Top & Bottom 5 Day: OCNF @0.58 +3.57%, NMM @20.99 +2.64%, >>> BALT @8.04 -4.05%, PRGN @2.80 -4.10%, GNK @8.17 -15.59%. The leader board shows Navios Partners for the third consecutive week earning the t&b alert status. It has been our experience that the range bound bulker equities will fall (almost always) after being a leader for 3 straight. Peter Pan sure had a bad week with his bulkers. The bottom feeders are watching Genco with sincerity. “Wait for the magic dust to settle” sounds off Boomer James, in anticipation of more shenanigans. Dry Equities 14 losers vs. 2 gainers. Ouch!!
The Baltics: BDI @1254 -3.24%, BCI @1540 -1.53%, BPI @1377 -9.04%, BSI @1401 -0.91%, BHSI @802 +0.75%. It took Ten consecutive weeks but the Baltic Handysize Index has crossed the 800 mark. This week (like several others lately) showed Red for all other indices with the BPI losing the most.
The Fixtures: Ore =4, Coal =5, Corn =1, Grain =1, T/C =25, Period =7, total =43.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes : Aqua Princess 4 – 6 MOS $12,500 vs. $6,530.
Pmax: Go Public 3 – 5 MOS $16,000 vs. $11,335.
Smax: Pisti 5 – 7 MOS $15,500 vs. $14,683.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =8, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =3, Pmax =17, Smax =7, Hmax =1, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =2, total =43.
Ski Notes: The Holiday shortened week has yielded limited data compared to our normal analysis. I noticed our fav coal burner taipower has chartered a Cape TBN @125,000 Newcastle > Taiwan USD 12.4. The last I checked there was no bulk port that could handle a big girl on the island. Cargill reportedly fixed a 60K Grain run loading Miss. River to Egypt.
Happy Easter
Ski
Dry Bulk Shipping Market Observations & Commentary
Saturday, April 23, 2011
Saturday, April 16, 2011
Dry Bits Week 15
Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @1.77 +7.92%, PRGN @2.92 +3.91%, NMM @20.45 +1.03% >>
GNK @9.68 -7.63%, SB @8.31 -11.50%, OCNF @ 0.56 -15.15%. Looks like the SB offering has been cooked.
The tweendeckers (TBSI) recovering almost 8% after being on a t&b laggard alert, to lead all bulkers for the week. Ski points for Boomer. Cousin Eddie at OCNF should be ashamed of himself. He is not. He can’t help it, in his blood ya know! Navios Partners has made the leader board 2 weeks in a row qualifying it for a t&b alert. Partners does seem to hold gains better than a lot of others. Maybe let them hit 3 weeks in a row, and then its hammer time.
The Baltics: BDI @1296 -5.81%, BCI @1564 -2.97%, BPI @1514 -10.73%, BSI @1414 -2.95%,
BHSI @796 +1.27%. The panasisters are just rolling over and giving it away. The handies now have 9 consecutive weeks without a rate loss. The wheat fixtures coming in will surely drive the BHSI over the 800 plateau? Yet as we say that, we acknowledge one of the wheat fixtures was actually a Supra steaming to Israel. Boomer James reports somewhat stoically that “Those with the gear, shall persevere!”
The Fixtures: Ore =17, Coal =4, T/C =99, Period =12, Wheat =2, HSS =1, total =135. The ore chores fall from last weeks 19 (and that was a slow week) making this week…slower. Best T/C activity since week 7 when we had 106. Triple digit t/c numbers are expected most times of year. The period volume dipped again, and it showed up in the diminished rates achieved. Capes are still being inked at more than double spot.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes: Blue Cho Oyo trading 11 – 13 MOS @$15,000 spot =$7,030.
Pmax: S. Nicole trading 11-13 MOS @$15,500 spot =$12,407.
Smax: Filia Joy trading 3 – 5 MOS @$18,500 Spot =$14,870.
The Vessels: VLOC =2, Capes =27, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =53, Smax =22, Hmax =12,
Hsize =3, Bulkers <30 =6, total =135. The really big ladies (VLOC) captured a couple fixtures denying the Capes a shot at the 30 mark. The bulkers <30K enjoying the early wheat harvest boost in employment. Supra vessels trying to hold in USG amidst an armada of sister ships advertising prompt. We read that 5 bulkers a day for the rest of the year are supposed to hit the water. Way to go owners, way to go!
