Dry Bits Week 52

Ahoy There!

Please Pardon the relaxed format.  We are not preparing a normal weekly report due to insufficient data.  The alert on TOPS has been rescinded after we hear of 24M loss on sale of yet another bulker.  They (TOPS) may be down to owning only 1 more bulker (Cape) and 6 product tankers.   

	GLBS @3.31 (+6.43%), PRGN @0.64 (+3.23%), GPRT @0.67 (+1.21%) >>>
	EXM @1.45 (-11.04%), FREE @0.43 (-14%), NEWL @0.46 (-29.23%).

The composition of this week’s Top & Bottom 5 Day is in itself unsettling.  Four of the six companies have share prices in the pennies.  A look at the future of EXM has Boomer James betting they (EXM) become a penny stock during 2012. 

I did see a few fixtures and noticed some particulars like the Navios Pollux will be steaming a transatlantic round on T/C for $25,500 daily.  The Japanese have fixed coal from both USG and Brazil putting on some decent ton miles.   

Good Fortunes 

Dry Bits

Ahoy There!  

According to China Economic Net the number of large scale mines in China has climbed to 4,684, while overall the number of mines has decreased from 127,000 (in 2005) to 113,000 in 2010.  The number of coal mines has decreased from 18,000 to 13,000while coal production has risen from 2.2 billion tons to 3.2 billion tons.  We have no idea how many mines operate here in the United States but somehow doubt we have anywhere near One Hundred Thirteen Thousand.  That also applies for coal mines numbering far less than Thirteen Thousand coal mines reported in China…and the Chinese are net importers! 

The business of tariffs and how they affect shipping are our primary focus as we examine an article from Reuters wherein the readers are told about the Moroccan Government slapping a 135% tariff on soft wheat coupled with 80% applied to durum.  The local wheat produced is of such poor quality that it must be mixed with an increasing amount of imported grain just to yield a product that will bake.  Who would like to guess if the tariff helps the poor local farmer, or the wealthy and privileged leaders?  Anyhow it caught my eye as being expensive and probably does the people a disservice.   

China has received the first of Vale's giant iron ore vessels:  The last Dry Bit today also comes from our Buds at Reuters and the story is about China, the Chinese Shipowners Association (CSA), and Vale’s super sized (VLCC) vessel the Berge Everest.  It has been confirmed that the vessel’s cargo of iron ore is being unloaded at Dalian China.  This is a monumental event that underscores a few ideas.  First the idea that an organization that represents over 80% of all Chinese Shipowners would be trumped by the steel industry should give us an idea of how that food chain plays out.  The political power clearly goes to the Mills when it comes to Beijing and for good reason.  When we look at the many jobs created and sustained through the steel industry and the quality of life for those numerous employees, it is a no brainer that a handful of private shipowners (even though wealthy) would be so easily ignored.  The TonMileTrader resident dry bulk analyst Boomer James  has a different take on these events.   "China has allowed Vale (at least temporarily) access to its ports in part because of the discord with MERCOSUR.  China believes this will gain them leverage as they try to overcome some protectionist sentiments harbored by some of the member countries.  The folks from the trade group tell us that South Americans do not want cheap Chinese goods to flood their markets.  Boomer says if the Chinese feel offended after discussing this with MERCOSUR they will certainly pull the VLCC welcome back off the table." 

Good Fortunes

Ski@TonMileTrader

Week # 51

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  SHIP 2.36 (+6.79%) GLBS 3.11 (+3.67%) NM 3.67 (+3.38%) >> EGLE 0.985 (-7.94%) SBLK 0.91 (-9.00%) TOPS 1.99 (-9.13%).  The laggards provide us a T&B5Day Alert courtesy of TOPS posting consecutive losing performances. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1738 (-7.94%), BCI 3287 (-7.98%), BPI 1645 (-7.32%), BSI 1176 (-1.42%), BHSI 577 (-1.87%).    The number of fixtures drops during the holidays and that generally translates into bad news over at the Baltic.  The BHSI is on a course to sink down too historical lows.  I think 268 is the lowest the BHSI ever recorded.

