Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom: TBSI @3.15 +10.52%, FREE @3.93 +7.37%, SB @8.66 +4.58% >>> EGLE @4.89 -2.58%, SHIP @.932 -8.62%, GLBS @9.78 -18.5%. The top dog this week TBSI was a no brainer after setting a Dry Bits record free fall when they announced they decided to not pay any bills for a while. Boomer James has a disturbing (and annoying) smile pasted to his “pie hole” suggesting he is making some money. Our weekly Laggard Globus Maritime Limited (GLBS) took some serious lumps. Not sure what’s down with that!

The Baltics: BDI @1795 -10.2%, BCI @2440 -10.39%, BPI @1873 -8.05%, BSI @ 1539 -4.58%, BHSI @ 835 -0.47%. This year’s low BDI of 1700 may be tested after Christmas. Refer to Boomers late night BDI low summary post. Below 1700 the BDI archive will record another yearly low BDI occurring in December.

The Fixtures: Ore =16, Coal =3, HSS =1, Wheat =1, Scrap =1, T/C =75, Period =12 total =109. The ore matched last weeks volume and although some Scrap, HSS, and South American Wheat fixtures came to life, they were not enough to offset the drop from last weeks more impressive fixture count of 135. A 19% drop in weekly fixture volume helps set up the descending Baltic we have witnessed.
The Vessels: Capes =24, PPmax =1, Kmax =5, Pmax = 47, Smax =23, Hmax =4, Hsize =3, Bulkers <30K =2, total =109. ….really one of these Capes is a VLOC.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Cielo, Navios Hope, Nirefs, Star Delta, Torm Island, Star Epsilon, Dione, Navios Bonheur, Torm Anholt.

Ski Notes: We spotted a fixture loading 250,000 dwt iron ore on a vessel tbn traveling Saldanha Bay >>Qingdao chartered by KUMBA. This was counted in our report as an “ore chore” capesize fixture because Dry Bits has not yet begun considering the VLOC class. We will discuss that implication in the future. Btw this load port is in South Africa and is described as the safest, deepest and hobbitually (as in hobbit like) coolest port in all Africa. No Surf ???
Also our friends at Capital Link Shipping erroneously indicated a 27.20% drop in the BDI so Ski used the reported BDI of 1795@DryShips website.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Idus Martii

Ahoy There!
The relevance of this late night research is a matter of opinion. You might have already picked up on this, but Boomer James (being a slow steamer) has looked over the BDI tonight!!

The BDI reached the following lows during the past 10 Years.
2000 Feb 7th 1276
2001 Dec 17th 868
2002 Feb 1st 908
2003 Feb 3rd 1530
2004 Jun 22nd 2622
2005 Aug 3rd 1747
2006 Jan 23rd 2084
2007 Feb 1st 4219
2008 Dec 5th 663
2009 Jan 2nd 773
2010 Jul 15th 1700** yet to be declared official

The month of February stands out as the Laggard leader, followed closely by December and January. If you are considering a LONG dry bulk investment (or adding to an existing LONG position) you could “lay up” waiting for the Ides of March. It does not look like this is the right time of year to buy a shipper.

Readers are reminded that Ski holds the opinion that shipping stocks (at the present time) are suggested as trades, best suited for “attentive momentum investors” when compared to the best interests of traditional LONG investors of 1 year or more. Water Transportation Surfing would best describe his suggested investment mode of operation.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom 5 Day: SB @8.28 +1.71%, Safe Bulkers the lone gainer >>>
GNK @14.24 -6.06%, NM @5.05 -6.99%, TBSI @2.86 -9.77%. The entire dry world decayed an average ~3.5% over the last 5 days. The tweendeck operator TBSI retains its 4 week role as anchor dropping another quick 10%. DB analyst Boomer James is eyeballing this everyday...uttering something about Santa’ Reindeer riding the tween.

The Baltics 5 Day: BDI @1999 -4.58%, BCI @2723 +1.07%, BPI @2037 -13.57%,
BSI @1613 -3.41%, BHSI @839 +1.08%. Below 2000 we ask ourselves about things like libor rates and the like. The Panasister’s suffer after midmonth coal requirements are easily covered.