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Bonita, Navios Altamira, Torm Rolholm, Ionian Eagle, Thor Freindship, Thor Dynamic. The folks who closely follow Navios will be interested in their chartering of the Fair Lady hauling coal from Baltimore >> India @41.25. Is the coal market getting bonkers or did Navios slip and have to cover a COA when they did not have a vessel available? Angel had one vessel lose a main motor a while back if I remember correct. That may explain the expensive charter they incurred. This week also produced a VLOC fixture for the 208,000dwt Hyundai Frontier trading 8 – 9 MOS for $16,000 daily. I bet the owner has reflected on the situation that his vessel holds ~ four Supramax cargoes worth of tonnage, yet earns close to the same as just one Supra. It’s the gear that grabs!
Good Fortunes
Ski
GNK @9.68 -7.63%, SB @8.31 -11.50%, OCNF @ 0.56 -15.15%. Looks like the SB offering has been cooked.
The tweendeckers (TBSI) recovering almost 8% after being on a t&b laggard alert, to lead all bulkers for the week. Ski points for Boomer. Cousin Eddie at OCNF should be ashamed of himself. He is not. He can’t help it, in his blood ya know! Navios Partners has made the leader board 2 weeks in a row qualifying it for a t&b alert. Partners does seem to hold gains better than a lot of others. Maybe let them hit 3 weeks in a row, and then its hammer time.
The Baltics: BDI @1296 -5.81%, BCI @1564 -2.97%, BPI @1514 -10.73%, BSI @1414 -2.95%,
BHSI @796 +1.27%. The panasisters are just rolling over and giving it away. The handies now have 9 consecutive weeks without a rate loss. The wheat fixtures coming in will surely drive the BHSI over the 800 plateau? Yet as we say that, we acknowledge one of the wheat fixtures was actually a Supra steaming to Israel. Boomer James reports somewhat stoically that “Those with the gear, shall persevere!”
The Fixtures: Ore =17, Coal =4, T/C =99, Period =12, Wheat =2, HSS =1, total =135. The ore chores fall from last weeks 19 (and that was a slow week) making this week…slower. Best T/C activity since week 7 when we had 106. Triple digit t/c numbers are expected most times of year. The period volume dipped again, and it showed up in the diminished rates achieved. Capes are still being inked at more than double spot.
Top period rates this week vs. spot.
Capes: Blue Cho Oyo trading 11 – 13 MOS @$15,000 spot =$7,030.
Pmax: S. Nicole trading 11-13 MOS @$15,500 spot =$12,407.
Smax: Filia Joy trading 3 – 5 MOS @$18,500 Spot =$14,870.
The Vessels: VLOC =2, Capes =27, Post Pmax =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =53, Smax =22, Hmax =12,
Hsize =3, Bulkers <30 =6, total =135. The really big ladies (VLOC) captured a couple fixtures denying the Capes a shot at the 30 mark. The bulkers <30K enjoying the early wheat harvest boost in employment. Supra vessels trying to hold in USG amidst an armada of sister ships advertising prompt. We read that 5 bulkers a day for the rest of the year are supposed to hit the water. Way to go owners, way to go!
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Bonita, Navios Altamira, Torm Rolholm, Ionian Eagle, Thor Freindship, Thor Dynamic. The folks who closely follow Navios will be interested in their chartering of the Fair Lady hauling coal from Baltimore >> India @41.25. Is the coal market getting bonkers or did Navios slip and have to cover a COA when they did not have a vessel available? Angel had one vessel lose a main motor a while back if I remember correct. That may explain the expensive charter they incurred. This week also produced a VLOC fixture for the 208,000dwt Hyundai Frontier trading 8 – 9 MOS for $16,000 daily. I bet the owner has reflected on the situation that his vessel holds ~ four Supramax cargoes worth of tonnage, yet earns close to the same as just one Supra. It’s the gear that grabs!
