Saturday, May 14, 2011

Dry Bits Week 19

Top + Bottom 5 Day: SHIP @0.497 +5.74%, SB @8.28 +4.81%, DSX @11.31 +1.07%, >>>GNK @7.83 -6.00%, BALT @6.74 -8.04%, TBSI @1.32 -22.35%. Peter Pans (Peter C. Georgiopoulos) magic powder bag must be empty. We still are amazed at the strategy of him creating a dropdown (BALT) then deploying those assets in the spot market knowing full well rates would come under heavy pressure from the order book and delivery dates. He could have followed Angel’s lead (NM & NMM) and protected/improved the GNK balance sheet, but instead threw caution to the wind and rolled the dice. I don’t think so… Peter knew exactly what he was doing, and why. How he can look his common share investors in the eye remains a mystery to some industry observers. We are hopeful TMT Guest Editor Ohms Law will find the time to look at one of his favorite’s Safe Bulkers and share his projections and price targets with our readers some time in the near future. We must look into putting Ohms on the TonMileTrader payroll.

The Baltics: BDI @1306 -2.53%, BCI @1494 -4.59%, BPI @1720 -2.76%, BSI @1392 +0.43%, BHSI @788 -0.50%. The Cape Owners have a bad week at the fixture table as charterers are able to depress rates even as they bring healthy demand. The cape activity was by far the highest so far this year, yet the rates slide ~5%. That had to hurt. The Handies are giving back some hard pressed gains and now seem aligned to a sub 800 summer. What a Bummer!

The Fixtures: Ore =28, Coal =7, Baux =1, Urea =2, Corn =1, Maize =1, T/C =106, Period =15, Total =161. The best week of fixtures we have seen in a long time as the Ore Chores came in strong, coupled with healthy t/c volume. Our favorite coal burner TaiPower threw us a curveball when they did not show for a couple weeks in a row. The coal runs improved over last 4 week avg. but did not meet our expectations. I never did find out what they were doing fixing a cape to Taiwan when I did not think they could handle a post pana due to port limitations. Boomer James now indicates he will report back next week on the island’s port infrastructure.

Top Period rates achieved this week vs. spot rate.

Capes: Guo May Trading 11-13 MOS $11,500 spot = $ 6,002.

Pmax: Fortune E Trading 3-5 MOS $22,000 spot = $13,797.

Smax: Ocean Leader Trading 4-6 MOS $20,250 spot = $14,552.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =37, Post P =4, Kmax =14, Pmax =54, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, Total =161.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Navios Orion, Star Zeta, Genco Vigor, Bonita, Star Reliance. We must mention a surprise fixture from Vale chartering the Catalina on an ore chore running San Nicolas > Rotterdam paying USD$36. We have not seen the mining giant fix much publically of late. I believe they are still puttin on the tonmiles, but do not report the fixtures to the Baltic. I always want to compare Vales entry into the shipping business with the fate of US Steel when they also attempted to be a shipping company. The steel producer’s sizable fleet became the original Navios after they lost the desire to be a shipper and concentrate on just making steel. Btw neither I nor TMT friend Bimco shipping analyst Peter Sand has found very much concrete information on the USS fleet performance. Any scoop ?

Good Fortunes

Ski

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