Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom: TBSI @3.15 +10.52%, FREE @3.93 +7.37%, SB @8.66 +4.58% >>> EGLE @4.89 -2.58%, SHIP @.932 -8.62%, GLBS @9.78 -18.5%. The top dog this week TBSI was a no brainer after setting a Dry Bits record free fall when they announced they decided to not pay any bills for a while. Boomer James has a disturbing (and annoying) smile pasted to his “pie hole” suggesting he is making some money. Our weekly Laggard Globus Maritime Limited (GLBS) took some serious lumps. Not sure what’s down with that!

The Baltics: BDI @1795 -10.2%, BCI @2440 -10.39%, BPI @1873 -8.05%, BSI @ 1539 -4.58%, BHSI @ 835 -0.47%. This year’s low BDI of 1700 may be tested after Christmas. Refer to Boomers late night BDI low summary post. Below 1700 the BDI archive will record another yearly low BDI occurring in December.

The Fixtures: Ore =16, Coal =3, HSS =1, Wheat =1, Scrap =1, T/C =75, Period =12 total =109. The ore matched last weeks volume and although some Scrap, HSS, and South American Wheat fixtures came to life, they were not enough to offset the drop from last weeks more impressive fixture count of 135. A 19% drop in weekly fixture volume helps set up the descending Baltic we have witnessed.
The Vessels: Capes =24, PPmax =1, Kmax =5, Pmax = 47, Smax =23, Hmax =4, Hsize =3, Bulkers <30K =2, total =109. ….really one of these Capes is a VLOC.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Cielo, Navios Hope, Nirefs, Star Delta, Torm Island, Star Epsilon, Dione, Navios Bonheur, Torm Anholt.

Ski Notes: We spotted a fixture loading 250,000 dwt iron ore on a vessel tbn traveling Saldanha Bay >>Qingdao chartered by KUMBA. This was counted in our report as an “ore chore” capesize fixture because Dry Bits has not yet begun considering the VLOC class. We will discuss that implication in the future. Btw this load port is in South Africa and is described as the safest, deepest and hobbitually (as in hobbit like) coolest port in all Africa. No Surf ???
Also our friends at Capital Link Shipping erroneously indicated a 27.20% drop in the BDI so Ski used the reported BDI of 1795@DryShips website.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Idus Martii

Ahoy There!
The relevance of this late night research is a matter of opinion. You might have already picked up on this, but Boomer James (being a slow steamer) has looked over the BDI tonight!!

The BDI reached the following lows during the past 10 Years.
2000 Feb 7th 1276
2001 Dec 17th 868
2002 Feb 1st 908
2003 Feb 3rd 1530
2004 Jun 22nd 2622
2005 Aug 3rd 1747
2006 Jan 23rd 2084
2007 Feb 1st 4219
2008 Dec 5th 663
2009 Jan 2nd 773
2010 Jul 15th 1700** yet to be declared official

The month of February stands out as the Laggard leader, followed closely by December and January. If you are considering a LONG dry bulk investment (or adding to an existing LONG position) you could “lay up” waiting for the Ides of March. It does not look like this is the right time of year to buy a shipper.

Readers are reminded that Ski holds the opinion that shipping stocks (at the present time) are suggested as trades, best suited for “attentive momentum investors” when compared to the best interests of traditional LONG investors of 1 year or more. Water Transportation Surfing would best describe his suggested investment mode of operation.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom 5 Day: SB @8.28 +1.71%, Safe Bulkers the lone gainer >>>
GNK @14.24 -6.06%, NM @5.05 -6.99%, TBSI @2.86 -9.77%. The entire dry world decayed an average ~3.5% over the last 5 days. The tweendeck operator TBSI retains its 4 week role as anchor dropping another quick 10%. DB analyst Boomer James is eyeballing this everyday...uttering something about Santa’ Reindeer riding the tween.

The Baltics 5 Day: BDI @1999 -4.58%, BCI @2723 +1.07%, BPI @2037 -13.57%,
BSI @1613 -3.41%, BHSI @839 +1.08%. Below 2000 we ask ourselves about things like libor rates and the like. The Panasister’s suffer after midmonth coal requirements are easily covered.

Dry Fixtures & Vessel Employment: Ore =16, Coal =1, T/C =99, Period =19
Total =135. The amount of fixtures this week is better than last, yet well below the desired mark of 150. The weeks 135 fixtures utilized the following vessel’s…
Capes =20, PPmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =77, Smax =32, Hmax =7, Hsize =4,
Bulkers <30K =9.

Familiar Vessel’s: Torm Skagen, Genco Champion, Torm Anholt.

Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 49 (03/12/2010 - 10/12/2010)

This was another non-decisive week with the main motive being the total lack of any clear direction and trend. We feel that going this way on our job as analysts becomes really dull and sometimes we feel practically “useless” as not being able to read  and deduct any signals from the super volatile market fluctuations  makes us just wonder how ill or  not is the fate of the Dry Bulk markets? This week’s interesting moves were those of the Capes that made a small shortlived uprise towards the end of last week that momentarily gave us some happy thoughts that were quickly reversed as the index made 4 consecutive falls closing the week with a bitter after-taste. The Panamax size segment has already added more fuel to the existing volatility and has altered the uncertain moving pattern to ups and downs that start now to fluctuate every 2-3 days!!!! It is  rather odd that only the smaller sizes the Supramaxes and the Handysize ships are on a constant upward sloped pattern, and the Supras after 29 negative Baltic Exchange sessions are already counting 14 consecutive positive sessions and during the past 3 weeks have regained more than 23% of their strength. On a similar manner the smaller Handies

have 13 positive sessions and this seems to be on a steady motive that may last during the week to come.

Read the full Dry Bulk Market Highlights - Week 49 (03/12/2010 - 10/12/2010)

Best Regards

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker

Dry Bits Weekly

The Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS @6.33 +7.65%, NMM @19.58 +3.27%, SHIP @1.06 +2.91% >>>
BALT @11.03 -5.24%, SBLK @2.85 -5.62%, TBSI @3.17 -8.11%. A few years back the entire sector was/seemed driven by DRYS. When DRYS went up the sector followed, and vice versa. This week only three other shippers followed DRYS lead while the remaining 2/3rds lost ground. The Top & Bottom repeat alarm has identified TBSI as a 3 week + loser, and that qualifies a long consideration, and yes DRYS has made the watch list as a short consideration closing on the leader board two weeks in a row. Pairs-Players!! The tweendecker operator is down 58% yoy.