Good Fortunes
Ski
Friday, April 8, 2011
Dry Bits Week 14
Top & Bottom 5 Day: EXM 4.56 +7.80%, DRYS 5.03 +5.23%, SHIP 0.61 +1.66%, >>> NM 5.66 -2.91%, OCNF 0.66 -4.34%, TBSI 1.64 -8.88%. The folks holding DRYS are smiling gaining over 5% during a bad BDI week. Readers are reminded TBSI has made the T&B5 as a laggard two consecutive weeks. This qualifies the tweeners for a TonMileTrader alert. Boomer James is stiring up the bottomfeeders for another strike I believe.
The Baltics: BDI @1376 -9.47%, BCI @1612 -10.04%, BPI @1696 -11.89%, BSI @1457 -3.57%, BHSI @786 no change. The Panasisters taking it on the chin outpacing the Capesize rate loss as weekly volume remains significantly depressed for the Panamax market. After 8 consecutive weeks of Handysize rates rising The BHSI was held to no change as negative sentiment carried the week across the classes. The reality of the tonnage supply and numbers of vessels available promptly takes the wind out of the owners sails.
The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =9, T/C =87, Period =18, Corn =2, total =135. The ore chores came off a bit compared to last week but weve seen worse. Surprised and glad to see our favorite coal burner Taipower was back in the game after also hitting hard last week. Period volume was better but still far short of our expectations. Both loads of corn originated near DryBits headquarters in the Midwest, then down the Mississippi River sailing Algeria.
Top Period Rates this week vs. spot
Capes; Blue Cho Oyo 11 – 13 MOS $16,000 vs. $8,381
Pmax; Filippo Lembo 5 – 7 MOS $23,000 vs. $13,937
Smax; Magnum Energy 3 – 5 MOS $17,000 vs. $15,345
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =28, Post P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =45, Smax =34, Hmax =8, Hsize =5, Bulkers <30 =4, total =135. The big girls kept par with last weeks fair showing. The Panamax vessel demand comes in below healthy levels and we note a number of mid sized ports remain out of service. The Supras nailed 17% more fixtures compared to last week on improved ECSA activity.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Golden Seas, Bonafide, Elpis, Coronis, Akmi. Surfing the public discussion boards I saw an interesting headline to a thread about DRYS being unaffected by the BDI. As long as any company is operating dry bulk vessels, the BDI is directly involved in share price performance. There are no equities in our sector that are not married to the Baltic, and to observe any chart divergence is only temporary at best. Shipping always reverts to the mean, and the Baltic is our oscillator.
Good Fortunes
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1376 -9.47%, BCI @1612 -10.04%, BPI @1696 -11.89%, BSI @1457 -3.57%, BHSI @786 no change. The Panasisters taking it on the chin outpacing the Capesize rate loss as weekly volume remains significantly depressed for the Panamax market. After 8 consecutive weeks of Handysize rates rising The BHSI was held to no change as negative sentiment carried the week across the classes. The reality of the tonnage supply and numbers of vessels available promptly takes the wind out of the owners sails.
The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =9, T/C =87, Period =18, Corn =2, total =135. The ore chores came off a bit compared to last week but weve seen worse. Surprised and glad to see our favorite coal burner Taipower was back in the game after also hitting hard last week. Period volume was better but still far short of our expectations. Both loads of corn originated near DryBits headquarters in the Midwest, then down the Mississippi River sailing Algeria.
Top Period Rates this week vs. spot
Capes; Blue Cho Oyo 11 – 13 MOS $16,000 vs. $8,381
Pmax; Filippo Lembo 5 – 7 MOS $23,000 vs. $13,937
Smax; Magnum Energy 3 – 5 MOS $17,000 vs. $15,345
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =28, Post P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =45, Smax =34, Hmax =8, Hsize =5, Bulkers <30 =4, total =135. The big girls kept par with last weeks fair showing. The Panamax vessel demand comes in below healthy levels and we note a number of mid sized ports remain out of service. The Supras nailed 17% more fixtures compared to last week on improved ECSA activity.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Golden Seas, Bonafide, Elpis, Coronis, Akmi. Surfing the public discussion boards I saw an interesting headline to a thread about DRYS being unaffected by the BDI. As long as any company is operating dry bulk vessels, the BDI is directly involved in share price performance. There are no equities in our sector that are not married to the Baltic, and to observe any chart divergence is only temporary at best. Shipping always reverts to the mean, and the Baltic is our oscillator.
