Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @1.14 +23.91%, GNK @7.02 +7.33%, DRYS @3.94 +4.78% >>> OCNF @0.32 -8.57%, EGLE @2.31 -9.05%, FREE @2.00 -10.71%. The tweendecker operator TBSI is way out in front of the leaders pushing for almost a 25% gain in 5 days. The folks waiting for Genco too hit a bottom might consider this an alert. It was no secret Boomer James has been sniffing out Peter Pan’s equity, waiting to join any overcorrection swing. It is sad to see Eagle listed among the laggards with such a fine fleet… Think of the implications!
The Baltics: BDI 1423 +0.35%, BCI 1824 +5.12%, BPI 1914 -0.67%, BSI 1319 -2.15%, BHSI 734 -2.0%. The BDI averages out the four sub-indices for a flat week. The Capes needed a kick in the rear as many vessels could not run at
the present spot rate without losing money.
The Fixtures: Ore =11, Coal =2, T/C =59, Period =7, total = 79. We had only four days of fixture reports come in and still we say this was the weakest demand since 2nd week of Jan. The market is not showing us any good indicators at this time.
Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates
Capes: Anagel Explorer trading 9 – 11 MOS @$10,250 vs. $8842
Pmax: Dora Schulte trading 3 – 5 MOS @ $22,500 vs. $15,867
Smax: None Reported
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =18, PP =3, Kmax =9, Pmax =26, Smax =20, Hmax =2, Hsize =0, Bulk =1.
Ski Notes: The Akili was the only familiar vessel fixed in the shortened week. I have been doing a lot of work on the fixture database and can say we might be around 10% complete. It will make my job easier. I have some good stuff coming down the line if we can overcome some time management issues.
Good Fortunes
Dry Bulk Shipping Market Observations & Commentary
Saturday, June 18, 2011
Monday, June 13, 2011
Really
The U.S. Navy tried to get permission to board a North Korean merchant vessel that it suspected was carrying illicit weapon technology in the South China Sea, the Pentagon confirmed Monday.
The Navy reported that the North Korean Master said “No” when they asked his permission to board.
As a Former Marine I will try to say this without hurting any squid’s feelings. When you are asking the Master about boarding his ship try to remember the question is only small talk, and you are going to send Marines or Seals over to scope things out regardless. Every weapon that gets through will someday be used against us!
Sunday, June 12, 2011
Dry Bits Week 23
Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @9.94 +10.44% >>> OCNF @0.34 -12.82%, PRGN @2.03 -14.70%, TBSI @0.91 -23.52%. The equities had 15 Losers and the 1 Gainer telling us how bad the week was. The laggards really taking hits this week as share prices fell dramatically. I did not really see any reason for Globus to have gone up, yet it rose over 10% on a disastrous week. The bottom feeders trading TBSI had the rug pulled out from under them dropping huge. Paragon might be done being “corrected” as it has lost 32% of its value in the last 30 days. That is if you think PRGN was fairly price 1 month ago.
The Baltics: BDI 1418 -4.76%, BCI 1735 -10.52%, BPI 1927 +7.59%, BSI 1348 -6.06%, BHSI 749 -2.09%. The big ladies cannot hold the recent gains and drop back under ops cost. The panasisters had the only good week as all the other indices fell, even though the supras had some exceptionally nice fixtures for the mix.
The Fixtures: Ore =18, Coal =6, T/C =79, Period =15, Sugar =1, Bauxite =1, total =120. The ore chores exactly matched last week, meanwhile coal runs improved to almost healthy volume. All in all the demand simply is not at a level we call normal. This time of year we normally run around 150 fixtures per week, so although this week’s total of 120 is low, it is way better than last weeks 95.
Top Period Rate vs. spot.
Capes: Scope trading 12 MOS $11,000 vs. $9,758.
Pmax: Atlantic Horizon 4 – 6 MOS $15,500 vs. $15,266.
Smax: Prabhu Lal 3 – 5 MOS $13,000 vs. $14170.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =24, Post P =4, Kmax =5, Pmax =49, Smax =22, Hmax =8, Hsize =4, Bulker =3, Total =120. The best news here is simply VLOC =0.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated last week’s fixture reports. Navios Stellar, Poseidon, Navios Celestial, M/V Bonita. I observed a whole bunch of soy and corn fields under water as I traveled around this weekend. It was sad to think all the damage I was seeing is not even what has been mentioned in the news. Corn is going to get real tight.
