Saturday, February 26, 2011

Dry Bits Week 8

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: SBLK +6.12%, NM +5.31%, NMM +0.76% >>>
FREE -3.52%, SHIP -3.57%, GLBS -12.84%. The dry bulk sector had 72% of the covered companies losing share value over the short week of trading. “Cheeze Wiz” is kinda like SBLK taking top honors in the Dry Bits T& B 5Day. You can make it (wiz) work in cooking, but don’t read the ingredients. You can believe the company has found investor support with the news that Mr. Spyros Capralos has been appointed as President and Chief Executive Officer, to succeed Mr. Akis Tsirigakis, effective as of February 7, 2011. or the half empty side…The more cynical of us i.e. DB Analyst Boomer James suspect the share value was artificially supported as a maneuver to assuage the commoners. One more top 3 week and we short this puppy! The dry bits data mining crew implies this will not impair their objective assessment of the new SBLK Skipper that might be published later next week.
The Baltics: BDI @1245 -4.30%, BCI @1315 -8.80%, BPI @1812 -9.58% >>>
BSI @1385 +9.31%, BHSI @688 +2.68%.
The Fixtures: Coal =8, Ore Chores =20, HSS =2, Petcoke =1, T/C =82, Period =17, Total =130. Good to see some heavy beans starting to move. The petrocks were a nice topping. Bad side was t/c volume fell off 22% w.o.w. yet covered somewhat by the period fixture increase. Ski remains surprised at the markets subdued period activity because he forecasted a while back that smart owners would be locking up long charters.
Top Period / Spot Rates this Week:
Capes $16,000 10 > 13 MOS Spot $4,827
Panasisters $14,533 4 > 6 MOS Spot $14,533
Supra $17,000 7 > 9 MOS Spot $14,242
Little Sisters None reported Spot $10,175
As Angel Frangou would say “there is more to a fixture than meets the eye” considering we skeptics see no reason any Capesize would fix for a year paying ~231% premium to the spot rates. Somebody is scratchin someones back I say.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =22, Post Pana =0, Kmax =5, Pmax =57, Smax =33, Hmax =8, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30K =1, Total =130.
Ski Notes: The smaller ladies that normally service the grains have already been benefitting from ECSA and USG inquiries, suggesting some support will materialize. The revolutions occurring in the oppressed lands will surely become a tonmile generator as food chains become dysfunctional. I hope the gain for our industry is simply thru vessel utilizations and does not provide alibi for any astronomical rate surges. At the end of the day we should remember we will be bringing food to people who will not be able to pay for it. We can fleece them later, once they are back on their feet.
Good Fortunes
Ski

Wednesday, February 23, 2011

Dry bit

"John Fredriksen’s Golden Ocean has issued a warning to Korea Line Corp that it pursue any unpaid charter hire. Golden Ocean has two bulk carriers on charter to Korea Line, which went into debt rehabilitation last week".  The folks at KLC will not want to mess with Big John.  Fair bet that KLC pays

Mr Soutter said he expected that a trend for increased use of containers to ship refined (white) sugar would continue.  'The elderly profile of the tweendeck fleet which for so long has been the workhorse of the bagged sugar trades, mean these vessels are disappearing from international trade,' he said. 

This story about the sugar boats does not sound good for TBSI. 
Good fortunes
Ski