The Baltics: BDI @2095 -3.36%, BCI @2694 -9.68%, BPI @2357 -1.04%,
BSI @1670 +4.83%, BHSI @830 +1.71%. At this rate within 3 weeks the Capesize vessels will be available at less than the cost of a Panamax. Kadywhompus!

The Fixtures (Thurs to Thurs): Iron Ore =12, Coal =8, HSS =2, T/C =72, Period =12, total =106. The 8 Coal fixtures soared past last weeks results of 1, while the “Ore Chores” fell off last weeks 23 fixes reporting ~half that amount (12) this week. There were no Capesize vessels taken on Period this week as the Panasisters took 10 of the 12 Period charters that got inked. The big girls poached several of normal Pmax coal fixtures as the cape/pmax ratio slips closer to inverted. Why rent a much smaller Pmax when for a few dollars more you can get a big fat lady?

The Vessels: Capes =17, PPmax =3, Kmax =5, Pmax =48, Smax =19, Hmax =4, Hsize =4, Bulkers =6, total =106.

Ski Notes: We saw a couple noteworthy fixes over the week. The first eye opener would be Cargill the giant food producer has fixed a TBN Capesize vessel to haul 160Kdwt of iron ore from Tubarao/Qingdao at the rate of $22. My guess here is they will be using one of their own chartered in vessels that was not presently employed hauling foodstuffs.

The next fix that catches our eye has Navios chartering the Panamax Daniela Schulte from HAMPTON ROADS to SAKAIDE hauling 70,000 dwt of Coal for a staggering USD44/ton. Angel is probably being forced to cover a COA commitment that somehow fell through the cracks. Keep in mind that a COA does not require a dedicated vessel, and with the idea being that Navios would always have a planned vessel available to cover the commitment, it’s a fair bet to say somebody got their butts chewed. Forty Four Dollars a Ton!

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Weekly "prescoop"

Curious Navios Charter.... DRYS makes the DB short consideration
criteria... Capes poaching the Pmax picnic...Cargill the Agriculture
Giant is moving Iron Ore...Panasisters showing some sort of staying
power...

"Upon us all, a little rain must fall" (Led Zepplin) as the story
goes. Dad is having a rough go now and therefore our report is
running late. I just won't laptop at his hospital bedside. Dad did
enjoy a websearch when we typed in LayTime.


Good Fortunes

Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 48 (26/11/2010 - 03/12/2010)

This was another week of mixed feelings that failed to give us any real sense of direction. However we feel that the Large ships, namely the Capes and VLOC’s are in for some hard times ahead. Not necessarily “tomorrow”, but surely in the year to come. We are one month away from clearing out 2010 and this year was overall a very good one, all “other things considering”…!!! We feel that China has lead the way forward, has given us some positive demand for cargoes, has generated momentum and has been the steam engine that gave power to the dry bulk markets. Had it not been for China’s constant and insatiable appetite for raw materials, and general imports together with providing the world with a massive wealth of exports, we would be facing a collapsed dry cargo freight market. Simply as that! The effects of the inflow and vast additions of many new ships in 2010 has been moderated by China and partly by the other developing and emerging countries.

Read the full Dry Bulk Market Highlights - Week 48 (26/11/2010 - 03/12/2010)

Best Regards

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker

Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS @5.88 +13.07%, SBLK @3.02 +5.96%, EXM @5.85 +4.46% >>> FREE @3.92 -1.75%, BALT @11.64 -4.59%, TBSI @3.47 -11.92%.
The strategic maneuvering of Mr. Economou regarding his publicly traded entity known as Dryships, (DRYS) has once again resulted in controversy over the fairness (or not) that the CEO affords existing common shareholders. Uncle George certainly knows what he is doing with the direction of the company, and you can bet this will be to his personal benefit. Questioning whether or not this will be in the best interest of the individual shareholders is an important task best left to those private holders as they analyze the recent events. On the laggards roster TBSI smells like some old stink bait that has the bottom feeders surely preparing for a feast. Boomer James thinks the Tweendeckers are insulated from the “China Syndrome” and should they ever resolve the banking issues…..

The Baltics: BDI @2168 -0.09%, BCI @2983 -7.32%, BPI @2382 +2.23%,
BSI @1593 +7.20%, BHSI @816 +3.80%. Capesize losses hammered the broader BDI offsetting the gains made in smaller vessel classes. The Supramaxes have done well for two consecutive weeks now. Boomer James thinks that Eagle’s (EGLE) fleet of S&H Maxes are insulated from the “China Syndrome” and should they ever resolve the banking issues ….

Dry Bulk Fixtures Thursday to Thursday: Ore =23, Coal =1, Corn =1, T/C =105,
Period =13, for a total of 143 fixtures. This week the number of “ore chores” increased (23vs.17) when compared to last week, yet owners were still obliged to take what the charterers offered. Attaining “last done” would be considered over the top. The commercial distinctions populating reports for the week are as follows. Capes =27, PPmax =1, Kmax =9, Pmax =57, Smax =35, Hmax =5, Smax =3, Bulkers <30K =6.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Melodia, Torm Island, Genco Provence, Navios Primavera, Genco Constantine, Torm Trader, Nirefs, Navios Kypros.

Ski Notes: Our perpetually contributing dry bulk analyst Boomer James is not a member of the editorial group here at DB, and his comments do not necessarily jive with the remainder of our staff. The truth is Ski has suspected Boomer (similar to GE ) maintains an agenda that may prove wholly self serving, yet possibly beneficial to others. In a vote of measured confidence our group states that “Boomer knows Squat about shipping”. As seasoned shippers I am hopeful that you know at least squat about our beloved industry called shipping. “The squat effect is the hydrodynamic phenomenon by which a vessel moving quickly through shallow water creates an area of lowered pressure under its bottom that causes the ship to "squat" lower in the water than would otherwise be expected.” So now thanks to this roasting of our analyst, you all know squat about shipping and should not be grounding your bottoms.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 47 (19/11/2010 - 26/11/2010)

The weekly Dry Cargo Market "Highlights" Report for Week 47 (19/11/2010 - 26/11/2010) by N. Cotzias Shipping Consultants is out. Please read it at Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 47 (19/11/2010 - 26/11/2010)

Best Regards

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker

http://shipping-markets.blogspot.com/

N. Cotzias Shipping

Dry Bits

MOL Power Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Ltd. (MOL; President: Koichi Muto) today announced the signing of a long-term transport contract with Vale International SA, a subsidiary of Vale S.A. for two very large ore carriers (VLOCs) on November 18. Two 300,000 DWT-class newbuilding vessels, which will be constructed at Universal Shipbuilding Corporation and slated for completion in 2012 and 2013, will serve the Vale-China shuttle service , transporting iron ore for 25 years. MOL, as one of the world’s largest Cape-size bulker operators, already operates five 300,000-class VLOCs This is not the first “China Chore” MOL has signed. MOL previously concluded a long-term transport contract with Ansteel Group (China) Is this a match made in Heaven? We shall see.

