PermaBear ?

Permabear?
The obvious implication (being a permanent bear) is in itself not the worst thing Ski has been called. As an observer/commentator of the marine transportation industry I read a lot of news relating to shipping from perspectives gathered from around the globe. Did I mention reading a lot of news? Anyhow, I can see how easily Matt or any other reader could describe me as bearish on bulkers. A coy smile came to me as I recall telling all of you how I call the folks at WeberSeas the “bad news bears” because they always are smacking us with some bad news. Now I suppose the shoe is on the other foot, and it is my writing that spoils the mood. Please send me all the good news to be found and I would gladly report on it.

Long BALT why so glum?
This will be hard to answer without sounding …you know, bearish. This shipping investor has just purchased shares of BALT@~$11.00 he intends to hold for 10+ years and is projecting estimates of Peter G paying dividends based around a nickel per share for every 100 points above 2000 on the BDI. “do you believe my "nickel a share" back-of- the-envelope guess? And what are you willing to pay for that kind of
leverage you might get over a BDI of 2000? Any better, more educated
guesses? Is this a good way to think about this?”.

The 10+ year timeframe is a very long time to assume that the shipping markets will even resemble what they do today. Ten years ago China had just a few shipyards and today nobody can count them all. Ten years ago the rest of the world made more steel than China alone, btw not true today. This (shipping) is not a very predictable sector as with the stroke of an ink pen governments can change trade patterns that have enormous impact on trade. Seasoned shippers will remember when Carter signed the Soviet Grain Embargo and the unexpected results. The Russians turned to South America and had great success converting the continent into major agricultural exporters that were to feed the Russian Motherland. After a few years major exporters in SA joined hands and became Mercosur and once again their “union” was observed having drastic effects on the world trade patterns. The unexpected closures of the Suez have changed a great many investors fortunes. None of these events were calculated or projected to occur when they did, yet they all had profound effects on shipping demand.

A quick glance at the BDI 10 Halloweens ago shows 1759. To hope for 10 more years of 2000 point average levels may not be a bad base number to speculate your position because regardless of my reputation I am Bullish that shipping will survive. That is not to say I think publically held shippers will always be afloat. With the stroke of a pen all the public shippers can return to being private entities.

I wish you Good Fortunes with your position and look forward to congratulating you Ten years from now. I remain convinced that present investments in common stock of all shipping equities are better suited to attentive momentum investors when compared to traditional Longs. The fact is I continue to hold shares Long in several shippers. These were purchased when I had a different understanding of the bulkers and what moved the share price. The money I used holding these shares has not performed as well as the money I use when following the market swings. How could I recommend a true Long to any new investors?

Permashipper
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom 5 Day: SBLK +1.79% GNK +1.72% BALT +1.71% >>>
DRYS -2.95% OCNF -3.88% FREE -9.90%. If you have heard the expression “up a creek without a paddle” it reminds me of the shareholders in TBSI. The performance has been among the sectors worst laggards of late. The staggering loss in share value over the past 6 months has totaled -51.24%. Dry Bulk analytic observer Boomer James has been monitoring this company with every intention of catching the wave when/if it forms. He is a patient predator!

The Baltics: BDI@2678 -1.79%, BCI@4262 -2.53%, BPI@2410 +8.60%,
BSI@1750 -2.28%, BHSI@897 -5.57%. The last time the Handysize indice was below the 900 level was the second week of November 2009. The Panamax fleet is possibly benefitting some by the supposed option of Cape swaps. The spot rates at present suggest a charterer can rent a single Cape for $43,563 or fix two Pannies totaling $38,828. The practicality of this swap currently is questionable, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Dry Fixtures: The fixture activity picked back up week over week with 144 fixtures being reported Thursday to Thursday. Coal =4, Ore =12, Wheat =1, HSS =3, UREA =1, Scrap =1, T/C =96, Period =26. The vessel tally is populated with Capes =29,
PostPmax =2, Kmax =11, Pmax =61, Smax =20, Hmax =5, Hsize =9, Bulkers =7. Again for any newer readers urea is a fertilizer and hss is heavy beans soy & sorgrum.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Fantastiks, Torm Island, Free Maverick, Navios Titan,
Genco Warrior, Genco Constantine, Genco London. A noteworthy fix was reported for the F Elephant a 250,000 dwt (Very Big Lady) was chartered by Vale illustrating the miners focus on economies of scale. The havoc their intended fleet of fat boats may inflict on the trade could readily backfire on them. Should Ski remind Vale what happened to US Steel when the steelmaker tried to play shipper? Their private fleet failed and eventually became Navios. Guess who is sitting pretty in South America sharpening her claws? Fortunately the Paparazzi have yet to capture Angel strolling along a beach in Rio sporting a Ton Mile Trader Thong! In the meantime tmt dry bulk data miner Dodger scans YouTube every day with hopes of a sighting. Thinks she is a “hooters girl” if he has ever seen one.
Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Oct.17th 2010