The Fixtures:  Ore =16, Coal =7, T/C =55, Period =7, Grain =1, Bauxite =1, total =87.  The ore chores tally comes in way below healthy.  The coal volume (although low) is doable thanks to Taipower returning to the market.  The period plays dropped off significantly (4 wk avg.= 14.5) with the market makers on Holiday. 

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  Klara Selmer    1 Year            $18,500  vs. $30,926.
Pmax:  Great Rich      4-6 MOS          $13,000 vs. $14,187.
Smax:  none reported                                        vs. $12,368.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =17, P/P =2, Kmax =8, Pmax =40, Smax =11, Hmax =3, Hsize =4, Bulker =2, total =87.  The following Familiar Vessels populated the fixture reports; Kronos, Star Lily, Danae, Athos. 

Ski Notes:  The Island People (TBSI) came to an agreement with some of its lenders that saw four of its new vessels snatched (like repossessed) and value of its existing shares eliminated “The terms of these agreements do not provide for any remaining value in the outstanding ordinary or preferred shares of TBS.” yet… I watched the market trade up the shares on the NASDAQ.  The shares opened at 22 cents and gained 68% trading briefly at 37 cents a share.   Hello People…

A Dry Bit from BRS
“Not surprisingly, the average age of ship scrapped in 2011 is significantly lower than in 2009: at 33 years for the Handysizes, 30 years for the Panamaxes and Supramaxes, and a striking 27 years for the Capesizes.”
Good Fortunes
Ski

Raw Data

Dec (19 - 23) 2011		Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Totals
Ore		3	2	3	3	5	16
Coal		1	1	3	1	1	7
T/C		14	7	8	14	12	55
Period		2	2	2	1	0	7
Grain		0	1	0	0	0	1
Bauxite		0	0	1	0	0	1
							87
VLOC		0	0	0	0	0	0
Capes		4	2	3	3	5	17
P/P		0	0	1	0	1	2
Kmax		1	1	2	4	0	8
Pmax		9	8	4	10	9	40
Smax		5	1	3	0	2	11
Hmax		1	0	2	0	0	3
Hsize		0	1	2	1	0	4
Bulkers		0	0	0	1	1	2
Total		20	13	17	19	18	87
			Best Done Period vs. spot
Capes	Klara Selmer		1 Year		$18,500	vs.	$30,926
Pmax	Great Rich		4-6 MOS		$13,000	vs.	$14,187
Smax	none reported					vs.	$12,368
		Good Fortunes

Shippers that have split

The splits

BHO   B & H Ocean                          Nov. 2011       delist

ESEA  Euroseas                                  Oct. 2006        1:3

NEWL            Newlead Holdings      Aug. 2010       1:12

TOPS  Top Ships                                Jun.  2011        1:10

FREE  Freeseas                                   Oct.  2010       1:5

SHIP   Seanergy                                 Jun.  2011        1:15

SBLK  Star Bulk                                   12/ 2008  1026:1000

KEX    Kirby Corp                              Jun. 2006         2:1

ISH     International Ship                   Nov. 1995       5:4

Dry Bits Week #50

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  ISH $19.79 (+4.32%), DSX $7.99 (+0.25%) >>> TOPS $2.19 (-15.77%), FREE $0.50 (-18.03%), GLBS $3.00 (-28.91%).   It is somewhat surprising that DSX holds a leader slot this week considering the news about the counterparty lack of payment.  A look at the laggards and we relate the drubbing FREE took on Wall Street with having a vessel arrested over a $93,500 claim.  The spanking handed out to GLBS remains a mystery at this point but the company dropped almost 30% in value in 5 days

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1888 (-1.77%), BCI 3572 (-3.38%), BPI 1775 (+3.62%), BSI 1193 (-3.01%), BHSI 588 (-2.33%).  For those keeping score the last day the handysize index closed with a gain was Oct 17^th 2011, so for the last 60 trading sessions everyday has been a bad day if you were fixing a handy... 