Offshore 247 Brunei Shell Petroleum has extended the contract for Seadrill's rig. The contract value is estimated to approximately $131 million. The new contract is scheduled to start in direct continuation of the current contract with Shell, at the end of the first quarter 2012, Seadrill informs. The holders of DRYS might wish to reconsider if any spinoff of the drilling segment should really be included on their “wish list” for Santa. The mixed fleet strategy is arguably the only viable option to survival in a Chinese dominated dry bulk world.

Baird Maritime Denmark: Tanker and dry bulk shipper, TORM, has entered into an agreement to sell the two Kamsarmax dry bulk newbuildings, ‘TORM Karen’ and ‘TORM Kate’. Both vessels are planned to be delivered to TORM in the first quarter of 2011. The newbuildings have been sold for a total consideration of US$90 million with a total net loss of US$16 million. Following the sale of the vessels, TORM's owned fleet consists of 68 product tankers and two dry bulk vessels. In addition, TORM has seven product tankers and two dry bulk vessels on order. It would be a surprise if TORM does not cancel the remaining two bulkers on order. btw they plan to take the hit for reporting purposes in Q1-11. Bottom feeders alert!>

The Oregonian An Australian coal company wants to build a coal-export terminal at a private port in Longview, Wash., a move that would allow 5.7 million tons of U.S. coal exports to Asia each year just as environmental activists are trying to shut down coal-fired power plants in Washington and Oregon. Millennium Bulk Logistics, a subsidiary of Australia’s Ambre Energy, plans to build the first major U.S. export terminal on the West Coast along the banks of the Columbia River. Something just doesn’t sound right about an Aussie company building an export terminal in the US. Could this have something to do with the new Australian Export Taxes?
Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Weekly

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: BALT @12.20 +0.49%, NMM @18.55 -0.53%, GNK @15.08 -2.52% >>>
EXM @5.60 -6.66%, NM @5.25 -6.74%, TBSI @3.94 -7.29%. The leader board being populated with only one company showing a gain for the week says it all. The laggards of our beloved bulkers may as well have been a roll call of the entire lot. Tough week for all our equities, yet the Baltic held.

The Baltics:
BDI @2170 +0.27%, BCI @3233 -7.52%, BPI @2330 +12.94%,
BSI @1486 +3.84%, BHSI @788 -0.88%. The Panasisters carry the broader BDI, offsetting the Capesize declines. It was good to see the Supra’s get some mojo.

Dry Fixtures: Huge improvement in fixture volume showing a total of 147 fixtures considering last week rang up only 110. The coal fixtures fell off the pace from last weeks 9 down to only a couple (2) this week. There must be a bunch buried in the T/C grouping. The Cape fixes reported back to back weekly employment of 23 vessels. This is traditionally kind of low for the big girls. Thursday to Thursday results,
Ore =17, Coal =2, Soy Meal =1, Ferts. =1, T/C =109, Period =17, Total =147.
The fixtures were distributed as follows.
Capes =23, PPmax =1, Kmax =7, Pmax =61, Smax =37, Hmax = 7, Hsize = 7, Bulkers =4.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Hope, Genco Raptor, Genco Picardi, Navios Star, Newlead Markela.Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits

Ahoy There!
Some dry bits of news.

Golden Destiny:
In the demolition market, 83 vessels reported to have been headed to the scrap yards within October equaling a total deadweight of 2,172,061 tons, indicating a positive m-o-m change of 10.6%. The bulk carrier sector has showed some sings of positive movement with 15 vessels reported for scrap equaling a total deadweight of 815,172 tons, signaling an outstanding increase of 200% since previous month’s activity. Nevertheless, the volume of bulk carrier’s demolition transactions during the year to date is down by 53% in comparison with a similar period of 2009. The closing statement that bulker scrapping is 53% down from last year is testimony that the ship-owners will not be deterred by the facts and figures relative to supply and demand analysis. These folks are “weight watchers” and all that really matters to them is Tonnage, as in “I Control More Tonnage”. An ever increasing desire that will be satisfied with diminishing returns! It is Ski’s thought that they should seek help.

Port News:Australia’s Hay Point port, the world’s biggest export harbor for coal, may almost double its shipping capacity after the development of two terminals at the Dudgeon Point site, North Queensland Bulk Ports Corp. says. Construction may start as early as 2014, he said. Dudgeon Point is about 4 kilometers (2.5 miles) north of the existing facilities, which are 1,000 kilometers north of Queensland’s capital, Brisbane. Is anybody willing to bet about whether or not the Dudgeon Point terminals will handle “Chinamax” size vessels? As discussed previously by Dry Bits friend and S&P Broker Theo Scholiadis from N. Cotzias Shipping when he indicated we should not be surprised when China begins buying and building the monsters.

Freight News:Prices for coal shipped from South Africa’s Richards Bay, the continent’s biggest export facility for the fuel, rose to the highest level in more than two years on Chinese demand. “The bulk of recent imports have been from China,” Amrita Sen, a London-based analyst with Barclays Capital, said by phone today. Buyers have increasingly turned to South Africa for coal because supplies from Indonesia have been hampered by rainfall and Australian shipments face infrastructure bottlenecks, she said. I just read how the low grade stuff is going to India to fuel power stations, and today these folks say China. Maybe they are talking about higher grades of coal that are also available at RB? I’m not too sure but both stories mentioned the heavy rains in Indo, so maybe we got that part right.

World Economy News:Germany’s economy minister Rainer Bruederle has given an upbeat assessment of his country’s recovery, including the assertion that “full employment will soon be possible”. He said that Germans were “doing well and spending again”, and that domestic consumption was strong. Data released this week showed German business confidence at a 20-year high. German optimism is in marked contrast with the gloom engulfing some European economies struggling with high debts. This is an assessment we Yankee’s will not hear from our Government any time soon. It is good news nonetheless. I wonder what the BDI would look like in a world with full American employment returning soon.  Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits

Ahoy There!
Yesterday the BDI gained 0.64% closing at 2213. The Pmax girls got the big (3.88%) push followed (although less significantly) by the Smax & Hmax classes leaving only the Capesize class losing ground for the session. We have not had a chance to look at the fixtures for the week but suspect the Pannies are benefiting from some coal movements. I checked the weekly’s that are out his Thanksgiving Day morning and found few stories noteworthy. Our Dry Bits Report will be out around the usual Friday or Saturday as Ski remains occupied with visiting Grandsons.

