Top + Bottom 5 Day: SHIP @0.497 +5.74%, SB @8.28 +4.81%, DSX @11.31 +1.07%, >>>GNK @7.83 -6.00%, BALT @6.74 -8.04%, TBSI @1.32 -22.35%. Peter Pans (Peter C. Georgiopoulos) magic powder bag must be empty. We still are amazed at the strategy of him creating a dropdown (BALT) then deploying those assets in the spot market knowing full well rates would come under heavy pressure from the order book and delivery dates. He could have followed Angel’s lead (NM & NMM) and protected/improved the GNK balance sheet, but instead threw caution to the wind and rolled the dice. I don’t think so… Peter knew exactly what he was doing, and why. How he can look his common share investors in the eye remains a mystery to some industry observers. We are hopeful TMT Guest Editor Ohms Law will find the time to look at one of his favorite’s Safe Bulkers and share his projections and price targets with our readers some time in the near future. We must look into putting Ohms on the TonMileTrader payroll.
The Baltics: BDI @1306 -2.53%, BCI @1494 -4.59%, BPI @1720 -2.76%, BSI @1392 +0.43%, BHSI @788 -0.50%. The Cape Owners have a bad week at the fixture table as charterers are able to depress rates even as they bring healthy demand. The cape activity was by far the highest so far this year, yet the rates slide ~5%. That had to hurt. The Handies are giving back some hard pressed gains and now seem aligned to a sub 800 summer. What a Bummer!
The Fixtures: Ore =28, Coal =7, Baux =1, Urea =2, Corn =1, Maize =1, T/C =106, Period =15, Total =161. The best week of fixtures we have seen in a long time as the Ore Chores came in strong, coupled with healthy t/c volume. Our favorite coal burner TaiPower threw us a curveball when they did not show for a couple weeks in a row. The coal runs improved over last 4 week avg. but did not meet our expectations. I never did find out what they were doing fixing a cape to Taiwan when I did not think they could handle a post pana due to port limitations. Boomer James now indicates he will report back next week on the island’s port infrastructure.
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Guo May Trading 11-13 MOS $11,500 spot = $ 6,002.
Pmax: Fortune E Trading 3-5 MOS $22,000 spot = $13,797.
Smax: Ocean Leader Trading 4-6 MOS $20,250 spot = $14,552.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =37, Post P =4, Kmax =14, Pmax =54, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, Total =161.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Navios Orion, Star Zeta, Genco Vigor, Bonita, Star Reliance. We must mention a surprise fixture from Vale chartering the Catalina on an ore chore running San Nicolas > Rotterdam paying USD$36. We have not seen the mining giant fix much publically of late. I believe they are still puttin on the tonmiles, but do not report the fixtures to the Baltic. I always want to compare Vales entry into the shipping business with the fate of US Steel when they also attempted to be a shipping company. The steel producer’s sizable fleet became the original Navios after they lost the desire to be a shipper and concentrate on just making steel. Btw neither I nor TMT friend Bimco shipping analyst Peter Sand has found very much concrete information on the USS fleet performance. Any scoop ?
Good Fortunes
Ski
Dry Bulk Shipping Market Observations & Commentary
Saturday, May 14, 2011
Friday, May 6, 2011
Dry Bits Week 18
Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @3.05 +3.04%, NM @5.43 +2.64%, FREE @2.63 +1.54%, >>> BALT @7.33 -8.48%, SHIP @0.47 -12.96%, OCNF @0.48 -14.28%. The Equities had 6 gainers and 10 losers for the again short report week. We only have 3 days of fixtures for analysis compared to a normal 5 day report.
The Baltics: BDI @1340 +5.59%, BCI @1566 +0.12%, BPI @1769 +22.0 %, BSI @1386 -0.28%, BHSI @792 -0.62%. The Panasisters again benefitting from ECSA > Cont. and should be supported thru next week as the coal burners step up to the fixture table. We had thought the Handies would have seen more work down South supporting another shot at the 800 mark. Not!
The Fixtures: Ore =10, Coal =2, Bauxite =2, Sugar =1, T/C =89, Period =17, Total =121. The ore chores fall a long way from last weeks 25. I think we will see a bounce next week in coal runs as they have been sub par 2 weeks running. The flooding in the Midwest has forced the Corp to close parts of the Miss River killing the USG. Btw as pointed out earlier in Dry Bits this year’s corn planting is way behind last years. $$$ Corn could get really tight, especially if a lot of acreage resorts to soy. Boomer James reports the local fields are way too wet with more rain coming next few days. The tractors would sink to China!
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Trinity Star 11 – 13 MOS $13,500 $6,342.
Pmax: Glyfada 1 3 – 4 MOS $21,500 $13,825.