I read that 4 mature capes were traded to the breakers just this last week. SWEET!! There are years that have gone by with less Capesize scrapping.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @9.94 +10.44% >>> OCNF @0.34 -12.82%, PRGN @2.03 -14.70%, TBSI @0.91 -23.52%. The equities had 15 Losers and the 1 Gainer telling us how bad the week was. The laggards really taking hits this week as share prices fell dramatically. I did not really see any reason for Globus to have gone up, yet it rose over 10% on a disastrous week. The bottom feeders trading TBSI had the rug pulled out from under them dropping huge. Paragon might be done being “corrected” as it has lost 32% of its value in the last 30 days. That is if you think PRGN was fairly price 1 month ago.
The Baltics: BDI 1418 -4.76%, BCI 1735 -10.52%, BPI 1927 +7.59%, BSI 1348 -6.06%, BHSI 749 -2.09%. The big ladies cannot hold the recent gains and drop back under ops cost. The panasisters had the only good week as all the other indices fell, even though the supras had some exceptionally nice fixtures for the mix.
The Fixtures: Ore =18, Coal =6, T/C =79, Period =15, Sugar =1, Bauxite =1, total =120. The ore chores exactly matched last week, meanwhile coal runs improved to almost healthy volume. All in all the demand simply is not at a level we call normal. This time of year we normally run around 150 fixtures per week, so although this week’s total of 120 is low, it is way better than last weeks 95.
Top Period Rate vs. spot.
Capes: Scope trading 12 MOS $11,000 vs. $9,758.
Pmax: Atlantic Horizon 4 – 6 MOS $15,500 vs. $15,266.
Smax: Prabhu Lal 3 – 5 MOS $13,000 vs. $14170.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =24, Post P =4, Kmax =5, Pmax =49, Smax =22, Hmax =8, Hsize =4, Bulker =3, Total =120. The best news here is simply VLOC =0.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated last week’s fixture reports. Navios Stellar, Poseidon, Navios Celestial, M/V Bonita. I observed a whole bunch of soy and corn fields under water as I traveled around this weekend. It was sad to think all the damage I was seeing is not even what has been mentioned in the news. Corn is going to get real tight.
I read that 4 mature capes were traded to the breakers just this last week. SWEET!! There are years that have gone by with less Capesize scrapping.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Dry Bits Week 19
Top + Bottom 5 Day: SHIP @0.497 +5.74%, SB @8.28 +4.81%, DSX @11.31 +1.07%, >>>GNK @7.83 -6.00%, BALT @6.74 -8.04%, TBSI @1.32 -22.35%. Peter Pans (Peter C. Georgiopoulos) magic powder bag must be empty. We still are amazed at the strategy of him creating a dropdown (BALT) then deploying those assets in the spot market knowing full well rates would come under heavy pressure from the order book and delivery dates. He could have followed Angel’s lead (NM & NMM) and protected/improved the GNK balance sheet, but instead threw caution to the wind and rolled the dice. I don’t think so… Peter knew exactly what he was doing, and why. How he can look his common share investors in the eye remains a mystery to some industry observers. We are hopeful TMT Guest Editor Ohms Law will find the time to look at one of his favorite’s Safe Bulkers and share his projections and price targets with our readers some time in the near future. We must look into putting Ohms on the TonMileTrader payroll.
The Baltics: BDI @1306 -2.53%, BCI @1494 -4.59%, BPI @1720 -2.76%, BSI @1392 +0.43%, BHSI @788 -0.50%. The Cape Owners have a bad week at the fixture table as charterers are able to depress rates even as they bring healthy demand. The cape activity was by far the highest so far this year, yet the rates slide ~5%. That had to hurt. The Handies are giving back some hard pressed gains and now seem aligned to a sub 800 summer. What a Bummer!
The Fixtures: Ore =28, Coal =7, Baux =1, Urea =2, Corn =1, Maize =1, T/C =106, Period =15, Total =161. The best week of fixtures we have seen in a long time as the Ore Chores came in strong, coupled with healthy t/c volume. Our favorite coal burner TaiPower threw us a curveball when they did not show for a couple weeks in a row. The coal runs improved over last 4 week avg. but did not meet our expectations. I never did find out what they were doing fixing a cape to Taiwan when I did not think they could handle a post pana due to port limitations. Boomer James now indicates he will report back next week on the island’s port infrastructure.
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Guo May Trading 11-13 MOS $11,500 spot = $ 6,002.