The Fixtures:  Ore =16, Coal =1, T/C =83, Period =19, Grain =1, total =120.  The ore chores come in low for the second straight week dropping the 4 week average down to 19.5 fixtures per week.  (We call 25 decent)  The single coal fixture is a Hampton Roads load of United States steam coal headed for Brindisi Italy, chartered by ENEL.  A Major Coal Smoker is located in Brindisi and it is the largest electricity producer in Italy. 

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =21, P/P =2, Kmax =9, Pmax =57, Smax =28, Hmax =1, Hsize =0, Bulker =2, total =120. 

Ski Notes:  The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports; Genco Cavalier, Navios Hyperion, Dione, Navios Astra, Navios Fantastiks, Genco Vigour.  I am not sure of all the particulars but DSX is in the process of trying to get paid 4.8M they are owed for hire of the MV Houston.  The delinquent counterparty Shagang Shipping Company is a subsidy ofJiangsu Shagang Group the largest private steel mill in China.

Good Fortunes

Ski

Week 49

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  GLBS 4.22 (+12.53%) DSX 7.97 (+4.86%) SFL 10.87 (+4.31%) >>>
PRGN 0.70 (-6.66%) SHIP 2.56 (-6.90%) EGLE 1.08 (-8.47%). 
No  active T&B alerts.  Paragon slapped  with delisting notice, PRGN Reverse split within 6 Months.

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1922 (+3.00%) BCI 3697 (+8.44%) BPI 1713 (+0.70%) BSI 1230 (-7.86%) BHSI 602 (-3.37%).   The BHSI is at its lowest value in over a year!

The Fixtures:  Ore =17, Coal =3, T/C =91, Period =12, Bauxite =1, total =124. 

                        Best Done Period vs. Spot Rate

Capes:  Alpha Cozmos     5-7 MOS   $20,750  vs.  $31,118.

Pmax:  Xin Shun             70 Days      $21,500  vs.  $13,472.

Smax:  Equinox Dream   4-6 MOS   $11,300   vs.  $13,366.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =4, Kmax =12, Pmax =44, Smax =26, Hmax =3, Hsize =3, Bulkers =3, Total =124.

Ski Notes:  The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports, Baltic Bear, Nord Hercules, Great Eagle, Genco Leader, Yasa Eagle, Ocean Emperor.  For the folks paying close attention to TORM the company has chartered a Pannie on T/C for $15,500 daily running some ore out of Tubarao.

Good Fortunes

VLOC Taking On Water

 Ahoy There!

RIO DE JANEIRO/SEOUL, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The world's largest iron-ore vessel is disabled and could sink in a port where Brazil's Vale, the world top producer, loads about 10 percent of global supplies of the commodity, shipping agents and the ship's operator said.

The Vale Beijing, a 361-metre-long vessel that can carry 400,000 tonnes of iron ore, has a leak in a ballast tank, operator STX Pan Ocean said. Shipping agents told Reuters the vessel had ruptured its hull.

The incident at Ponta da Madeira Port near Sao Luis, Brazil, is another blow to a multi-billion-dollar plan by Vale to develop a fleet of 35 giant iron ore carriers to compete with Australian producers for market share in China, the world's largest iron-ore consumer.

The first in the 400,000 deadweight-tonne class of vessels was blocked by Chinese authorities from docking in China earlier this year.

"Sinking is the worst-case scenario," said a spokesman for STX Group, the parent of STX Pan Ocean. "But we believe that the situation is not that serious."

The Vale Beijing is carrying enough iron ore to make the steel for nearly 3-1/2 Golden Gate bridges. If it sank or faced more problems, it could delay operations at the port, which is responsible for nearly 10 percent of the world's 1 billion tonnes of annual sea-borne iron-ore shipments.

The Panamanian-registered ship, which had been due to depart on Sunday bound for Rotterdam, is expected to be moved to an anchorage area for repairs, Vale said in a statement late on Monday.