Smax: Toxotis 4 – 6 MOS $15,000 $14,334.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =56, Smax =22, Hmax =7, Hsize =3, Bulker <30 =1, Total =121.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Kronos, Emerald, Golden Trader, Golden Strength, Mineral Star, Torm Trader, Navios Titan, Golden Eclipse, Genco Vigour, Corona, Trinity Star, Star Breeze. The crew at Eagle has chartered the Clymene for USD13,000 daily running Ghent > UKC. Good luck to those at home trying to keep track of the shipper’s revenue streams. During the week I read a discussion between a trader and a long, wherein the long concluded the trader’s strategy of hitting the equities for small gains was cheap or amateurish compared to the logical buy and hold strategy. In my opinion it is more fun playing the momentum game, and more importantly, in my portfolio the money tied up holding some Bulker shares has been outperformed by the money made from trading in and out of various shippers. That does not give me the attitude that my strategy is superior! Just plain more fun. At Dry Bits we maintain the bulker equities are currently better suited for attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @3.05 +3.04%, NM @5.43 +2.64%, FREE @2.63 +1.54%, >>> BALT @7.33 -8.48%, SHIP @0.47 -12.96%, OCNF @0.48 -14.28%. The Equities had 6 gainers and 10 losers for the again short report week. We only have 3 days of fixtures for analysis compared to a normal 5 day report.
The Baltics: BDI @1340 +5.59%, BCI @1566 +0.12%, BPI @1769 +22.0 %, BSI @1386 -0.28%, BHSI @792 -0.62%. The Panasisters again benefitting from ECSA > Cont. and should be supported thru next week as the coal burners step up to the fixture table. We had thought the Handies would have seen more work down South supporting another shot at the 800 mark. Not!
The Fixtures: Ore =10, Coal =2, Bauxite =2, Sugar =1, T/C =89, Period =17, Total =121. The ore chores fall a long way from last weeks 25. I think we will see a bounce next week in coal runs as they have been sub par 2 weeks running. The flooding in the Midwest has forced the Corp to close parts of the Miss River killing the USG. Btw as pointed out earlier in Dry Bits this year’s corn planting is way behind last years. $$$ Corn could get really tight, especially if a lot of acreage resorts to soy. Boomer James reports the local fields are way too wet with more rain coming next few days. The tractors would sink to China!
Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.
Capes: Trinity Star 11 – 13 MOS $13,500 $6,342.
Pmax: Glyfada 1 3 – 4 MOS $21,500 $13,825.
Smax: Toxotis 4 – 6 MOS $15,000 $14,334.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =56, Smax =22, Hmax =7, Hsize =3, Bulker <30 =1, Total =121.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Kronos, Emerald, Golden Trader, Golden Strength, Mineral Star, Torm Trader, Navios Titan, Golden Eclipse, Genco Vigour, Corona, Trinity Star, Star Breeze. The crew at Eagle has chartered the Clymene for USD13,000 daily running Ghent > UKC. Good luck to those at home trying to keep track of the shipper’s revenue streams. During the week I read a discussion between a trader and a long, wherein the long concluded the trader’s strategy of hitting the equities for small gains was cheap or amateurish compared to the logical buy and hold strategy. In my opinion it is more fun playing the momentum game, and more importantly, in my portfolio the money tied up holding some Bulker shares has been outperformed by the money made from trading in and out of various shippers. That does not give me the attitude that my strategy is superior! Just plain more fun. At Dry Bits we maintain the bulker equities are currently better suited for attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
Sunday, May 1, 2011
Week 17
Top & Bottom 5 Day: PRGN @2.96 +4.96%, NMM @21.30 +3.64%, NM @5.29 +1.73% >>>
GLBS @8.93 -0.77%, SB @8.15 -1.80%, TBSI @1.72 -2.82%. Navios Partners has been a T&B5 leader four consecutive weeks running. Investors are confident Angel will harvest another tonnage infusion, courtesy of the holding company. I think Partners remains on a suspension of sorts from the omnibus agreement for a prior infraction. It sounded silly when NM announced it, and it sounds silly repeating it today. Anyway… Surf is Up!
The Baltics: BDI @1269 +1.19%, BCI @1564 +1.55%, BPI @1450 +5.30%, BSI @1390 -0.78%, BHSI @797 -0.62%. The Panasisters catch a few waves running ECSA > China. The Handies can’t hold 800 and see the first negative week in over 2 months. With the yards spitting out ships daily (even after slippage) I was surprised by this positive week. Every week it will become mathematically harder to keep even keel at the rate scale.
The Fixtures: Ore =25, Coal =2, Bauxite =1, HSS =1, T/C =71, Period =11, Total =111.
Top Weekly Period Rates and spot.
Capes: KM Kobe 6 – 8 MOS $12,500 spot $6,698
Pmax: Alpha Happiness 4 – 6 MOS $14,750 spot $11,620
Smax: Darya Mahesh 60 – 120 Days $22,750 spot $14,530
The ore chores came in strong considering the shortened week. The coal got scarce with major burners holding back. I am not sure how often this happens but I observed zero fixtures departing USG during the week? Flooding on the Miss River Im thinking plays a big part.
The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =31, Post P =2, Kmax =7, Pmax =47, Smax =19, Hmax =2, Hsize =2, Bulkers <30 =1, Total =111.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the weeks fixture reports. Genco Aquitaine, Navios Sagitarious, Genco Titus, Genco Maximus. The folks who closely follow NMM will be interested in the negative counterparty performance indicated by the Sagitarious being relet for $12,500 daily while the Partners are being paid $26,195 net of commissions daily. Insured or not, counterparty performance remains critical. Folks observing Eagle will wonder about the company chartering a vessel named Topaz running USG > Imingham at $12,000 plus 400K bonus bucks. Hard to believe with all their tonnage none could catch the gulf loading date?
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader
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