Enjoy The Holiday
Ski

Dry Bits

The Baltic Indices remained flat yesterday with the BPI being the only real mover gaining 2.47% to 2112.

I saw in the news (MutualMar) that beginning Dec 1st 2010 the Chinese will have a policy forbidding “vicious competition” among shipping lines. They have decided that zero and negative freight have an adverse effect on the industry. Perhaps they might eventually come to similar conclusions regarding the shipbuilding industry. If they allow too many vessels to be produced nobody will make much money. Don’t hold your breath waiting on that idea.

The South African government is considering regulation of (Richards Bay) coal exports. This stems from a local electricity producer “Eshkom” complaint that the low quality SA coal is being shipped to higher paying import nations (aka India) that also utilize the low end (low calorific value) fuel, rather than sell the coal to them at a lower rate. They worry if the miners sell too much coal to higher priced bidders there won’t be enough left over for them. The scary part being this type news will become more common as supply concerns multiply. Look at the Indian Ore export ban and why the issue came about. It could quickly become a national concern as vote seeking politicians convince the masses that the Country’s “National Resources” are being exploited by foreigners.

The events unfolding in the Korea’s are paramount to all other shipping related stories today. There is no greater threat to our already beleaguered industry. We should all be praying.

Ski

Shipping Markets: Where are the VL's going?

Dear Readers,

I'm sure you've all read the interesting rumours regarding VLBCs (and/or Chinamaxes) and VLCCs. What puts these behemoths in the "Top News" sections is that the sheer volume of cargo they carry and the economies of scale that they allow, can do nothing other than cause a shift in the market. So let's put these rumours to rest and see what the facts say:

Tankers:

With 102 VLCCs available for the next 30 days in the Arabian Gulf, I think it is safe to say that it is a bit overcrowded. In the AG - Far East route, VLCCs were making around $31,000/day more 2 weeks ago, and now they can make around $17,000/day more in the West Africa - U.S. route, than what they are making today. This explains why at least 5 vessels have made their way to West Africa, in ballast conditions no less, and upon hearing a WS77.5 on that route, other owners are also considering it a viable option. This action will no doubt push the West Africa market, while tightening the Arabian Gulf one, hopefully balancing out the oversupply issues that exist.

Bulk Carriers:

Capesizes are the ones that usually lead the market, since the volume they carry has a big impact on commodities. But this looks like it's changing, leaving a big question mark as to whether or not the Capesize vessels will survive. Akis Tsirigakis of Nasdaq-listed Star Bulk Carriers has put in an order for Capes, 2 of which will be delivered next year. He believes that economies of scale will move people to order larger vessels. On that note, Vale is expecting their first of 30 VLBCs (around 400,000dwt) in 2011. Even their competitor Rio Tinto has gone that route, and they want to make a "Brazil - China Highway" for Iron Ore (to begin with). Their argument is that these are expected to cost around $20/ton freight, whereas Capes cost close to $29/ton. This makes one wonder if the Capes will be "marginalised" out of the market.

In a world with price-driven demand promoting economies of scale, it looks like more and more owners are going "big", and proof of that is that the order book contains 166 dry cargo vessels larger than 200,000dwt, 74 of which are over 280,000dwt.

So will owners follow the markets and go "big", or will they look left when everyone is looking right?

Best Regards,

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker
http://shipping-markets.blogspot.com/

N. Cotzias Shipping

Main articles used (list not exhaustive):

- Vale Threat to Cape Owners

[Source: TradeWinds] [Date: 18/11/2010]

- Does Size Matter?

[Source: TradeWinds] [Date: 18/11/2010]

- Supertankers May Sail Empty to West Africa for Oil

[Source: Bloomberg] [Date: 18/11/2010]

Shipping Markets: Dry Cargo Market “Highlights” - Week 46 (12/11/2010 - 19/11/2010)

 Last week was “saved by the Panamaxes”, this week it was the Panamax sector that suffered the most. Increased volatility, greater fluctuations, and weekly or monthly periodicity of peaks and troughs have definitely altered the shipping markets. This was an overall negative week with all indices being red and most of the smaller indices producing long consecutive falling trends. For this coming week the BDI recorded its 17th consecutive drop, and it closed the week just like previous weeks with another strong loss of -7.3%. Capes may have found a bottom as the index mid-week marginally gained and this could be the possibility to start building on another rising period while Asian thermal Coal imports that will be needed to cover for the strong winter that is still ahead, may support the charter market showing some clear signs of new prompt and available cargoes.

Read the full Dry Bulk Market Highlights - Week 46 (12/11/2010 - 19/11/2010)!

Best Regards,

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker
http://shipping-markets.blogspot.com/

N. Cotzias Shipping

The Show Must Go On!

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS +1.85%, SB +0.1%, OCNF 0.0%>>>
NM -6.1%, FREE -9.5%, SHIP -12.29%. The 30 day chart for DRYS indicates a whopping 29.97% gain in share price. The movement was ~based on the rig contracts and that alone makes any pure dry bulk comparison about worthless. It is a new dry bulk world now with pure players becoming obsolete. The public fleets that drag anchor on this may well see the light house after colliding with the rocks. Ski admits he did not like it (mixed fleets) at first, but now concedes the owners (and their broker’s) do more research than some might acknowledge. The weeks laggards (NM,FREE,SHIP)took some lumps for sure!

The Baltic Numbers: BDI -6.4%, BCI -3.2%, BPI -12.76%, BSI -5.6%, BHSI -4.56%. The big ladies put up at least some fight, mean while the Panasisters rolled over and gave it away! The Handysize index drops below 800 for the lowest level seen in over a year. The 800 was mentioned at Boomer James insistence because of the associated bad Karma that flows through him when the most significant digit of any Baltic indice changes downward.