SOURCE: Reuters

Week 48

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  NM @3.90 (+21.49%), EXM @1.97 (+19.39%), NMM @15.42 (+14.22%), >>>  SBLK @1.11 (-9.01%), NEWL @0.65 (-9.72%), FREE @0.61 (-21.79%).  The market was moved for Angels holding company Navios Maritime by the headline “JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage of the stock with an overweight rating.”.  It should also be noted that the gentleman on TV (Mr. Cramer) favorably mentioned the 3$ stock. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1866 (+3.26%), BCI 3409 (+11.80), BPI 1701 (-5.18%),

BSI 1335 (-3.26%), BHSI 623 (-2.50%).  The cape index carries the Baltic as all three smaller classes lose steam.  This is surprising with the grain activity being reported in the USG at healthy volumes, I had expected the Handies and Supras to be performing better.  Well I was wrong and that bodes very badly for some cash strapped owners.

The Fixtures:  Ore =21, Coal =6, T/C =66, Period =11, Grain =1, total =105.  The “Ore chores” volume slipped 12% from 4 week average, and coal fell off 45% in the absence of major smokers like TaiPower.  The T/C numbers come in soft and no capes found period employment leaving us real fortunate that the week was a positive for the equities.

                        Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates

Capes:  none reported                                           $29,010.

Pmax:  Capt. Evangelos  4-6 MOS  $23,000  vs.  $13,979.

Smax:  Dumun                 3-5 MOS $13,750   vs.  $14,408.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =28, P/P =3, Kmax =10, Pmax =38, Smax =18,

Hmax =1, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, total =105.  I just saw an article TMT Friend Ohms Law had mentioned

Ski Notes:  The following “familiar” vessels populated the fixture reports; Genco Surprise, Thetis, Calipso, New Horizon, Saldanha, Poseidon, Navios Titan.  It should be noted we are respectful of all investment styles.  It remains our opinion that shipping equities are not well suited for typical long investors and investments in the sector should be made by attentive momentum traders. 

Good Fortunes

Ski 

Dry Bit

Ahoy There!

USDA Grain Report parts of;

“Shipments of wheat to Africa and Mexico increased as did soybean shipments to Japan and the Netherlands. Mississippi River and Texas Gulf inspections increased 9 and 90 percent, respectively, due mainly to more shipments of wheat from each region. However, grain inspections dropped 45 percent in the Pacific Northwest.”

“During the week ending November 24, 35 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 30 percent from last year. Fifty-eight vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 8 percent less than the same period last year.”

“During the week ending November 25, ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $57 per metric ton (mt), 1 percent less than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $31 per mt—3 percent less than the previous week.”

“Ocean rates for wheat shipped from the PNW to Japan increased just over 1 percent from the second quarter but dropped 10 percent from last year due to the slowdown in grain shipping (GTR, dated 11/10/11). Ocean rates for wheat shipped from the Gulf to Japan decreased slightly from the second quarter, and dropped 14 percent from last year due primarily to excess vessel supply and the slowdown in shipping of U.S. grain.”

”The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. On average, this includes nearly 45 percent of U.S.-grown wheat, 35 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans, and 20 percent of the U.S.-grown corn. Approximately 61 percent of the U.S. export grain shipments departed through the U.S. Gulf region in 2010.”

“In 2010, containers were used to transport 5 percent of total U.S. waterborne grain exports, and 7 percent of U.S. grain expo rts to Asia. Asia is the top destination for U.S. containerized grain exports—94 percent in 2010.”

