Supras seeing work in USG but still waiting for the jump that was predicted. The Panamax fleet had 15 less fixtures compared to last week and it showed up in London.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Akili, Calm Seas, Navios Star, Torm Salthome, Nirefs, Aliki, Baltic Leopard, Thor Endeavor, Navios Armonia, Heron, Genco Tiberious. Once again we see Navios Partners among the leaders and remind folks about this company if you wish to hold a shipper long. I have swing traded (surfed) NMM several times always thinking if I was going to hold a shipper long, it would be this one. Boomer James has thrown GNK up on his dry erase board next to TBSI. Alarming!
Good Fortunes
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1520 -5.36%, BCI @1792 -2.38%, BPI @1925 -7.36%, BSI @1511 -5.73%, BHSI @786 +0.76%. The Panasisters lost ground with reduced demand, signaling charterers have the upper hand at the fixture table. Rates also decaying thru competition for cargoes, AKA lots of Ladies to pick from. The little ones push to 8 consecutive weeks of BHSI rates improving. The 800 barrier is proving elusive.
The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =6, T/C =81, Period =13, total =124. The ore chores almost doubled over last week with the Capes grabbing all but one of the ore fixtures. The coal demand was almost nonexistent without our bud Taipower who took 2/3rds of the coal runs. Remember next week they won’t be buying the fuel if they follow their normal demand. The BPI is perhaps as heavily influenced by coal as the BCI is by ore.
Top Period rates vs. spot
Capes; Semirio trading 2 years $17,250, spot $10,371.
Pmax; Navios Star trading 4-6 MOS $18,500, spot $15,807.
Smax; Port Maubert trading 1 year $18,000, spot $15,921.
The Vessels: VLOC =1, Capes =28, Post Pmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =42, SMax =29, Hmax =9, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30 =3, total =124. The Supras seeing work in USG but still waiting for the jump that was predicted. The Panamax fleet had 15 less fixtures compared to last week and it showed up in London.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Akili, Calm Seas, Navios Star, Torm Salthome, Nirefs, Aliki, Baltic Leopard, Thor Endeavor, Navios Armonia, Heron, Genco Tiberious. Once again we see Navios Partners among the leaders and remind folks about this company if you wish to hold a shipper long. I have swing traded (surfed) NMM several times always thinking if I was going to hold a shipper long, it would be this one. Boomer James has thrown GNK up on his dry erase board next to TBSI. Alarming!
Good Fortunes
Ski
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