Dry Fixtures Thursday to Thursday: The week shows 110 fixtures comparing miserably with last weeks 158. Looks like over half the Ore Chores disappeared (wow) comparing 11 verses 28. Anyhow …Coal =9, Ore =11, Corn =1, T/C =84, Period =5. The Period fixtures also went "stealth mode" (not visible) dropping volume to single digits not seen since the 3rd week of July. The commercial distinctions were as follows. Capesize 23, Post Panamx = 0, Kmax =9, Pmax =41, Smax =24, Hmax =5, Hsize =5, Bulkers under 30K=3. Readers are reminded that Ski does not report on the commodity laden vessels fixed under T/C. That detailed maritime scoop requires readers to contact professional observers like our friends at NCSC and Commodore Research. It could be said that they maintain superior maritime domain awareness, and part-timers like myself will probably not match.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Hios, Navios Sagittarius (fix for PGSC must have failed) Genco Thunder, Navios Altair, Free Jupiter,.

Good FortunesSki

weekly is delayed

Dry Bits Weekly
will try to post tomorrow in am, dad is having bad time with chemo (only his second day) and mom is a wreck. best 2 friends I had in over 50 years.

BDI Down Again

Ahoy There!
The BDI lost about (-1%) today with the Capes being flat (yet positive) while the other 3 commercial fleets led by the Pmax (-2.78%) again lost in unison. I think this would have made the last 17 sessions of the Baltic have at least one thing in common. Bummer!

With our intention of reporting on good news when and where any can be found Ski skips to a recent Reuters story quoting BIMCO President Lorenz-Meyer “There are too many shipyards. For the next couple of years, a number of them won’t be able to survive on their own” and he went on to say “there will be consolidation”. Let us hope! The last we heard Lloyd’s Register lists over two thousand shipyards in China alone.

We do not propose the idea to our readers that China will any time soon recognize that they may be shooting themselves in the foot. What they may accomplish with the not too discreet goal of “Maritime Domination” in mind, could come at a severe cost to the very fleet they wish to operate. If they continue to over produce vessels, the values of the vessels themselves come under pressure, and yes, nobody makes much money. Catch 22

Anyhow, the thought that a bunch of these yards will fail sounds like “Good News” at this point.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Shipping Markets: QE2 Worries are Proving True

Dear Readers,

It seems that our worries about the drop in the value of the dollar are not only felt by us, but by the financial community at large. The Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke has stood by and defended his monetary stimulus, and even went so far as to implicitly accuse China that they are not doing enough to strengthen their own currency. Adding to that the fact that the Euro has strengthened for the third day in a row and that the rising commodity prices have boosted consumer price inflation in China, the financial community fears that the dollar "will become the world's 'weakest currency'". Now, whether this will be a good thing for shipping, or not, is yet to be seen by the strategies that the shipping companies will decide to enforce.

Read our original article: Shipping Markets: Quantitative Easing Round 2 - $600 billion

Best Regards,

Theo Scholiadis - S&P Broker

http://shipping-markets.blogspot.com/

N. Cotzias Shipping

Main articles used (list not exhaustive):

- Dollar to Become World's 'Weakest Currency,' Drop to 75 Yen, JP Morgan Says

[Source: Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide] [Date: 18/11/2010]

- Bernanke Defends Fed' Policy, Turns Tables on China

[Source: Bloomberg Businessweek] [Date: 19/11/2010]

- Euro Gains for Third Day; Asian Stocks, Metals Pare Weekly Drop

[Source: Bloomberg Businessweek] [Date: 19/11/2010]

BDI Sinking

Ahoy DryShippers!
Capesize turned slightly positive but the smaller vessels lost ground taking DBI with them. We are starting to hear more chatter about the breathing room (or lack of same) regarding breakeven operations. Another spanking in the works for second hand vessel valuations that are expected to decay perhaps significantly thru 12.

Do not listen to any sad shipping songs like the wreck of the ejf, especially if you happen to be palms in.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Ski's Maritime Economics Review

Ski’s Maritime Economics?
Eagle posted revenue Q3-10 at $72.8M vs. Q3-09 at $41.5M. And I quote “Net revenues of $72.8 million, an increase of 75% compared to $41.6.”. Wow, a 75% jump in revenue compared to Q3 last year. Let’s have a look at this calculation.

2010 $72,825,583 revenue net of commissions, reporting a net income of $8.2M (operating 39 vessels) divided by 62.4M shares = $0.13.
2009 $41,551,805 revenue net of commissions, reporting a net income of $0.5M (operating 25 vessels) divided by 53.4M shares = $0.01.
Revenue Q3-10 yoy is up 75.26%. They got that right and they proudly published the accomplishment.
Net Income Q3-10 yoy is up 1540%. Do you wonder why they don’t publish this unreal looking improvement?

Let’s roll this out to a year to date comparison (9MOS).
Revenue 2010 (9MOS) =$192.6M
Revenue 2009 (9MOS) =$150.5M
Net Income 2010 (9MOS) =$23.8M
Net Income 2009 (9MOS) =$31.1M
They have reported a 27% increase in ytd revenue for the first 9 months over last year, and they proudly reported it. During the same time net income has dropped ytd -23.47% and no they do not mention this number.

It does get worse!
Look at this ugly set of numbers produced when we look at Earnings per Vessel operated.

Eagle NI/VT = Net Income/ Vessel Tally (Monthly Average)

2010 9MOS Net =$23.8M or ($0.38/sh) operating 39 vessels = $67,806 per vessel.
2009 9MOS Net =$31.1M or ($0.58/sh) operating 25 vessels=$138,222 per vessel.

Eagle the company was diluted ~16.85% and operates 56% more vessels meanwhile providing shareholders a net income decrease of 23% when compared to the first 9 months of last year.

This is exactly how I will examine Safe Bulkers next time.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly Review

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS +14.92%, EGLE +2.41%, TBSI +2.30% >>>
NMM -4.00%, GNK -4.24%, SB -6.30%. The Uncle George team (DRYS) scores with its rig gigs, while a couple non capesize operators fair better than the rest. Hum? The laggard board this week is populated by some well respected players. I do better at the office football pool picking games than I do at forecasting the Dry Bits 5 Day. I did predict the “bottom feeder” syndrome would drive the Tweendecker operator to be a leader. Speaking of football. When Royce moved the company (TBSI) to Ireland, I thought of NFL owners Al Davis and fellow spank Art Modell. Both of them sporty fellows have needed to employ body guards ever since they uprooted a great deal more than just the company they moved.

The Baltics: BDI @2313 -7.29%, BCI @3612 -9.56%, BPI @2365 +2.64%,
BSI @1516 -6.87%, BHSI @833 -2.68%. Without the Pmax Girls picking up a bunch of fresh coal, this week would have been an entire bummer. The amount of ore loads does not convey the slowdown I have been reading about. +30 is cool, 28 is close.

