Dry Bits Week 52

Ahoy There!

Please Pardon the relaxed format.  We are not preparing a normal weekly report due to insufficient data.  The alert on TOPS has been rescinded after we hear of 24M loss on sale of yet another bulker.  They (TOPS) may be down to owning only 1 more bulker (Cape) and 6 product tankers.   

	GLBS @3.31 (+6.43%), PRGN @0.64 (+3.23%), GPRT @0.67 (+1.21%) >>>
	EXM @1.45 (-11.04%), FREE @0.43 (-14%), NEWL @0.46 (-29.23%).

The composition of this week’s Top & Bottom 5 Day is in itself unsettling.  Four of the six companies have share prices in the pennies.  A look at the future of EXM has Boomer James betting they (EXM) become a penny stock during 2012. 

I did see a few fixtures and noticed some particulars like the Navios Pollux will be steaming a transatlantic round on T/C for $25,500 daily.  The Japanese have fixed coal from both USG and Brazil putting on some decent ton miles.   

Good Fortunes 

Dry Bits

Ahoy There!  

According to China Economic Net the number of large scale mines in China has climbed to 4,684, while overall the number of mines has decreased from 127,000 (in 2005) to 113,000 in 2010.  The number of coal mines has decreased from 18,000 to 13,000while coal production has risen from 2.2 billion tons to 3.2 billion tons.  We have no idea how many mines operate here in the United States but somehow doubt we have anywhere near One Hundred Thirteen Thousand.  That also applies for coal mines numbering far less than Thirteen Thousand coal mines reported in China…and the Chinese are net importers! 

The business of tariffs and how they affect shipping are our primary focus as we examine an article from Reuters wherein the readers are told about the Moroccan Government slapping a 135% tariff on soft wheat coupled with 80% applied to durum.  The local wheat produced is of such poor quality that it must be mixed with an increasing amount of imported grain just to yield a product that will bake.  Who would like to guess if the tariff helps the poor local farmer, or the wealthy and privileged leaders?  Anyhow it caught my eye as being expensive and probably does the people a disservice.   

China has received the first of Vale's giant iron ore vessels:  The last Dry Bit today also comes from our Buds at Reuters and the story is about China, the Chinese Shipowners Association (CSA), and Vale’s super sized (VLCC) vessel the Berge Everest.  It has been confirmed that the vessel’s cargo of iron ore is being unloaded at Dalian China.  This is a monumental event that underscores a few ideas.  First the idea that an organization that represents over 80% of all Chinese Shipowners would be trumped by the steel industry should give us an idea of how that food chain plays out.  The political power clearly goes to the Mills when it comes to Beijing and for good reason.  When we look at the many jobs created and sustained through the steel industry and the quality of life for those numerous employees, it is a no brainer that a handful of private shipowners (even though wealthy) would be so easily ignored.  The TonMileTrader resident dry bulk analyst Boomer James  has a different take on these events.   "China has allowed Vale (at least temporarily) access to its ports in part because of the discord with MERCOSUR.  China believes this will gain them leverage as they try to overcome some protectionist sentiments harbored by some of the member countries.  The folks from the trade group tell us that South Americans do not want cheap Chinese goods to flood their markets.  Boomer says if the Chinese feel offended after discussing this with MERCOSUR they will certainly pull the VLCC welcome back off the table." 

Good Fortunes

Ski@TonMileTrader

Week # 51

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  SHIP 2.36 (+6.79%) GLBS 3.11 (+3.67%) NM 3.67 (+3.38%) >> EGLE 0.985 (-7.94%) SBLK 0.91 (-9.00%) TOPS 1.99 (-9.13%).  The laggards provide us a T&B5Day Alert courtesy of TOPS posting consecutive losing performances. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1738 (-7.94%), BCI 3287 (-7.98%), BPI 1645 (-7.32%), BSI 1176 (-1.42%), BHSI 577 (-1.87%).    The number of fixtures drops during the holidays and that generally translates into bad news over at the Baltic.  The BHSI is on a course to sink down too historical lows.  I think 268 is the lowest the BHSI ever recorded.

The Fixtures:  Ore =16, Coal =7, T/C =55, Period =7, Grain =1, Bauxite =1, total =87.  The ore chores tally comes in way below healthy.  The coal volume (although low) is doable thanks to Taipower returning to the market.  The period plays dropped off significantly (4 wk avg.= 14.5) with the market makers on Holiday. 

