Saturday, February 18, 2012

Dry Bits Week 7


Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day:  FREE @1.71 (+167.19%), DRYS @3.71 (+23.67%), SHIP @3.38 (+19.01%), >>> the sectors only laggard this week SBLK @.965 (-13.84%).
This is the 3rd consecutive week DRYS has been a T&B leader earning a trade alert in the process.  The big winner this week is FREE gaining 167% on 5 positive days of trading.  The stock closed the week gaining 18% on Friday alone.  Why?  
   
The Baltic Exchange:  BDI =717 (+0.28%), BCI =1461 (+0.27%), BPI =949 (-1.86%),
BSI =641 (-0.62%), BHSI =379 (+3.55%).  The panasisters and their supermax cousin’s 
are bumming hard about the coal runs evaporating.  Back to reality?

The Fixtures:  Ore =24, Coal =7, T/C =63, Period =13, Grain =6, Petcoke =1, Sulphur =1, Urea =1, total =116.  The ore chores finally kicked up some volume, (the best of this year) blowing past the 4 week average of 13 fixtures by 83%.  The coal smokers cooled from the seasonally exaggerated previous month’s demand of 11 fixtures per week, and reported a more normal 7 inked coal carrying contracts.  The grain volume in the USG comes in with healthy volume, but paying very low rates….
            Best Done Period vs. Spot
Capes:  Annou Max      5-8 MOS  $12,500  vs. $5,316.
PMax:  Garv Prem      4-6 MOS  $11,000  vs. $7,787.
SMax:  Densa Tiger    2-4 MOS  $10,500  vs. $6,700.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =25, PostP =2, KMax =12, PMax =34, SMax =33,
HMax =2, Hsize =2, Bulkers =6, Total =116.  The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports this week; NAVIOS HIOS, TORM ANHOLT, CLIO, REDONDO, TARSUS, TESS BULKER, STX IRIS, AZUR, TORM TRADER, GOLDEN ECLIPSE, SFL HUMBER, PLACID SEA, OCEAN CONFIDENCE, NEWLEAD VICTORIA.

Ski Notes:  At Dry Bits we invariably will ruffle some feathers as we alert the call for a short on DRYS this week.  Scoff at this if you like.  This is not an investment, it is a gamble.  With regard to dry bulk shipping equities it has been our experience that any company who leads the sector for 2 consecutive weeks it is a reasonable guess they will pull back so short 100 shares.  In the event a company leads the sector for three consecutive weeks it is an even more reasonable guess the shares will pull back so short 100 shares.  This suggestion annoys all the real investors I am told.  Messes up their valuations or something…. It should not.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader

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