Dry Fixtures & Vessel Employment: Ore =16, Coal =1, T/C =99, Period =19
Total =135. The amount of fixtures this week is better than last, yet well below the desired mark of 150. The weeks 135 fixtures utilized the following vessel’s…
Capes =20, PPmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =77, Smax =32, Hmax =7, Hsize =4,
Bulkers <30K =9.

Familiar Vessel’s: Torm Skagen, Genco Champion, Torm Anholt.

Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 49 (03/12/2010 - 10/12/2010)

This was another non-decisive week with the main motive being the total lack of any clear direction and trend. We feel that going this way on our job as analysts becomes really dull and sometimes we feel practically “useless” as not being able to read  and deduct any signals from the super volatile market fluctuations  makes us just wonder how ill or  not is the fate of the Dry Bulk markets? This week’s interesting moves were those of the Capes that made a small shortlived uprise towards the end of last week that momentarily gave us some happy thoughts that were quickly reversed as the index made 4 consecutive falls closing the week with a bitter after-taste. The Panamax size segment has already added more fuel to the existing volatility and has altered the uncertain moving pattern to ups and downs that start now to fluctuate every 2-3 days!!!! It is  rather odd that only the smaller sizes the Supramaxes and the Handysize ships are on a constant upward sloped pattern, and the Supras after 29 negative Baltic Exchange sessions are already counting 14 consecutive positive sessions and during the past 3 weeks have regained more than 23% of their strength. On a similar manner the smaller Handies

have 13 positive sessions and this seems to be on a steady motive that may last during the week to come.

Read the full Dry Bulk Market Highlights - Week 49 (03/12/2010 - 10/12/2010)

Best Regards

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker

Dry Bits Weekly

The Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS @6.33 +7.65%, NMM @19.58 +3.27%, SHIP @1.06 +2.91% >>>
BALT @11.03 -5.24%, SBLK @2.85 -5.62%, TBSI @3.17 -8.11%. A few years back the entire sector was/seemed driven by DRYS. When DRYS went up the sector followed, and vice versa. This week only three other shippers followed DRYS lead while the remaining 2/3rds lost ground. The Top & Bottom repeat alarm has identified TBSI as a 3 week + loser, and that qualifies a long consideration, and yes DRYS has made the watch list as a short consideration closing on the leader board two weeks in a row. Pairs-Players!! The tweendecker operator is down 58% yoy.

The Baltics: BDI @2095 -3.36%, BCI @2694 -9.68%, BPI @2357 -1.04%,
BSI @1670 +4.83%, BHSI @830 +1.71%. At this rate within 3 weeks the Capesize vessels will be available at less than the cost of a Panamax. Kadywhompus!

The Fixtures (Thurs to Thurs): Iron Ore =12, Coal =8, HSS =2, T/C =72, Period =12, total =106. The 8 Coal fixtures soared past last weeks results of 1, while the “Ore Chores” fell off last weeks 23 fixes reporting ~half that amount (12) this week. There were no Capesize vessels taken on Period this week as the Panasisters took 10 of the 12 Period charters that got inked. The big girls poached several of normal Pmax coal fixtures as the cape/pmax ratio slips closer to inverted. Why rent a much smaller Pmax when for a few dollars more you can get a big fat lady?

The Vessels: Capes =17, PPmax =3, Kmax =5, Pmax =48, Smax =19, Hmax =4, Hsize =4, Bulkers =6, total =106.

Ski Notes: We saw a couple noteworthy fixes over the week. The first eye opener would be Cargill the giant food producer has fixed a TBN Capesize vessel to haul 160Kdwt of iron ore from Tubarao/Qingdao at the rate of $22. My guess here is they will be using one of their own chartered in vessels that was not presently employed hauling foodstuffs.

The next fix that catches our eye has Navios chartering the Panamax Daniela Schulte from HAMPTON ROADS to SAKAIDE hauling 70,000 dwt of Coal for a staggering USD44/ton. Angel is probably being forced to cover a COA commitment that somehow fell through the cracks. Keep in mind that a COA does not require a dedicated vessel, and with the idea being that Navios would always have a planned vessel available to cover the commitment, it’s a fair bet to say somebody got their butts chewed. Forty Four Dollars a Ton!

