Friday, March 4, 2011

Dry Bits Week 9

Ahoy There!
Top & Bottom 5 Day: FREE +9.96%, GLBS +7.17%, TBSI +6.21%>>>
SHIP -5.92%, EXM -6.0%, OCNF -6.41%. Readers will notice SHIP has populated the laggard list two weeks in a row. This qualifies as an alert to the momentum folks. Sector wide we had 9 gainers and 7 losers during the week. Uncle George’s DryShips/DrillShips almost made the top 3. It (DRYS) would have been the top dog if folks had read the latest DRYS projections authored by Ohms Law. We will be sharing portions of the report next TMT post.

The Baltics: BDI @1346 +8.11%, BCI @1427 +8.51%, BPI @1983 +9.43%,
BSI @1467 +5.92%, BHSI @704 +2.32%. This was a good week for the owners. Looking at the Baltic numbers Boomer James points out that Capes boast a 1427 point index compared to the Handies lowly sounding 704. That is less than half the cape index yet Handies are earning twice as much as Capes on the spot. Try to bounce them numbers off the Baltic’s formula and the index calculations have weighting issues that jump out at you.

The Fixtures: Ore =15, Coal =3, Bauxite =2, Scrap =1, HSS =1, T/C =87, Period =15, Total =124.
The Ore Chores dropped more than we expected. The drop in coal is significant but kinda the way it works. Hit one week off the next. One of Genco’s little boats Genco Sugar is hauling that load of scrap and we will look closer at it below.

Top Period & Spot rates:
Capes $16,000 11 > 13 MOS Spot $5,277
Panasisters $17,500 4 > 6 MOS Spot $15,478
Supras $17,250 4 > 6 MOS Spot $15,202
Handies $12,250 11 > 13 MOS Spot $10,460
This is amazing that we see another long term cape fixing way over the spot. We can only guess what those folk paying giant premiums above the spot market know that we don’t know!!!

Ski Notes: We have the following familiar vessels showing up in the reports. Navios Kypros, Genco Sugar, Phoenix Beauty, Navios Primavera, Thor Infinity, Corona. The fixture for the Genco Sugar has the vessel running scrap from Antwerp to Alexandria at a rate of USD27,00. Our calculations indicate this will be a profitable fixture in spite of the local areas abundance of available tonnage. The Panamax fixture volume was dismal until Thursday signing 24 CP. Even with the big day the week was weak.
Good Fortunes
Ski

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