Good Fortunes

Dry Bulk Equties Covered

BALT Baltic Trading Co 2 Capes 4 Smax 3 Hsize . DRYS Dryships Inc. 9 Capes 25 Pmax 2 Smax 4 Tankers 6 Drill rigs . DSX Diana Shipping Co. 8 Capes 1 P/Pmax 16 Pmax 14% Diana Containerships . EGLE Eagle Bulk Shipping Co. 40 Smax 2 Hmax . ESEA Euroseas LTD 4 Pmax 1 Hmax 1 M/P 10 Containerships . EXM Excel Maritime Carriers LTD 7 Capes 14 Kmax 21 Pmax 2 Smax 3 Hsize . FREE FreeSeas Inc. 2 Hmax 6 Hsize . GLBS Globus Maritime Limited 1 Kmax 2 Pmax 4 Smax . GNK Genco Shipping & Trading Lim. 9 Capes 8 Pmax 17 Smax 6 Hmax 13 Hsize . GPRT Goldenport Holdings Inc. 1 Cape 1 P/Pmax 11 Smax 1 Hmax 12 Containerships London . ISH International Shipholding Corp Barges ro-ros Specialty ships . NEWL Newlead Holdings LTD 5 Capes 1 P/Pmax 2 Kmax 4 Pmax 1 Hsize 6 Product Tankers . NM Navios Maritime Holding Co. 10 Capes 3 Pmax 14 Smax NMM NMAU NSALU Navios Tanker Management Co. . NMM Navios Maritime Partners 6 Capes 9 Pmax 1 Smax Long Term Chartered In Fleet 2 Pmax from NM . PRGN Paragon Shipping Inc. 8 Pmax 2 Smax 2 Container newbuilds in work . SB Safe Bulkers 1 Cape 9 P/Pmax 3 Kmax 4 Pmax . SBLK Star Bulk Carriers Corp 7 Capes 8 Smax . SFL Ship Finance International 6 OBO 7 Hsize 5 Smax Tankers Container Offshore . SHIP Seanergy Maritime Holdings Inc. 4 Capes 3 Pmax 2 Smax 1 Hmax 10 Hsize several hsize vessels are actually bulkers . TOPS Top Ships Inc. 2 Capes 6 Product Tankers . VLCCF Knightsbridge Tankers LTD 2 Capes 4 VLCC Tankers . ish is not really a bulker but they are cool

Grain Report Clips

Grain report clips During the week ending November 17, 38 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 33 percent from this week last year. Forty-eight vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 9 percent less than the same period last year. During the week ending November 18, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $57.50 per metric ton (mt), 2 percent more than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $32 per mt—3 percent more than the previous week. During March rail deliveries peaked for the year at 1,706 cars per week when flood conditions disrupted river operations and barge rates were at their highest. For this month, rail deliveries to Mississippi River ports are averaging 380 cars per week compared to last November’s average of 1,775 cars per week. For the remainder of the marketing year, a robust barge market is not likely; USDA projects U.S. corn exports at 1.6 billion bushels, a 9 year low.

Union Pacific Railroad (UP) has delayed opening its new grain transloading terminal at Yermo, CA, until late 2011 or early 2012. In their announcement, UP said the delay is because of a declining grain export market—grain traffic for all U.S. major railroads was down 14 percent in October compared to October 2010.

Dry Bits Week 47

Top & Bottom 5 Day: No Gainers >>> GNK 6.93 (-27.59%) EXM 1.65 (-30.38%) TBSI 0.40 (-34.43%). Well now, not a gainer in the entire sector… Do you ever ask yourself how in the heck you got involved in shipping? For the record EXM is being alerted iaw our 5Day criteria as a potential long trade. This is a scary trade if you agree with Boomer James. It is his belief the stock will go under a dollar within 6 months. TMT readers will recall last week we pointed out how DRYS got smacked a bit. Well they didn’t make our leader board but keep them in mind. The stock has fallen ~25 % since November 11th.

 The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1807 (-1.53%), BCI 3049 (-3.21%), BPI 1794 (+1.87%), BSI 1380 (+4.23%), BHSI 639 (-5.33%). The handies are getting spanked, and things are worse than I thought for the operators. We will be getting more informed on the subject and will report back to the readership.

 The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =11, T/C =68, Period =16, Scrap =1, HSS =1, Grain =1, total =122. btw I will soon be publishing a separate report dedicated to fixture analysis for those who may be interested. We had a strong week thanks to one of our favorite smokers Taipower. Again we see Midwest Soy Beans heading to China via the Panama. They (Chinese) are worried about becoming too dependent on our corn, but soy is a different product you see…
Best done period vs. spot rates;
Capes: Navios Koyo 1 Year $17,900 vs. $26,786
Pmax: Spar Neptun 4-6 MOS $22,000 vs. $14,635
Smax: Alitis 90-149 Days $12,500 vs. $14,491

 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =32, P/P =8, Kmax =7, Pmax =51, Smax =17, Hmax =1, Hsize =4, Bulkers =2, total =122.