Good Fortunes
Ski
Saturday, April 2, 2011
Week 13
Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @8.90 +6.07%, NMM @20.66 +3.87%, NM @5.83 +3.55% >>>PRGN @2.84 -4.69%, SHIP @0.60 -4.76%, TBSI @1.80 -15.09%. The leader board is no big surprise, but rest assured the tweendeckers being sacked for over 15% has garnered the attention of more than one bottomfeeder. The dry bulk equities had 5 gainers and 11 losers for the week. The Economou controlled Dryships weathered their earnings report better than we expected. It had been our opinion that the share price would have made the laggard board with double digits losses as investors digested the report. Maybe I read it wrong?
The Baltics: BDI @1520 -5.36%, BCI @1792 -2.38%, BPI @1925 -7.36%, BSI @1511 -5.73%, BHSI @786 +0.76%. The Panasisters lost ground with reduced demand, signaling charterers have the upper hand at the fixture table. Rates also decaying thru competition for cargoes, AKA lots of Ladies to pick from. The little ones push to 8 consecutive weeks of BHSI rates improving. The 800 barrier is proving elusive.
The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =6, T/C =81, Period =13, total =124. The ore chores almost doubled over last week with the Capes grabbing all but one of the ore fixtures. The coal demand was almost nonexistent without our bud Taipower who took 2/3rds of the coal runs. Remember next week they won’t be buying the fuel if they follow their normal demand. The BPI is perhaps as heavily influenced by coal as the BCI is by ore.
Top Period rates vs. spot
Capes; Semirio trading 2 years $17,250, spot $10,371.
Pmax; Navios Star trading 4-6 MOS $18,500, spot $15,807.
Smax; Port Maubert trading 1 year $18,000, spot $15,921.
The Vessels: VLOC =1, Capes =28, Post Pmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =42, SMax =29, Hmax =9, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30 =3, total =124. The Supras seeing work in USG but still waiting for the jump that was predicted. The Panamax fleet had 15 less fixtures compared to last week and it showed up in London.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Akili, Calm Seas, Navios Star, Torm Salthome, Nirefs, Aliki, Baltic Leopard, Thor Endeavor, Navios Armonia, Heron, Genco Tiberious. Once again we see Navios Partners among the leaders and remind folks about this company if you wish to hold a shipper long. I have swing traded (surfed) NMM several times always thinking if I was going to hold a shipper long, it would be this one. Boomer James has thrown GNK up on his dry erase board next to TBSI. Alarming!
Good Fortunes
Ski
The Baltics: BDI @1520 -5.36%, BCI @1792 -2.38%, BPI @1925 -7.36%, BSI @1511 -5.73%, BHSI @786 +0.76%. The Panasisters lost ground with reduced demand, signaling charterers have the upper hand at the fixture table. Rates also decaying thru competition for cargoes, AKA lots of Ladies to pick from. The little ones push to 8 consecutive weeks of BHSI rates improving. The 800 barrier is proving elusive.
The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =6, T/C =81, Period =13, total =124. The ore chores almost doubled over last week with the Capes grabbing all but one of the ore fixtures. The coal demand was almost nonexistent without our bud Taipower who took 2/3rds of the coal runs. Remember next week they won’t be buying the fuel if they follow their normal demand. The BPI is perhaps as heavily influenced by coal as the BCI is by ore.
Top Period rates vs. spot
Capes; Semirio trading 2 years $17,250, spot $10,371.
Pmax; Navios Star trading 4-6 MOS $18,500, spot $15,807.
Smax; Port Maubert trading 1 year $18,000, spot $15,921.
The Vessels: VLOC =1, Capes =28, Post Pmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =42, SMax =29, Hmax =9, Hsize =4, Bulkers <30 =3, total =124. The Supras seeing work in USG but still waiting for the jump that was predicted. The Panamax fleet had 15 less fixtures compared to last week and it showed up in London.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Akili, Calm Seas, Navios Star, Torm Salthome, Nirefs, Aliki, Baltic Leopard, Thor Endeavor, Navios Armonia, Heron, Genco Tiberious. Once again we see Navios Partners among the leaders and remind folks about this company if you wish to hold a shipper long. I have swing traded (surfed) NMM several times always thinking if I was going to hold a shipper long, it would be this one. Boomer James has thrown GNK up on his dry erase board next to TBSI. Alarming!
Good Fortunes
Ski
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