Saturday, February 19, 2011

Dry Bits Week 7

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: EXM +8.45%, NM +7.05%, BALT 6.41%, >>>
SB -1.71%, FREE -1.88%, TBSI -5.02%. We alert readers that TBSI has repeated on the T&B 2 consecutive weeks. The folks who roll like Boomer James have the opinion the range bound bulkers become ripe for small takings after gaining or losing two weeks in a row. It has played out extremely well when the company has three consecutive up or down. We notice the conspicuous absence of GNK from the leader board. There was a time when ….
The Baltics: BDI @1292 +9.67%, BCI @1455 -1.35%, BPI @1997 +23.27%, BSI @1233 +8.92%, BHSI @664 +2.31%. The Panasisters rocked with rates rising 23%. We have an opinion the force majeure may provide prolonged support as the backlog created will take up to a year to fill. The impaired mines cannot accept any “fresh” orders.
The Fixtures: Ore =22, Coal =8, Grain =1, T/C =106, Period =18, total =155. The ore chores strengthened a bit while our bud TAIPOWER shagged some coal loads. The T/C volume at 106 is the largest weekly count this year. Period activity maintained the upward slope charted weekly.
The Vessels: VLOC =1, Capes =23, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =10, Pmax =68, Smax =31, Hmax =23, Hsize =3, Bulkers = 1, Total =155. Panamaxes went thru the roof compared to last weeks 31 fixtures. We see more US coal loading Baltimore Harbor. Ski has a friend checking out some scoop relating to this port. Could be we will see a jump in the Harbor Master’s numbers.
Ski Notes: Familiar vessels populating the fixture reports include the following, Baltic Bear, Navios Titan, Star Breeze, Genco Pioneer, Poseidon. The mid sized ladies being Panamax and Supramax can expect a fair amount of support thru the remainder of the year just looking at the coal forecasts. I wouldn’t be surprised by the bigger girls cutting in for a few of the coal runs.
I recently read through some critical assessments of a fellow industry observer who has taken flak for reportedly trading shipping stocks, as if this was somehow an affront to the true investors who hold Long positions. I bet they really wouldn’t like this blog.
Good Fortunes
Ski

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Scrapping Bit

From Asiasis:
“The Clarkson Research Services expects 2011's total of capesize bulkers to be scrapped to reach 38 ships, which is a more than two times increase on last year's. A big number of capesizes, about 200 units, are expected to be delivered this year, but the pressure of oversupply can somewhat be alleviated because of the expected increase of scrapping. Meanwhile, newbuilding output has increased sharply since 2009 thanks to the large-scale orders placed during the period of newbuilding boom and especially the total deliveries of capesizes between 2008 and 2010 stood for 363 ships, which totally outweighs the total volume of demolished capesizes of 40 units during the same period.”

Deliveries 2008 – 2010 = 363 minus scrapped vessels 40 = 323 additional capes.
Expected 2011 deliveries 200 minus expected scrapped 38 = 162 additional capes
Total cape additions after scrapping 323 + 162 = 485 new fat ladies looking for work.

The question being how much will the forecasted scrapping of vessels relieve the overcapacity issue facing bulkers? The answer is that nobody knows. The crew over at Clarkson Research has stated that they expect 38 capes to hit the beach. Giving them credit for being more on the ball than many of their peers, we remind readers that they are not sure either. The number of capes that actually get demolished during 2011 will not be known until 2012. That number will not include the vessels positioned for scrapping. They will be waiting in line if the breaker beaches are full.

The breaker industry itself does not currently have the capacity to match the hundreds and hundreds of new and previously established yards that are cranking out vessels every day. The idea of building ships is considered a good thing by most nations, and we see shipyards dotting the globe. How many of those same shipbuilding nations want a leaking 30something year old rust bucket tore up on their beach by a bunch of guys with torches? You can use your fingers to count them.

The most direct relief to overcapacity will be a function of utilization. The vessels that are not able to find work will not be underway, and in short order they will amount to a layup. The duration of the vessels layup will be a indicator of the owners financial capacity as only solvent owners will be able to afford a proper layup. The less fortunate will be forced into positioning their vessels nearer the breaker nations, and eventually surrendering to the inevitable acetylene + oxygen mixture.

This will take some time to play out, but the industry will recover to its balance between supply of vessels and the demand for tonnage. The amount of ships required by the markets demand is the normal, and shipping always reverts to the norm.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Saturday, February 12, 2011

Dry Bits Week 6

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day: SHIP +8.97%, SB +4.01%, GNK +1.31%>>>

PRGN -3.41%, NMM -4.60%, TBSI -7.96%. It has been a while since we mentioned Paragon in the T&B. Bummer they show up as a laggard. The reported quarterly numbers from Safe Bulkers must have satisfied the market? The Island People (TBSI) drag’s the sectors anchor again dropping like a rock. Boomer James is already planning another foraging raid….what a spank… We share the fact that Seanergy Maritime Holdings is garnering more of our attention as we prematurely think some righteous surfing may be afforded by the share price movements.