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: DSX @13.98 +5.27%, NMM @18.48 +3.07%, NM @5.95 +0.68% >>> SHIP @1.21 -2.42%, GNK @16.45 -2.49%, TBSI @4.95 -4.07%.

The Baltic Numbers: BDI@2762 +2.44%, BCI@4345 +6.59%, BPI@2254 -6.20%,
BSI@1858 -1.90%, BHSI@994 -3.77%.

Dry Fixtures Thursday – Thursday: Corn =1, HSS =2, Ore =22, Coal =3,
T/C =87, Period =14, Total = 128.

Vessel Tally: Capes =33, PostPmax =1, Kmax =2, Pmax =41, Smax =41, Hmax =6, Hsize =4, Total 128.

Familiar Vessels
Genco Success, Genco Cavalier, Genco Commodus, Navios Stellar, Torm Island, Genco Tiberius, Navios Anteres, Navios Vector.

The amount of ore fixtures for the last 4 weeks average out at 14 fixtures per week. This week saw 22 Ore Chores fixing for a 57% improvement in volume. The Big Ladies (Capes) closed with 33 of the 128 fixtures, losing some volume compared to last week’s cape fixture count of 38. The period activity was diminished with only 14 vessels taking that type of “secure” employment.

A Ski note; The folks who follow dry bulk shipping will excuse me for not harping too much about the blasted order book! The documentation and analysis of the fleet size has been a subject we all have privately digested with assistance from the gifted Authors at Cotzias, WeberSeas, TradeWinds, and the like. It is not a surprise that many private investors (who once loved shipping) have long since departed from investments in the sector. A quote from Martin Stopford that shipping may be in for up to 30 years of bad times had the most profound impression on this observer. I hold that investments in dry bulk shipping equities are currently more suited to attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more. Now more than ever The Song Remains the Same as Led Zepplin once told us.
Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly Oct 2nd 2010

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  DRYS @4.78 +15.88%, SHIP @1.11 +10.67%, NM @5.88 +6.72% >>> DSX @12.68 -0.16%, BALT @11.17 -1.85%, TBSI @5.30 -2.39%. Uncle George found some work for a yet to be delivered Dryships drillship, plus got HSH Nordbank to amend covenants enough to be in “full compliance as amended” with the original facility.  The GE faithful were never in doubt about either annoyance!  Meantime Dale Ploughman from Seanergy  fixed 3 handysize ladies on some period employment.  A Skipoint is awarded here for Dale’s effort, considering how he is rebuilding the corporate structure of Seanergy to mirror Angel’s model of Navios Maritime Holdings.   btw SHIP now controls ~1.3M dwt average age 12.8.  Something is Rotten in Denmark!  At the other end of the 5 day review we have TBSI telling the world they are not going to pay anything but interest on their loans for the next 45 days.  The Skipper (JR) aka “Junior” went on to say during this time he is “confident” the banks will let him rewrite the deals.  

Dude… What is different now?

The Baltic: 

BDI     @2452 +0.3%

BCI     @3419 +9.54%

BPI     @2412 -11.29%        

BSI      @1843 -1.91%

BHSI   @1038 -2.89%

For every point gained in the Cape segment, the Panasister’s collectively lost and some.

Dry Fixtures:  Thursday to Thursday!  PLS don’t ask.

HSS =3, Ore =16, Coal =3, T/C =88, Period =13, Total =126

Vessel tally as follows.

Capes =21, PPmax =2, Kmax =5, Pmax =44, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =9.  The volume of period activity has been low for 3 weeks running now.  We expected coal to taper off some but down by 62% volume compared to last week? Bummer

Familiar Vessel’s:

There are a lot of them in the fixture reports this week.  Torm Saltholm, Genco London, Navios Star, Navios Hyperion, Star Manx, Navios Achilles, Genco Wisdom, Star Sigma, Navios Hios, Navios Kypros, Genco Leader. 

Good Fortunes

Ski