 Ski Notes: The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports; Star Kappa, Navios Koyo, Thetis, Alitis. The lenders for TBSI are demanding the common shares go all the way to zero. “ even though our lenders have made it clear that they would not agree to a restructuring in which any value were attributed to our common equity.” Diana Shipping Inc. (NYSE: DSX) had its price target lowered by analysts at Jefferies to $11.00. Really, Jefferies thinks Diana will see 11 in a year. Really!
Good Fortunes 
Ski

Dry Bits Week 46

Top & Bottom 5 Day: NM 3.77 (+3.57%) SB 6.78 (+1.34%) >>> DRYS 2.54 (-11.80%) EXM 2.07 (-12.65%) TBSI 0.45 (-26.22%). The tweendeckers miss the street and paid. The losers outnumber winners 2 to 1 and averaged about a 10% loss for the week. The fact that DRYS and EXM got slammed a bit more should be noted. The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1895 (+3.26%), BCI 3235 (+2.69%), BPI 1831 (+3.97%), BSI 1381 (+4.30%), BHSI 661 (-2.07%). The larger vessel classes gained some juice with the noted exception of the smaller (normally mellow) handies. The week ended with the Baltic’s rising while equities retreated. Let us hope for a bit more of the same to extend the divergence. $$$$ in the making ya know! The Fixtures: Ore =27, Coal =6, T/C =82, Period =10, Bauxite =1, HSS =1, total =127. The ore chores doubled from last week and coal gained a fixture equaling the four week average of 6 coal fixtures. The T/C and Period volume improved as well, and noteworthy is China taking soy from the gulf this week while last week they took it from the mouth of the recently dredged Columbia River out west. Best done Period Vs. Spot Rates Capes: Great Song 4-6 MOS $19,000 vs. $28,795 Pmax: Nirefs 13-16 MOS $12,250 vs. $14,441 Smax: C S Brave 12 MOS $12,200 vs. $14,309 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =34, P/P =4, Kmax =12, Pmax =36, Smax =32, Hmax =2, Hsize =3, Bulk =4, total =127 Ski Notes: The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports. Navios Vector, Torm Ocean, Navios Orion, Navios Ulysses, Nirefs. The folks who are closely observing Diana Shipping will recognize the Nirefs as the vessel being chartered by Morgan Stanley for the next year. Good Fortunes Ski

Week 45

Top & Bottom 5 Day: FREE .907 (+19.34%) GNK 9.57 (+11.02%) DRYS 2.88 (+4.34%) >>>> NMM 14.95 (-4.22%) SHIP 3.02 (-7.07%) TBSI .61 (-16.43%). The gain FREE racked up did not add up, and we saw no reason for the spike Thursday. Peter Pan’s Genco reported the same day and was rewarded by the street. That should make his new Canadian buds happy. DRYS pops onto the leader board for the second time in 2 weeks. Does George have something going on? The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1835 (+2.85%), BCI 3150 (+12.98%), BPI 1761 (-4.08%), BSI 1324 (-7.08%), BHSI 675 (-7.28%). The almost 13% rise for the BCI tells me in spite of the large amount of capesize deliveries we read so much about the owners are still able from time to time to turn the table on the charterers. I will look at the fixtures a lot closer to identify how it may have occurred. Prompt list? The Fixtures: Ore =13, Coal =5, T/C =75, Period =7, total =100. The ore chores dropped by almost half week over week and the big coal burners were absent from the market. All in all every fixture class was off last weeks healthier numbers. Best done period vs. spot rates Capes: none reported vs. $27,197 Pmax: Yasa Team 4-6 MOS $12,500 vs. $14,078 Smax: Simge Akos 12 MOS $12,500 vs. $14,228 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =25, P/P =3, Kmax =8, Pmax =36, Smax =22, Hmax =2, Hsize =0, Bulkers =4, total =100. We noticed the big ladies (Capesize) have not inked a period fixture for two weeks in a row. That is not normal. The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports, Torm Anholt, Navios Arc, Akili, Navios Melodia, Navios Pollux. Good Fortunes Ski

Dry Bits Week 44

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @0.73 +4.28%, SHIP @ 3.25 +2.20% >>>

EGLE @1.45 -13.69%, EXM @2.46 -16.89%, PRGN @0.92 -17.11.