The Baltics: The Panasisters led the way with +20%, as all the indices showed gains. I was kinda surprised the Supras didn’t get more love…they made a pretty good showing in the amount of fixtures inked, but somehow the owners couldn’t push the rates up much at all…wrong place… wrong time. Yes the fat girls ~ +14% rush had them dancing to the ZZ Top’s classic tune “The Tube Snake Boogy” very late in the night. Go girls !!! p,s. try some icy hot if it hurts still today.

BDI @1178 +12.94%

BCI @1475 +13.54%

BPI @1620 +20.17%

BSI @ 1132 +3.85%

BHSI @649 +0.93%

The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =2, Petcoke =1, T/C =58, Period =19, total =99. Remember we said that last weeks 18 coal fixtures would vanish.. just 2 this report. The period market saw the best action of this 2011 year. Period vessel class tally was Capes 2, Kmax 4, Panasisters 8, Supras 5.

Top period rates this week;

Cape $17,000 6>8 MOS

Kmaxers $18,000 4 > 6 MOS

Panasisters $17,400 12 > 15 MOS

Supras $17,000 3 > 5 MOS

The best cape period rate is ~~equal to the best Supramax rate! Size Matters they say?

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Cape =23, Post P =3, Kmax =10, Pmax =31, Smax =23, Hmax =5, Hsize =3, Bulkers <30K =1, total =99.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels were listed in the fixtures; Genco Leader, Torm Trader, Navios Hyperion, Baltic Leopard, Star Zeta. It was pointed out (courtesy of Boomer James) that Eagle Bulk Shipping has chartered (rented) three additional vessels this week fixing T/C. It should be noted that the Hyperion is one of the boats “rented” by Eagle and it is owned by Navios Partners. The folks at Eagle are paying $11,500 a day, and should make some pocket change off the fixture. On the other hand, the Hyperion is chartered out from NMM @ $37,953 net of commissions making this a very unattractive fixture for Angel’s counterparty. This awareness of counterparty performance is why we talk about familiar vessels in the Dry Bits Weekly.

Good Fortunes

Ski

Saturday, February 5, 2011

No Fat Chicks... Yet!