Pmax: Fortune E Trading 3-5 MOS $22,000 spot = $13,797.
Smax: Ocean Leader Trading 4-6 MOS $20,250 spot = $14,552.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =37, Post P =4, Kmax =14, Pmax =54, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, Total =161.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Navios Orion, Star Zeta, Genco Vigor, Bonita, Star Reliance. We must mention a surprise fixture from Vale chartering the Catalina on an ore chore running San Nicolas > Rotterdam paying USD$36. We have not seen the mining giant fix much publically of late. I believe they are still puttin on the tonmiles, but do not report the fixtures to the Baltic. I always want to compare Vales entry into the shipping business with the fate of US Steel when they also attempted to be a shipping company. The steel producer’s sizable fleet became the original Navios after they lost the desire to be a shipper and concentrate on just making steel. Btw neither I nor TMT friend Bimco shipping analyst Peter Sand has found very much concrete information on the USS fleet performance. Any scoop ?
Good Fortunes
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1306 -2.53%, BCI @1494 -4.59%, BPI @1720 -2.76%, BSI @1392 +0.43%, BHSI @788 -0.50%. The Cape Owners have a bad week at the fixture table as charterers are able to depress rates even as they bring healthy demand. The cape activity was by far the highest so far this year, yet the rates slide ~5%. That had to hurt. The Handies are giving back some hard pressed gains and now seem aligned to a sub 800 summer. What a Bummer!
The Fixtures: Ore =28, Coal =7, Baux =1, Urea =2, Corn =1, Maize =1, T/C =106, Period =15, Total =161. The best week of fixtures we have seen in a long time as the Ore Chores came in strong, coupled with healthy t/c volume. Our favorite coal burner TaiPower threw us a curveball when they did not show for a couple weeks in a row. The coal runs improved over last 4 week avg. but did not meet our expectations. I never did find out what they were doing fixing a cape to Taiwan when I did not think they could handle a post pana due to port limitations. Boomer James now indicates he will report back next week on the island’s port infrastructure.
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Guo May Trading 11-13 MOS $11,500 spot = $ 6,002.
Pmax: Fortune E Trading 3-5 MOS $22,000 spot = $13,797.
Smax: Ocean Leader Trading 4-6 MOS $20,250 spot = $14,552.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =37, Post P =4, Kmax =14, Pmax =54, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, Total =161.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Navios Orion, Star Zeta, Genco Vigor, Bonita, Star Reliance. We must mention a surprise fixture from Vale chartering the Catalina on an ore chore running San Nicolas > Rotterdam paying USD$36. We have not seen the mining giant fix much publically of late. I believe they are still puttin on the tonmiles, but do not report the fixtures to the Baltic. I always want to compare Vales entry into the shipping business with the fate of US Steel when they also attempted to be a shipping company. The steel producer’s sizable fleet became the original Navios after they lost the desire to be a shipper and concentrate on just making steel. Btw neither I nor TMT friend Bimco shipping analyst Peter Sand has found very much concrete information on the USS fleet performance. Any scoop ?
Good Fortunes
Ski
Friday, May 6, 2011
Dry Bits Week 18
Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @3.05 +3.04%, NM @5.43 +2.64%, FREE @2.63 +1.54%, >>> BALT @7.33 -8.48%, SHIP @0.47 -12.96%, OCNF @0.48 -14.28%. The Equities had 6 gainers and 10 losers for the again short report week. We only have 3 days of fixtures for analysis compared to a normal 5 day report.
The Baltics: BDI @1340 +5.59%, BCI @1566 +0.12%, BPI @1769 +22.0 %, BSI @1386 -0.28%, BHSI @792 -0.62%. The Panasisters again benefitting from ECSA > Cont. and should be supported thru next week as the coal burners step up to the fixture table. We had thought the Handies would have seen more work down South supporting another shot at the 800 mark. Not!
The Fixtures: Ore =10, Coal =2, Bauxite =2, Sugar =1, T/C =89, Period =17, Total =121. The ore chores fall a long way from last weeks 25. I think we will see a bounce next week in coal runs as they have been sub par 2 weeks running. The flooding in the Midwest has forced the Corp to close parts of the Miss River killing the USG. Btw as pointed out earlier in Dry Bits this year’s corn planting is way behind last years. $$$ Corn could get really tight, especially if a lot of acreage resorts to soy. Boomer James reports the local fields are way too wet with more rain coming next few days. The tractors would sink to China!
