Saturday, March 26, 2011

Dry Bits Week 12

Top & Bottom 5 Day: NMM @19.89 +9.70%, OCNF @0.70 +9.375%, DRYS @4.90 +8.40% >>>GLBS @8.39 -1.06%, SBLK @2.44 -1.21%, FREE @2.76 -1.42%. The fact that Navios Partners gained almost 10% somewhat legitimizes the Economou family plays. Bear in mind :~) that Angel’s spin NMM, is the only pure bulk play with both DRYS and Cousin Eddie’s OCNF running mixed fleets. For our covered sector, Ganiers 12 and Losers 4.

The Baltics: BDI @1585 +3.52%, BCI @1805 +6.99%, BPI @2078 -0.76%, BSI @1603 +1.84%, BHSI @780 +3.31%. The Handies continue the comeback posting their 7th consecutive week of gains. Do we think this might have something to do with the newbuild deliveries killing the larger tonnage fleets?

The Fixtures: Ore =14, Coal =7, T/C =84, Period =31, total =136. The Ore Chores and coal runs both saw huge w.o.w. improvements. The real headliner comes from the period market where we saw ~ one in five fixtures going “long”.

Top weekly fixtures vs. spot rates;

Capes $16,000 trading 11 – 13 MOS Navios Happiness vs. spot $10,634

Pmax $22,500 trading 4 – 6 MOS m/v Accord vs. spot $16,684

Smax $21,500 trading 3 – 5 MOS m/v New Liu Lin Hai vs. spot $16,854

Readers will notice the Supramax class is fetching more spot dollars than the Panasisters or Capes. The market remains Kadywhompus. The Cape/Pana ratio is being outperformed by the Cape/Supra spreads. Who are we to question the markets performance.

The Vessels: Capes =25, Post Pana =5, Kmax =4, Pmax =57, Smax =22, Hmax =4, Hsize =4, Bulkers =5. The capes employment is directly a function of the improved ore trades. The smaller ladies will start seeing more ECSA runs as we begin pulling from the harvests. Looking for the market to again improve this next coming week. Last week we had mentioned hitting 800 BHSI and even though we did not make it, we again stress the little ones will rock. Like our friend from Cotzias Shipping (Bernard) says “give me a handy with gears any day” so we wonder when EGLE will receive the markets affection.

Ski Notes: The following familiar vessels populated the week’s fixture reports. Navios Azimuth, Navios Asericks, Navios Serenity, Navios Cielo, Navios Herakles, Newsea’s Pearl, Genco Rhone, Navios Happiness. The newest addition to Angel’s fleet is the Serentity, beginning a Cargill charter ex yard. The “open to the public” Yahoo message board’s normally raucous and foul mouthed threads have been minus one of the few dry bulk informed posters this last week. The staff at TonMileTrader suggest this development yields more bad than good for genuine bulker enthusiasts looking for scraps of valuable information buried among the public offerings. Cheering good news is great and fun, enduring repetitive (yet accurate) bad news is perhaps compulsory.

Good Fortunes

Ski

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