The equities mostly followed the Baltic decay with the exception of our

favorite penny stocks TBSI and SHIP. They should have went down as well,

but forces greater than logic intervened.

The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1784 (-11.59%), BCI 2788 (-14.84%), BPI 1836 (-5.31%), BSI 1425 (-7.76%), BHSI 728 (-7.37%). The charterers managed to satisfy significant demand while pressing rates lower. The owners are again lining the mahogany calling for brandies by the double.

The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =7, T/C =92, Period =5, Manganese =1, HSS =1, total fixture count =130. The ore chores were decent, coal was ok, the t/c fixtures easily blew past the 4 week avg. of 77.75 fixes. The missing ingredient is the dismal period numbers with only 5 being inked. What does this tell us…nothing yet, but we will be watching for a pattern.

Best Done vs. spot rates

Capes: none reported $23,374

Pmax: Naias 4-6 MOS $14,000 vs. $15,521

Smax: Kang Shen 3-5 MOS $13,750 vs. $16,009

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =43,

Smax =35, Hmax =7, Hsize =1, Bulker =1, total =130.

The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports. Star Harmony.

Ski Notes: Without going into too much detail, it has been decided that

we will not post any of Boomer James actual trades. Our legal advisors

have instead suggested we could simply post a practice account that

coincidentally may shadow Boomers trades.

Natasha has dropped FreeSeas from her universe of coverage over at Cantor. I would press her as to why. Uncle George finally removed OCNF from TMT coverage. If we get to picky about our coverage criteria we soon will be talking about something besides shipping. None of these companies are shinning examples of good corporate governance with outstanding investor relationships. None.

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @0.73 +4.28%, SHIP @ 3.25 +2.20% >>> EGLE @1.45 -13.69%, EXM @2.46 -16.89%, PRGN @0.92 -17.11. The equities mostly followed the Baltic decay with the exception of our favorite penny stocks TBSI and SHIP. They should have went down as well, but forces greater than logic intervened. The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1784 (-11.59%), BCI 2788 (-14.84%), BPI 1836 (-5.31%), BSI 1425 (-7.76%), BHSI 728 (-7.37%). The charterers managed to satisfy significant demand while pressing rates lower. The owners are again lining the mahogany calling for brandies by the double. The Fixtures: Ore =24, Coal =7, T/C =92, Period =5, Manganese =1, HSS =1, total fixture count =130. The ore chores were decent, coal was ok, the t/c fixtures easily blew past the 4 week avg. of 77.75 fixes. The missing ingredient is the dismal period numbers with only 5 being inked. What does this tell us…nothing yet, but we will be watching for a pattern. Best Done vs. spot rates Capes: none reported $23,374 Pmax: Naias 4-6 MOS $14,000 vs. $15,521 Smax: Kang Shen 3-5 MOS $13,750 vs. $16,009 The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =43, Smax =35, Hmax =7, Hsize =1, Bulker =1, total =130. The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports. Star Harmony. Ski Notes: Without going into too much detail, it has been decided that we will not post any of Boomer James actual trades. Our legal advisors have instead suggested we could simply post a practice account that coincidentally may shadow Boomers trades. Natasha has dropped FreeSeas from her universe of coverage over at Cantor. I would press her as to why. Uncle George finally removed OCNF from TMT coverage. If we get to picky about our coverage criteria we soon will be talking about something besides shipping. None of these companies are shinning examples of good corporate governance with outstanding investor relationships. None.

Dry Bits Week 24

Top & Bottom 5 Day: TBSI @1.14 +23.91%, GNK @7.02 +7.33%, DRYS @3.94 +4.78% >>> OCNF @0.32 -8.57%, EGLE @2.31 -9.05%, FREE @2.00 -10.71%. The tweendecker operator TBSI is way out in front of the leaders pushing for almost a 25% gain in 5 days. The folks waiting for Genco too hit a bottom might consider this an alert. It was no secret Boomer James has been sniffing out Peter Pan’s equity, waiting to join any overcorrection swing. It is sad to see Eagle listed among the laggards with such a fine fleet… Think of the implications!