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Trinity Star 11 – 13 MOS $13,500 $6,342.
Pmax: Glyfada 1 3 – 4 MOS $21,500 $13,825.
Smax: Toxotis 4 – 6 MOS $15,000 $14,334.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =56, Smax =22, Hmax =7, Hsize =3, Bulker <30 =1, Total =121.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Kronos, Emerald, Golden Trader, Golden Strength, Mineral Star, Torm Trader, Navios Titan, Golden Eclipse, Genco Vigour, Corona, Trinity Star, Star Breeze. The crew at Eagle has chartered the Clymene for USD13,000 daily running Ghent > UKC. Good luck to those at home trying to keep track of the shipper’s revenue streams. During the week I read a discussion between a trader and a long, wherein the long concluded the trader’s strategy of hitting the equities for small gains was cheap or amateurish compared to the logical buy and hold strategy. In my opinion it is more fun playing the momentum game, and more importantly, in my portfolio the money tied up holding some Bulker shares has been outperformed by the money made from trading in and out of various shippers. That does not give me the attitude that my strategy is superior! Just plain more fun. At Dry Bits we maintain the bulker equities are currently better suited for attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @3.05 +3.04%, NM @5.43 +2.64%, FREE @2.63 +1.54%, >>> BALT @7.33 -8.48%, SHIP @0.47 -12.96%, OCNF @0.48 -14.28%. The Equities had 6 gainers and 10 losers for the again short report week. We only have 3 days of fixtures for analysis compared to a normal 5 day report.
The Baltics: BDI @1340 +5.59%, BCI @1566 +0.12%, BPI @1769 +22.0 %, BSI @1386 -0.28%, BHSI @792 -0.62%. The Panasisters again benefitting from ECSA > Cont. and should be supported thru next week as the coal burners step up to the fixture table. We had thought the Handies would have seen more work down South supporting another shot at the 800 mark. Not!
The Fixtures: Ore =10, Coal =2, Bauxite =2, Sugar =1, T/C =89, Period =17, Total =121. The ore chores fall a long way from last weeks 25. I think we will see a bounce next week in coal runs as they have been sub par 2 weeks running. The flooding in the Midwest has forced the Corp to close parts of the Miss River killing the USG. Btw as pointed out earlier in Dry Bits this year’s corn planting is way behind last years. $$$ Corn could get really tight, especially if a lot of acreage resorts to soy. Boomer James reports the local fields are way too wet with more rain coming next few days. The tractors would sink to China!
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Trinity Star 11 – 13 MOS $13,500 $6,342.
Pmax: Glyfada 1 3 – 4 MOS $21,500 $13,825.
Smax: Toxotis 4 – 6 MOS $15,000 $14,334.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =56, Smax =22, Hmax =7, Hsize =3, Bulker <30 =1, Total =121.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Kronos, Emerald, Golden Trader, Golden Strength, Mineral Star, Torm Trader, Navios Titan, Golden Eclipse, Genco Vigour, Corona, Trinity Star, Star Breeze. The crew at Eagle has chartered the Clymene for USD13,000 daily running Ghent > UKC. Good luck to those at home trying to keep track of the shipper’s revenue streams. During the week I read a discussion between a trader and a long, wherein the long concluded the trader’s strategy of hitting the equities for small gains was cheap or amateurish compared to the logical buy and hold strategy. In my opinion it is more fun playing the momentum game, and more importantly, in my portfolio the money tied up holding some Bulker shares has been outperformed by the money made from trading in and out of various shippers. That does not give me the attitude that my strategy is superior! Just plain more fun. At Dry Bits we maintain the bulker equities are currently better suited for attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Week 17
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @2.96 +4.96%, NMM @21.30 +3.64%, NM @5.29 +1.73% >>>
GLBS @8.93 -0.77%, SB @8.15 -1.80%, TBSI @1.72 -2.82%. Navios Partners has been a T&B5 leader four consecutive weeks running. Investors are confident Angel will harvest another tonnage infusion, courtesy of the holding company. I think Partners remains on a suspension of sorts from the omnibus agreement for a prior infraction. It sounded silly when NM announced it, and it sounds silly repeating it today. Anyway… Surf is Up!
The Baltics: BDI @1269 +1.19%, BCI @1564 +1.55%, BPI @1450 +5.30%, BSI @1390 -0.78%, BHSI @797 -0.62%. The Panasisters catch a few waves running ECSA > China. The Handies can’t hold 800 and see the first negative week in over 2 months. With the yards spitting out ships daily (even after slippage) I was surprised by this positive week. Every week it will become mathematically harder to keep even keel at the rate scale.
