Saturday, February 26, 2011

Dry Bits Week 8

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: SBLK +6.12%, NM +5.31%, NMM +0.76% >>>
FREE -3.52%, SHIP -3.57%, GLBS -12.84%. The dry bulk sector had 72% of the covered companies losing share value over the short week of trading. “Cheeze Wiz” is kinda like SBLK taking top honors in the Dry Bits T& B 5Day. You can make it (wiz) work in cooking, but don’t read the ingredients. You can believe the company has found investor support with the news that Mr. Spyros Capralos has been appointed as President and Chief Executive Officer, to succeed Mr. Akis Tsirigakis, effective as of February 7, 2011. or the half empty side…The more cynical of us i.e. DB Analyst Boomer James suspect the share value was artificially supported as a maneuver to assuage the commoners. One more top 3 week and we short this puppy! The dry bits data mining crew implies this will not impair their objective assessment of the new SBLK Skipper that might be published later next week.
The Baltics: BDI @1245 -4.30%, BCI @1315 -8.80%, BPI @1812 -9.58% >>>
BSI @1385 +9.31%, BHSI @688 +2.68%.
The Fixtures: Coal =8, Ore Chores =20, HSS =2, Petcoke =1, T/C =82, Period =17, Total =130. Good to see some heavy beans starting to move. The petrocks were a nice topping. Bad side was t/c volume fell off 22% w.o.w. yet covered somewhat by the period fixture increase. Ski remains surprised at the markets subdued period activity because he forecasted a while back that smart owners would be locking up long charters.
Top Period / Spot Rates this Week:
Capes $16,000 10 > 13 MOS Spot $4,827
Panasisters $14,533 4 > 6 MOS Spot $14,533
Supra $17,000 7 > 9 MOS Spot $14,242
Little Sisters None reported Spot $10,175
As Angel Frangou would say “there is more to a fixture than meets the eye” considering we skeptics see no reason any Capesize would fix for a year paying ~231% premium to the spot rates. Somebody is scratchin someones back I say.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =22, Post Pana =0, Kmax =5, Pmax =57, Smax =33, Hmax =8, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30K =1, Total =130.
Ski Notes: The smaller ladies that normally service the grains have already been benefitting from ECSA and USG inquiries, suggesting some support will materialize. The revolutions occurring in the oppressed lands will surely become a tonmile generator as food chains become dysfunctional. I hope the gain for our industry is simply thru vessel utilizations and does not provide alibi for any astronomical rate surges. At the end of the day we should remember we will be bringing food to people who will not be able to pay for it. We can fleece them later, once they are back on their feet.
Good Fortunes
Ski

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