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Weekly "prescoop"

Curious Navios Charter.... DRYS makes the DB short consideration
criteria... Capes poaching the Pmax picnic...Cargill the Agriculture
Giant is moving Iron Ore...Panasisters showing some sort of staying
power...

"Upon us all, a little rain must fall" (Led Zepplin) as the story
goes. Dad is having a rough go now and therefore our report is
running late. I just won't laptop at his hospital bedside. Dad did
enjoy a websearch when we typed in LayTime.


Good Fortunes

Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 48 (26/11/2010 - 03/12/2010)

This was another week of mixed feelings that failed to give us any real sense of direction. However we feel that the Large ships, namely the Capes and VLOC’s are in for some hard times ahead. Not necessarily “tomorrow”, but surely in the year to come. We are one month away from clearing out 2010 and this year was overall a very good one, all “other things considering”…!!! We feel that China has lead the way forward, has given us some positive demand for cargoes, has generated momentum and has been the steam engine that gave power to the dry bulk markets. Had it not been for China’s constant and insatiable appetite for raw materials, and general imports together with providing the world with a massive wealth of exports, we would be facing a collapsed dry cargo freight market. Simply as that! The effects of the inflow and vast additions of many new ships in 2010 has been moderated by China and partly by the other developing and emerging countries.

Read the full Dry Bulk Market Highlights - Week 48 (26/11/2010 - 03/12/2010)

Best Regards

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker

Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS @5.88 +13.07%, SBLK @3.02 +5.96%, EXM @5.85 +4.46% >>> FREE @3.92 -1.75%, BALT @11.64 -4.59%, TBSI @3.47 -11.92%.
The strategic maneuvering of Mr. Economou regarding his publicly traded entity known as Dryships, (DRYS) has once again resulted in controversy over the fairness (or not) that the CEO affords existing common shareholders. Uncle George certainly knows what he is doing with the direction of the company, and you can bet this will be to his personal benefit. Questioning whether or not this will be in the best interest of the individual shareholders is an important task best left to those private holders as they analyze the recent events. On the laggards roster TBSI smells like some old stink bait that has the bottom feeders surely preparing for a feast. Boomer James thinks the Tweendeckers are insulated from the “China Syndrome” and should they ever resolve the banking issues…..

The Baltics: BDI @2168 -0.09%, BCI @2983 -7.32%, BPI @2382 +2.23%,
BSI @1593 +7.20%, BHSI @816 +3.80%. Capesize losses hammered the broader BDI offsetting the gains made in smaller vessel classes. The Supramaxes have done well for two consecutive weeks now. Boomer James thinks that Eagle’s (EGLE) fleet of S&H Maxes are insulated from the “China Syndrome” and should they ever resolve the banking issues ….

Dry Bulk Fixtures Thursday to Thursday: Ore =23, Coal =1, Corn =1, T/C =105,
Period =13, for a total of 143 fixtures. This week the number of “ore chores” increased (23vs.17) when compared to last week, yet owners were still obliged to take what the charterers offered. Attaining “last done” would be considered over the top. The commercial distinctions populating reports for the week are as follows. Capes =27, PPmax =1, Kmax =9, Pmax =57, Smax =35, Hmax =5, Smax =3, Bulkers <30K =6.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Melodia, Torm Island, Genco Provence, Navios Primavera, Genco Constantine, Torm Trader, Nirefs, Navios Kypros.

Ski Notes: Our perpetually contributing dry bulk analyst Boomer James is not a member of the editorial group here at DB, and his comments do not necessarily jive with the remainder of our staff. The truth is Ski has suspected Boomer (similar to GE ) maintains an agenda that may prove wholly self serving, yet possibly beneficial to others. In a vote of measured confidence our group states that “Boomer knows Squat about shipping”. As seasoned shippers I am hopeful that you know at least squat about our beloved industry called shipping. “The squat effect is the hydrodynamic phenomenon by which a vessel moving quickly through shallow water creates an area of lowered pressure under its bottom that causes the ship to "squat" lower in the water than would otherwise be expected.” So now thanks to this roasting of our analyst, you all know squat about shipping and should not be grounding your bottoms.

Good Fortunes
Ski