The Fixtures: Ore =25, Coal =2, Bauxite =1, HSS =1, T/C =71, Period =11, Total =111.
Top Weekly Period Rates and spot.
Capes: KM Kobe 6 – 8 MOS $12,500 spot $6,698
Pmax: Alpha Happiness 4 – 6 MOS $14,750 spot $11,620
Smax: Darya Mahesh 60 – 120 Days $22,750 spot $14,530
The ore chores came in strong considering the shortened week. The coal got scarce with major burners holding back. I am not sure how often this happens but I observed zero fixtures departing USG during the week? Flooding on the Miss River Im thinking plays a big part.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =31, Post P =2, Kmax =7, Pmax =47, Smax =19, Hmax =2, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =1, Total =111.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the weeks fixture reports. Genco Aquitaine, Navios Sagitarious, Genco Titus, Genco Maximus. The folks who closely follow NMM will be interested in the negative counterparty performance indicated by the Sagitarious being relet for $12,500 daily while the Partners are being paid $26,195 net of commissions daily. Insured or not, counterparty performance remains critical. Folks observing Eagle will wonder about the company chartering a vessel named Topaz running USG > Imingham at $12,000 plus 400K bonus bucks. Hard to believe with all their tonnage none could catch the gulf loading date?
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Dry Bits Week 16
Top & Bottom 5 Day: OCNF @0.58 +3.57%, NMM @20.99 +2.64%, >>> BALT @8.04 -4.05%, PRGN @2.80 -4.10%, GNK @8.17 -15.59%. The leader board shows Navios Partners for the third consecutive week earning the t&b alert status. It has been our experience that the range bound bulker equities will fall (almost always) after being a leader for 3 straight. Peter Pan sure had a bad week with his bulkers. The bottom feeders are watching Genco with sincerity. “Wait for the magic dust to settle” sounds off Boomer James, in anticipation of more shenanigans. Dry Equities 14 losers vs. 2 gainers. Ouch!!
The Baltics: BDI @1254 -3.24%, BCI @1540 -1.53%, BPI @1377 -9.04%, BSI @1401 -0.91%, BHSI @802 +0.75%. It took Ten consecutive weeks but the Baltic Handysize Index has crossed the 800 mark. This week (like several others lately) showed Red for all other indices with the BPI losing the most.
The Fixtures: Ore =4, Coal =5, Corn =1, Grain =1, T/C =25, Period =7, total =43.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes : Aqua Princess 4 – 6 MOS $12,500 vs. $6,530.
Pmax: Go Public 3 – 5 MOS $16,000 vs. $11,335.
Smax: Pisti 5 – 7 MOS $15,500 vs. $14,683.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =8, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =3, Pmax =17, Smax =7, Hmax =1, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =2, total =43.
Ski Notes: The Holiday shortened week has yielded limited data compared to our normal analysis. I noticed our fav coal burner taipower has chartered a Cape TBN @125,000 Newcastle > Taiwan USD 12.4. The last I checked there was no bulk port that could handle a big girl on the island. Cargill reportedly fixed a 60K Grain run loading Miss. River to Egypt.
Happy Easter
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1254 -3.24%, BCI @1540 -1.53%, BPI @1377 -9.04%, BSI @1401 -0.91%, BHSI @802 +0.75%. It took Ten consecutive weeks but the Baltic Handysize Index has crossed the 800 mark. This week (like several others lately) showed Red for all other indices with the BPI losing the most.
The Fixtures: Ore =4, Coal =5, Corn =1, Grain =1, T/C =25, Period =7, total =43.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes : Aqua Princess 4 – 6 MOS $12,500 vs. $6,530.
Pmax: Go Public 3 – 5 MOS $16,000 vs. $11,335.
Smax: Pisti 5 – 7 MOS $15,500 vs. $14,683.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =8, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =3, Pmax =17, Smax =7, Hmax =1, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =2, total =43.
Ski Notes: The Holiday shortened week has yielded limited data compared to our normal analysis. I noticed our fav coal burner taipower has chartered a Cape TBN @125,000 Newcastle > Taiwan USD 12.4. The last I checked there was no bulk port that could handle a big girl on the island. Cargill reportedly fixed a 60K Grain run loading Miss. River to Egypt.
Happy Easter
Ski
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