Dry Fixtures Thursday to Thursday: Coal =3, Ore =28, HSS =1, T/C =107, Period =19, total 158.
Vessel Tally: Capes =35, PP =4, Kmax =7, Pmax =61, Smax =30, Hmax =8
Hsize =3, Bulkers =10. When we look at the ore fixtures for the last four weeks we calculate an average of 17.25 fixtures per week. The 28 ore chores listed this week is a significant rise (62%) over the mean. Keep in mind there are many fixtures listed as T/C that are hauling listed commodities, but until someone explains why this occurs, Ski reports the fixtures as recorded. This probably accounts for the sometimes large disparity reported by other market observers such as Jeffery Landsberg & John Cotzias. It is fair to say they have better access to data than this author, and the numbers they report are to be considered superior. Perhaps this disparity is why they choose to remove me from their private mailing lists. :)

Familiar Vessels: The following vessels were mentioned in the daily fixture reports. Navios Herakles, Genco Hadrian, Genco Muse, Newlead Victoria, Navios Hyperion, Genco Augustus, Zozco Shaoxing, Torm Island, Navios Titan.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Happy Birthday USMC

R 081740Z NOV 10
FM COMDT COGARD WASHINGTON DC//CCG//
TO ALCOAST
CMC WASHINGTON DC
BT
UNCLAS //N01000//
ALCOAST 547/10
COMDTNOTE 1000
SUBJ: 235TH BIRTHDAY OF THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS 1. ON BEHALF OF THE MEN AND WOMEN OF THE UNITED STATES COAST GUARD, I AM HONORED TO EXTEND BIRTHDAY GREETINGS TO THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS ON THE 235TH ANNIVERSARY OF YOUR FOUNDING.
2. ON NOVEMBER 10, 1775, THE CONTINENTAL CONGRESS PASSED A RESOLUTION CREATING TWO BATTALIONS OF MARINES TO SERVE AS LANDING FORCES FOR ITS FLEET. THIS MARKED THE BIRTH OF THE UNITED STATES MARINE CORPS. SINCE THEN, MARINES HAVE CONTINUALLY SACRIFICED TO ENSURE THE FREEDOMS WE ENJOY TODAY: FROM THE 1805 BATTLE OF DERNE WHERE MARINES SEIZED VICTORY FROM THE BARBARY PIRATES (THE FIRST SUCH ENGAGEMENT OF U.S.
FORCES OVERSEAS), TO TODAYS OPERATIONS IN THE MOUNTAINS OF AFGHANISTAN.
3. THIS SUMMER, IN THE GULF OF ADEN, ELEMENTS OF THE 15TH MARINE EXPEDITIONARY UNIT FACILITATED THE CAPTURE OF 9 SUSPECTED PIRATES, SECURING THE SAFE RESCUE OF 11 CREW MEMBERS FROM THE MOTOR VESSEL MAGELLAN STAR. MEMBERS OF COAST GUARD TACTICAL LAW ENFORCEMENT TEAM SOUTH WERE PROUD TO ASSIST, FOLLOWING IN THE SECOND WAVE TO HANDLE ENFORCEMENT ACTIVITIES AFTER THE INITIAL TAKEDOWN. TODAY, MARINES AND SUPPORTING COAST GUARDSMEN ARE PLAYING A KEY ROLE IN SECURING FREEDOM ON THE HIGH SEAS AND PROVING THEY ARE A FORMIDABLE TEAM.
4. THE MARINE CORPS HAS ALSO ADVANCED THE HUMANITARIAN ASPECTS OF U.S. OPERATIONS. FOLLOWING THIS YEARS EARTHQUAKE IN HAITI, MARINES LANDED WITHIN DAYS TO DELIVER RELIEF SUPPLIES AND PROVIDE MEDICAL AID
TO THE CITIZENS OF LEOGANE, HAITI. MARINES OF THE 22ND
EXPEDITIONARY UNIT WORKED AROUND THE CLOCK TO DELIVER 550,000 BOTTLES OF WATER, 18,000 LBS OF MEDICAL SUPPLIES, AND MORE THAN ONE MILLION DISASTER AND RELIEF RATIONS.
5. SINCE OUR OWN FOUNDING IN 1790, THE COAST GUARD HAS SERVED ALONGSIDE OUR FELLOW ARMED SERVICES ON BATTLE FRONTS AROUND THE WORLD, BUT OUR BOND WITH THE MARINES IS UNIQUE. ONE OF THE COAST GUARDS GREATEST HEROES AND ONLY MEDAL OF HONOR RECIPIENT, SIGNALMAN FIRST CLASS DOUGLAS A. MUNRO, DIED FIGHTING ALONGSIDE THE MARINES AT GUADALCANAL. TODAY, THE MARINE CORPS HONORS DOUGLAS MUNRO WITH AN ANTI-TERRORISM TRAINING FACILITY NAMED IN HIS MEMORY. HIS BRAVERY AND SACRIFICE IS OUR SHARED HERITAGE.
6. YOUR SELFLESS SERVICE IS CHERISHED BY ALL AMERICANS. YOU ARE SEMPER FI. WE WISH YOU CONTINUED SUCCESS AND ARE HONORED TO SERVE ALONGSIDE YOU. SEMPER PARATUS.
7. ADM BOB PAPP, COMMANDANT, UNITED STATES COAST GUARD, SENDS.
8. INTERNET RELEASE AUTHORIZED.

Ski's Maritime Economics Review?

Ski’s Maritime Economics Review!
Maybe when we look at some basic metrics we can see how simple earnings interpretations can be. Ask yourself what company did better and how that came to be. The more I look at earnings the less I relish the task! I will attempt to explain what I see in these figures over the weekend. Please feel free to share your opinion.

SB 2010-Q3 EPS @ .33 shares 65.8M operating 15 Vessels.
SB 2009-Q3 EPS @ .41 shares 54.5M operating 13 Vessels.

EGLE 2010-Q3 EPS @.13 shares 62.4M operating 39 Vessels
EGLE 2009-Q3 EPS @ .01 shares 61.9M operating 25 Vessels.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Goodbye to TMT

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: DRYS +13.83%, EXM +9.27%, SBLK +8.21% >>>
SB +1.42%, DSX -0.21%, SHIP -2.43%. The way things have been lately, we sometimes forget what kind of numbers DRYS can put up, albeit when it moves. This company can be a momentum traders dream. The daily volume DryShips Inc. gets on the electronic exchange (NASDAQ) makes you wonder about why others have bothered with changing exchanges. Did anyone other than Boomer James notice TBSI is not listed as a laggard this week? Possible Bottom Feeders Alert ???