The Baltics: BDI 1423 +0.35%, BCI 1824 +5.12%, BPI 1914 -0.67%, BSI 1319 -2.15%, BHSI 734 -2.0%. The BDI averages out the four sub-indices for a flat week. The Capes needed a kick in the rear as many vessels could not run at
the present spot rate without losing money.

The Fixtures: Ore =11, Coal =2, T/C =59, Period =7, total = 79. We had only four days of fixture reports come in and still we say this was the weakest demand since 2nd week of Jan. The market is not showing us any good indicators at this time.
Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates
Capes: Anagel Explorer trading 9 – 11 MOS @$10,250 vs. $8842
Pmax: Dora Schulte trading 3 – 5 MOS @ $22,500 vs. $15,867
Smax: None Reported

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =18, PP =3, Kmax =9, Pmax =26, Smax =20, Hmax =2, Hsize =0, Bulk =1.

Ski Notes: The Akili was the only familiar vessel fixed in the shortened week. I have been doing a lot of work on the fixture database and can say we might be around 10% complete. It will make my job easier. I have some good stuff coming down the line if we can overcome some time management issues.

Good Fortunes

Really

The U.S. Navy tried to get permission to board a North Korean merchant vessel that it suspected was carrying illicit weapon technology in the South China Sea, the Pentagon confirmed Monday.

The Navy reported that the North Korean Master said “No” when they asked his permission to board.

As a Former Marine I will try to say this without hurting any squid’s feelings. When you are asking the Master about boarding his ship try to remember the question is only small talk, and you are going to send Marines or Seals over to scope things out regardless. Every weapon that gets through will someday be used against us!

Dry Bits Week 23

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: GLBS @9.94 +10.44% >>> OCNF @0.34 -12.82%, PRGN @2.03 -14.70%, TBSI @0.91 -23.52%. The equities had 15 Losers and the 1 Gainer telling us how bad the week was. The laggards really taking hits this week as share prices fell dramatically. I did not really see any reason for Globus to have gone up, yet it rose over 10% on a disastrous week. The bottom feeders trading TBSI had the rug pulled out from under them dropping huge. Paragon might be done being “corrected” as it has lost 32% of its value in the last 30 days. That is if you think PRGN was fairly price 1 month ago.
The Baltics: BDI 1418 -4.76%, BCI 1735 -10.52%, BPI 1927 +7.59%, BSI 1348 -6.06%, BHSI 749 -2.09%. The big ladies cannot hold the recent gains and drop back under ops cost. The panasisters had the only good week as all the other indices fell, even though the supras had some exceptionally nice fixtures for the mix.
The Fixtures: Ore =18, Coal =6, T/C =79, Period =15, Sugar =1, Bauxite =1, total =120. The ore chores exactly matched last week, meanwhile coal runs improved to almost healthy volume. All in all the demand simply is not at a level we call normal. This time of year we normally run around 150 fixtures per week, so although this week’s total of 120 is low, it is way better than last weeks 95.
Top Period Rate vs. spot.
Capes: Scope trading 12 MOS $11,000 vs. $9,758.
Pmax: Atlantic Horizon 4 – 6 MOS $15,500 vs. $15,266.
Smax: Prabhu Lal 3 – 5 MOS $13,000 vs. $14170.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =24, Post P =4, Kmax =5, Pmax =49, Smax =22, Hmax =8, Hsize =4, Bulker =3, Total =120. The best news here is simply VLOC =0.
Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated last week’s fixture reports. Navios Stellar, Poseidon, Navios Celestial, M/V Bonita. I observed a whole bunch of soy and corn fields under water as I traveled around this weekend. It was sad to think all the damage I was seeing is not even what has been mentioned in the news. Corn is going to get real tight.
I read that 4 mature capes were traded to the breakers just this last week. SWEET!! There are years that have gone by with less Capesize scrapping.
Good Fortunes
Ski@TonMileTrader