Ahoy There!
Why no really big coal vessels call on Taiwan… yet! The requirements for coal in Taiwan are substantial and 100% imported. We got to wondering why they don’t try to benefit from the economies of scale and fix the big ladies like Capes and even the blasted VLOC’s to import the fuel. It is all about the port limitations. The ports are simply not deep enough to permit entry, and even when the entrance channel draft is sufficient, we are further limited by narrow turning basins, and finally the alongside depth squashes any remaining hope. When you moor two vessels side by side the water is displaced lowering the existing water depth accordingly. Kmaxes are finding things tight, so I doubt we will see much if any true post pannies willing to pilot the squeeze. The fat chicks can forget it unless substantial dredging and rework is accomplished. Throw in a few trade issues with China and you might just see a bunch of dredgers working 24/7.
Kaohsiung Port handled nearly 9.47 million TEUs (twenty-foot equivalent units) in 2005, making it the sixth-largest container port in the world. This port features 118 operating berths, totaling 26.6 km in length, which can accommodate up to 153 ships (including mooring buoys) at any one time. It has five container terminals, 26 container wharves, 67 gantry cranes, two grain silos, and 293.5 hectares of container yards. The Port of Kaohsiung has 11 dry bulk berths with a total length of 2350 meters, all of which have alongside depth of 10.5 meters, and more than 3.4 thousand square meters of warehouse space. Two of these wharves (at 184 and 306 meters long) handle dangerous cargo and bulk. Eight of the 11 wharves are 200 meters long, and one is 260 meters long.
Keelung Port has 57 berths. Its two container terminals, one each on its eastern and western banks, have 15 container berths equipped with 29 gantry cranes capable of handling 13-18 rows of containers at a time. To meet the requirements of global shipping, two dredging programs were completed in January 2001, increasing the depth of the main channel to 15.5 m and enlarging the diameter of its turning basin to 650 m. Keelung Port can now accommodate vessels of 60,000 DWT. To promote operational efficiency and improve quality of service, stevedoring in Keelung Port was opened to private companies in January 1999. Port of Keelung has three berths for bulk cargoes, two of which are 165 meters long and one at 180 meters long. They have alongside depths of 10.5 and 11 meters
Taichung Port is a man-made port covering a total area of about 3,760 hectares. Located on the west coast of central Taiwan, the harbor was designed to help cope with the fast growing needs of national economic development, and to relieve some of the shipping traffic from the heavily used Keelung and Kaohsiung ports. Taichung Port's main channel is 16 m deep and its turning basin is 14 m deep at low tide. The port has 46 deep-water wharves and eight container piers. The entrance channel to the outer harbor is 350 meters long and 16 meters deep, while the inner channel is 400 meters long and 16 meters deep. The Port of Taichung contains two turning basins, both with a depth of 15 meters. The North Turning Basin is one thousand meters in diameter, and the South Turning Basin is 1100 meters diameter. The Industrial Basin is 500 meters wide with depths from 16 to 18 meters. In the South Wharf area of the Port of Taichung are the Coal Wharf and Waste Steel Wharf. The Coal Wharf has four berths of a total 1360 meters with alongside depth of 18 meters. The Waste Steel Wharf has one berth of 250 meters in length with alongside depth of 12 meters.
Hualien Port is an artificial harbor formed by eastern and western breakwaters. It faces the Pacific Ocean to the east and is flanked by the island's Central Mountains to the west. The access channel to Hualien Port is 240 meters wide and from 16.4 to 19.6 meters deep. The outer port turning basin has a diameter of 700 meters and a depth from 14 to 15 meters. The inner port navigation channel is 1120 meters long, and the inner port turning basin has a diameter of 200 meters and depth of 10.5 meters. Four wharves handle cement, and one wharf handles coal.
Taipei Port is being developed to serve as an auxiliary harbor relieving some of the heavy traffic using Keelung Port. The first of a three-phase construction has been completed, and the port is already equipped with two berths 9 m deep totaling 340 m in length, and a 70-hectare stacking yard. Ski fondly remembers visiting Taipei a few decades ago as a younger SINGLE man, and scored it a 10.
Suao Port also serves as an auxiliary harbor for Keelung Port. Located in Yilan County on Taiwan's northeast coast, the harbor covers about 2.9 sq. km and currently has 13 operating berths totaling 2,610 m in length. Measuring between 7.5 m and 15 m deep, these are capable of accommodating Post-Panamax vessels. Important rail connectivity could be noteworthy.

Anping Port serves as an auxiliary harbor to Kaohsiung Port. At present, it has a total of 2,567 m of wharves with 16 operating berths, and includes an 11.5 m deep channel that can accommodate ships of up to 20,000 DWT.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Friday, February 4, 2011

Dry Bits Week 5

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @3.89 +12.75%, EXM @5.03 +7.70%, NM @5.19 +6.57% >>>
SBLK @2.50 -3.84%, FREE @3.18 -8.88%, SHIP @0.78 -14.28%. The 30 day chart on TBSI shows a +29.67% gain. Our resident wanna be momentum trader (Boomer James) only caught ~ half of that action. Perhaps that will stifle his smugness.

The Baltics: BDI @1043 -8.26%, BCI @1299 -16.51%, BPI @1348 +0.82%,
BSI @1090 -9.84%, BHSI @ 643 -10.94%. The bad news is we will not see 18 coal fixtures next week. That surge in coal fixture activity supported the BPI, and without that support…

The Fixtures: Ore =6, Coal =18, Grain =1, T/C =68, Period =12, Total =105. Our favorite coal consumer TAIPOWER hit the refill button this week. The Pmax and Kmax fleet services the giant electricity producer located in Taiwan. There must be some port restriction or something that prevents them from fixing Capes. Boomer James will check on it.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =17, Post P =1, Kmax =12, Pmax =49,
Smax =21, Hmax =1, Hsize =3, Bulkers<30K =1, Total =105. 4 week average was 131 vessels per week, so this was not a good week for the numbers.

Familiar Vessels: Torm Island, Thetis, Genco Ardennes.

Ski Notes: Holders of EGLE may find interest in the company has chartered a 1998 Panamax named “Ribbon” hauling a load of coal from Richards Bay> Kelang for $10,000 daily, plus a $315,000 bonus. Humm!

Good Fortunes