The Baltic Numbers Friday to Friday:
BDI @2495 -6.83%, BCI @3994 -6.28%, BPI @2304 -4.39%, BSI @1628 -6.97%, BHSI @856 -4.57%. The end of the week Panamax fixtures helped buffer the pain as the BCI crossed below the 4000 level. The narrowing of the Cape/Panamax ratio is coming at the expense of the bigger vessel. Wishful thinking had hoped the Pmaxers would gain, not just lose less than their bigger sisters.

Dry Bulk Fixtures Thursday to Thursday: Coal =9, Ore =15, Grain =1, Bauxite =1, T/C =101, Period =14, total =141. The coal requirements from TAIPOWER helped immensely at the end of the report period. Speaking of coal, are US exports rising? Ski spotted a Capesize fix loading Baltimore to Korea and a Panamax loading Norfolk to India. The weekly fixtures were populated utilizing the following vessel types. Capes =29, PPmax =2, Kmax =7, Pmax =57, Smax =39, Hmax =5, Hsize =1, Bulkers =1. On the last day of the report 25 Pmaxes were fixed saving grace.

Familiar Vessels: These vessels where involved in fixtures during the week. STX Champion, Baltic Jaguar, Navios Lumen, Genco London.

Note: This will probably be the last weekly report we (Boomer James, Dodger and myself) post on this best in class blog. I have enjoyed coexisting with the tanker folks here at TMT, but cannot offer the amount or quality of information required to fill the void created when we lost our senior editor’s participation. The annalist community has ignored my pleas for access to their reports & data, and without that connection I have not enough to offer the daily TMT readers. I wish you all the best and of course “Good Fortunes” with your investments.
Ski

PermaBear ?

Permabear?
The obvious implication (being a permanent bear) is in itself not the worst thing Ski has been called. As an observer/commentator of the marine transportation industry I read a lot of news relating to shipping from perspectives gathered from around the globe. Did I mention reading a lot of news? Anyhow, I can see how easily Matt or any other reader could describe me as bearish on bulkers. A coy smile came to me as I recall telling all of you how I call the folks at WeberSeas the “bad news bears” because they always are smacking us with some bad news. Now I suppose the shoe is on the other foot, and it is my writing that spoils the mood. Please send me all the good news to be found and I would gladly report on it.

Long BALT why so glum?
This will be hard to answer without sounding …you know, bearish. This shipping investor has just purchased shares of BALT@~$11.00 he intends to hold for 10+ years and is projecting estimates of Peter G paying dividends based around a nickel per share for every 100 points above 2000 on the BDI. “do you believe my "nickel a share" back-of- the-envelope guess? And what are you willing to pay for that kind of
leverage you might get over a BDI of 2000? Any better, more educated
guesses? Is this a good way to think about this?”.

The 10+ year timeframe is a very long time to assume that the shipping markets will even resemble what they do today. Ten years ago China had just a few shipyards and today nobody can count them all. Ten years ago the rest of the world made more steel than China alone, btw not true today. This (shipping) is not a very predictable sector as with the stroke of an ink pen governments can change trade patterns that have enormous impact on trade. Seasoned shippers will remember when Carter signed the Soviet Grain Embargo and the unexpected results. The Russians turned to South America and had great success converting the continent into major agricultural exporters that were to feed the Russian Motherland. After a few years major exporters in SA joined hands and became Mercosur and once again their “union” was observed having drastic effects on the world trade patterns. The unexpected closures of the Suez have changed a great many investors fortunes. None of these events were calculated or projected to occur when they did, yet they all had profound effects on shipping demand.

A quick glance at the BDI 10 Halloweens ago shows 1759. To hope for 10 more years of 2000 point average levels may not be a bad base number to speculate your position because regardless of my reputation I am Bullish that shipping will survive. That is not to say I think publically held shippers will always be afloat. With the stroke of a pen all the public shippers can return to being private entities.

I wish you Good Fortunes with your position and look forward to congratulating you Ten years from now. I remain convinced that present investments in common stock of all shipping equities are better suited to attentive momentum investors when compared to traditional Longs. The fact is I continue to hold shares Long in several shippers. These were purchased when I had a different understanding of the bulkers and what moved the share price. The money I used holding these shares has not performed as well as the money I use when following the market swings. How could I recommend a true Long to any new investors?

Permashipper
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly

Top & Bottom 5 Day: SBLK +1.79% GNK +1.72% BALT +1.71% >>>
DRYS -2.95% OCNF -3.88% FREE -9.90%. If you have heard the expression “up a creek without a paddle” it reminds me of the shareholders in TBSI. The performance has been among the sectors worst laggards of late. The staggering loss in share value over the past 6 months has totaled -51.24%. Dry Bulk analytic observer Boomer James has been monitoring this company with every intention of catching the wave when/if it forms. He is a patient predator!

The Baltics: BDI@2678 -1.79%, BCI@4262 -2.53%, BPI@2410 +8.60%,
BSI@1750 -2.28%, BHSI@897 -5.57%. The last time the Handysize indice was below the 900 level was the second week of November 2009. The Panamax fleet is possibly benefitting some by the supposed option of Cape swaps. The spot rates at present suggest a charterer can rent a single Cape for $43,563 or fix two Pannies totaling $38,828. The practicality of this swap currently is questionable, but it’s worth keeping an eye on.

Dry Fixtures: The fixture activity picked back up week over week with 144 fixtures being reported Thursday to Thursday. Coal =4, Ore =12, Wheat =1, HSS =3, UREA =1, Scrap =1, T/C =96, Period =26. The vessel tally is populated with Capes =29,
PostPmax =2, Kmax =11, Pmax =61, Smax =20, Hmax =5, Hsize =9, Bulkers =7. Again for any newer readers urea is a fertilizer and hss is heavy beans soy & sorgrum.

Familiar Vessels: Navios Fantastiks, Torm Island, Free Maverick, Navios Titan,
Genco Warrior, Genco Constantine, Genco London. A noteworthy fix was reported for the F Elephant a 250,000 dwt (Very Big Lady) was chartered by Vale illustrating the miners focus on economies of scale. The havoc their intended fleet of fat boats may inflict on the trade could readily backfire on them. Should Ski remind Vale what happened to US Steel when the steelmaker tried to play shipper? Their private fleet failed and eventually became Navios. Guess who is sitting pretty in South America sharpening her claws? Fortunately the Paparazzi have yet to capture Angel strolling along a beach in Rio sporting a Ton Mile Trader Thong! In the meantime tmt dry bulk data miner Dodger scans YouTube every day with hopes of a sighting. Thinks she is a “hooters girl” if he has ever seen one.
Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Oct.17th 2010

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: DSX @13.98 +5.27%, NMM @18.48 +3.07%, NM @5.95 +0.68% >>> SHIP @1.21 -2.42%, GNK @16.45 -2.49%, TBSI @4.95 -4.07%.

