Friday, April 8, 2011

Dry Bits Week 14

Top & Bottom 5 Day: EXM 4.56 +7.80%, DRYS 5.03 +5.23%, SHIP 0.61 +1.66%, >>> NM 5.66 -2.91%, OCNF 0.66 -4.34%, TBSI 1.64 -8.88%. The folks holding DRYS are smiling gaining over 5% during a bad BDI week. Readers are reminded TBSI has made the T&B5 as a laggard two consecutive weeks. This qualifies the tweeners for a TonMileTrader alert. Boomer James is stiring up the bottomfeeders for another strike I believe.

The Baltics: BDI @1376 -9.47%, BCI @1612 -10.04%, BPI @1696 -11.89%, BSI @1457 -3.57%, BHSI @786 no change. The Panasisters taking it on the chin outpacing the Capesize rate loss as weekly volume remains significantly depressed for the Panamax market. After 8 consecutive weeks of Handysize rates rising The BHSI was held to no change as negative sentiment carried the week across the classes. The reality of the tonnage supply and numbers of vessels available promptly takes the wind out of the owners sails.

The Fixtures: Ore =19, Coal =9, T/C =87, Period =18, Corn =2, total =135. The ore chores came off a bit compared to last week but weve seen worse. Surprised and glad to see our favorite coal burner Taipower was back in the game after also hitting hard last week. Period volume was better but still far short of our expectations. Both loads of corn originated near DryBits headquarters in the Midwest, then down the Mississippi River sailing Algeria.

Top Period Rates this week vs. spot

Capes; Blue Cho Oyo 11 – 13 MOS $16,000 vs. $8,381

Pmax; Filippo Lembo 5 – 7 MOS $23,000 vs. $13,937

Smax; Magnum Energy 3 – 5 MOS $17,000 vs. $15,345

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =28, Post P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =45, Smax =34, Hmax =8, Hsize =5, Bulkers <30 =4, total =135. The big girls kept par with last weeks fair showing. The Panamax vessel demand comes in below healthy levels and we note a number of mid sized ports remain out of service. The Supras nailed 17% more fixtures compared to last week on improved ECSA activity.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Golden Seas, Bonafide, Elpis, Coronis, Akmi. Surfing the public discussion boards I saw an interesting headline to a thread about DRYS being unaffected by the BDI. As long as any company is operating dry bulk vessels, the BDI is directly involved in share price performance. There are no equities in our sector that are not married to the Baltic, and to observe any chart divergence is only temporary at best. Shipping always reverts to the mean, and the Baltic is our oscillator.

Good Fortunes
Ski

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