The Baltic Numbers: BDI@2762 +2.44%, BCI@4345 +6.59%, BPI@2254 -6.20%,
BSI@1858 -1.90%, BHSI@994 -3.77%.

Dry Fixtures Thursday – Thursday: Corn =1, HSS =2, Ore =22, Coal =3,
T/C =87, Period =14, Total = 128.

Vessel Tally: Capes =33, PostPmax =1, Kmax =2, Pmax =41, Smax =41, Hmax =6, Hsize =4, Total 128.

Familiar Vessels
Genco Success, Genco Cavalier, Genco Commodus, Navios Stellar, Torm Island, Genco Tiberius, Navios Anteres, Navios Vector.

The amount of ore fixtures for the last 4 weeks average out at 14 fixtures per week. This week saw 22 Ore Chores fixing for a 57% improvement in volume. The Big Ladies (Capes) closed with 33 of the 128 fixtures, losing some volume compared to last week’s cape fixture count of 38. The period activity was diminished with only 14 vessels taking that type of “secure” employment.

A Ski note; The folks who follow dry bulk shipping will excuse me for not harping too much about the blasted order book! The documentation and analysis of the fleet size has been a subject we all have privately digested with assistance from the gifted Authors at Cotzias, WeberSeas, TradeWinds, and the like. It is not a surprise that many private investors (who once loved shipping) have long since departed from investments in the sector. A quote from Martin Stopford that shipping may be in for up to 30 years of bad times had the most profound impression on this observer. I hold that investments in dry bulk shipping equities are currently more suited to attentive momentum investors compared to traditional longs of a year or more. Now more than ever The Song Remains the Same as Led Zepplin once told us.
Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits Weekly Oct 2nd 2010

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  DRYS @4.78 +15.88%, SHIP @1.11 +10.67%, NM @5.88 +6.72% >>> DSX @12.68 -0.16%, BALT @11.17 -1.85%, TBSI @5.30 -2.39%. Uncle George found some work for a yet to be delivered Dryships drillship, plus got HSH Nordbank to amend covenants enough to be in “full compliance as amended” with the original facility.  The GE faithful were never in doubt about either annoyance!  Meantime Dale Ploughman from Seanergy  fixed 3 handysize ladies on some period employment.  A Skipoint is awarded here for Dale’s effort, considering how he is rebuilding the corporate structure of Seanergy to mirror Angel’s model of Navios Maritime Holdings.   btw SHIP now controls ~1.3M dwt average age 12.8.  Something is Rotten in Denmark!  At the other end of the 5 day review we have TBSI telling the world they are not going to pay anything but interest on their loans for the next 45 days.  The Skipper (JR) aka “Junior” went on to say during this time he is “confident” the banks will let him rewrite the deals.  

Dude… What is different now?

The Baltic: 

BDI     @2452 +0.3%

BCI     @3419 +9.54%

BPI     @2412 -11.29%        

BSI      @1843 -1.91%

BHSI   @1038 -2.89%

For every point gained in the Cape segment, the Panasister’s collectively lost and some.

Dry Fixtures:  Thursday to Thursday!  PLS don’t ask.

HSS =3, Ore =16, Coal =3, T/C =88, Period =13, Total =126

Vessel tally as follows.

Capes =21, PPmax =2, Kmax =5, Pmax =44, Smax =37, Hmax =8, Hsize =9.  The volume of period activity has been low for 3 weeks running now.  We expected coal to taper off some but down by 62% volume compared to last week? Bummer

Familiar Vessel’s:

There are a lot of them in the fixture reports this week.  Torm Saltholm, Genco London, Navios Star, Navios Hyperion, Star Manx, Navios Achilles, Genco Wisdom, Star Sigma, Navios Hios, Navios Kypros, Genco Leader. 

Good Fortunes

Ski

Dry Bit

Ahoy There!

It was not my intention to launch my own blog tonight.  My efforts really were focused on contributing to the new shipping blog on Cotzias, yet one click led to another and “Dry Bits” the blog was created.  I have already figured out how to post and delete a post on this new blog of mine, but still can’t post the Cotzias blog.  That might be the way it works but we will mess around with this anyhow.

Good Fortunes

Ski

Dry Bulk Weekly Review

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  DSX 12.70 +4.87%, GNK 15.74 +2.74%, BALT 11.38 +2.61% >>>NM 5.51 -1.25%, SBLK 2.87 -1.37%, SHIP .985 -7.08%.  It came as a surprise that (SHIP) was our laggard this week considering they had announced the completion of two ongoing acquisitions.  In another twist of logic, the newbie spinoff from Peter G (BALT) whose vessels work the spot market is among the leaders as rates decay!

The Baltic Numbers week/week:

BDI @ 2444 - 8.59%

BCI @ 3121 -10.34%

BPI @ 2719 - 7.13%

BSI @ 1879 - 6.61%

BHSI @ 1069 -1.47%

Dry Fixtures:  Coal =8, Ore =15, T/C =83, Period =12, HSS =3 Total = 121.  For the millions of readers at home that wondered what in the heck is an “HSS Fixture” Ski reports heavy beans, soy and sorghum.   Cool beans!

Vessel Tally:  This is what type of vessel populated the week’s 121 reported fixtures. 

Capesize 120,000 > 300,000  =22        P Panamax 90,000 > 120,000 =5  Kamsarmax 80,000 > 85,000 =2

Panamax 60,000 > 80,000     =52          Supramax 50,000 > 60,000   =28  Handymax 40,000 > 50,000   =6

Handysize 30,000 > 40,000   = 2          Bulkers less than 30,000       =4    Total                              =121.

Familiar Vessels: 

The 2002 Supramax Navios Vector fixes Shanghai>China via indo @19,500/day CNR.  Another Supramax the Genco Britanny was taken period by Oldendorff  3-5 MOS  $21,000/day.  Inking a capesize relet the Navios Melodia is fixed to haul ore from Dampier over to Qingdao for Nobel Charters @10.25/ton.  One of the” tiny ladies” the bulker Free Hero just came off charter now fixed Tulza>India $19,500/day (an improvement of $1,500 daily over the last hire) by CNR.

Good Fortunes

Ski