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  Klara Selmer    1 Year            $18,500  vs. $30,926.
Pmax:  Great Rich      4-6 MOS          $13,000 vs. $14,187.
Smax:  none reported                                        vs. $12,368.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =17, P/P =2, Kmax =8, Pmax =40, Smax =11, Hmax =3, Hsize =4, Bulker =2, total =87.  The following Familiar Vessels populated the fixture reports; Kronos, Star Lily, Danae, Athos. 

Ski Notes:  The Island People (TBSI) came to an agreement with some of its lenders that saw four of its new vessels snatched (like repossessed) and value of its existing shares eliminated “The terms of these agreements do not provide for any remaining value in the outstanding ordinary or preferred shares of TBS.” yet… I watched the market trade up the shares on the NASDAQ.  The shares opened at 22 cents and gained 68% trading briefly at 37 cents a share.   Hello People…

A Dry Bit from BRS
“Not surprisingly, the average age of ship scrapped in 2011 is significantly lower than in 2009: at 33 years for the Handysizes, 30 years for the Panamaxes and Supramaxes, and a striking 27 years for the Capesizes.”
Good Fortunes
Ski

Raw Data

Dec (19 - 23) 2011		Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Totals
Ore		3	2	3	3	5	16
Coal		1	1	3	1	1	7
T/C		14	7	8	14	12	55
Period		2	2	2	1	0	7
Grain		0	1	0	0	0	1
Bauxite		0	0	1	0	0	1
							87
VLOC		0	0	0	0	0	0
Capes		4	2	3	3	5	17
P/P		0	0	1	0	1	2
Kmax		1	1	2	4	0	8
Pmax		9	8	4	10	9	40
Smax		5	1	3	0	2	11
Hmax		1	0	2	0	0	3
Hsize		0	1	2	1	0	4
Bulkers		0	0	0	1	1	2
Total		20	13	17	19	18	87
			Best Done Period vs. spot
Capes	Klara Selmer		1 Year		$18,500	vs.	$30,926
Pmax	Great Rich		4-6 MOS		$13,000	vs.	$14,187
Smax	none reported					vs.	$12,368
		Good Fortunes

Shippers that have split

The splits

BHO   B & H Ocean                          Nov. 2011       delist

ESEA  Euroseas                                  Oct. 2006        1:3

NEWL            Newlead Holdings      Aug. 2010       1:12

TOPS  Top Ships                                Jun.  2011        1:10

FREE  Freeseas                                   Oct.  2010       1:5

SHIP   Seanergy                                 Jun.  2011        1:15

SBLK  Star Bulk                                   12/ 2008  1026:1000

KEX    Kirby Corp                              Jun. 2006         2:1

ISH     International Ship                   Nov. 1995       5:4

Dry Bits Week #50

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  ISH $19.79 (+4.32%), DSX $7.99 (+0.25%) >>> TOPS $2.19 (-15.77%), FREE $0.50 (-18.03%), GLBS $3.00 (-28.91%).   It is somewhat surprising that DSX holds a leader slot this week considering the news about the counterparty lack of payment.  A look at the laggards and we relate the drubbing FREE took on Wall Street with having a vessel arrested over a $93,500 claim.  The spanking handed out to GLBS remains a mystery at this point but the company dropped almost 30% in value in 5 days

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1888 (-1.77%), BCI 3572 (-3.38%), BPI 1775 (+3.62%), BSI 1193 (-3.01%), BHSI 588 (-2.33%).  For those keeping score the last day the handysize index closed with a gain was Oct 17^th 2011, so for the last 60 trading sessions everyday has been a bad day if you were fixing a handy... 

The Fixtures:  Ore =16, Coal =1, T/C =83, Period =19, Grain =1, total =120.  The ore chores come in low for the second straight week dropping the 4 week average down to 19.5 fixtures per week.  (We call 25 decent)  The single coal fixture is a Hampton Roads load of United States steam coal headed for Brindisi Italy, chartered by ENEL.  A Major Coal Smoker is located in Brindisi and it is the largest electricity producer in Italy. 

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =21, P/P =2, Kmax =9, Pmax =57, Smax =28, Hmax =1, Hsize =0, Bulker =2, total =120. 

Ski Notes:  The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports; Genco Cavalier, Navios Hyperion, Dione, Navios Astra, Navios Fantastiks, Genco Vigour.  I am not sure of all the particulars but DSX is in the process of trying to get paid 4.8M they are owed for hire of the MV Houston.  The delinquent counterparty Shagang Shipping Company is a subsidy ofJiangsu Shagang Group the largest private steel mill in China.

Good Fortunes

Ski

Week 49

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  GLBS 4.22 (+12.53%) DSX 7.97 (+4.86%) SFL 10.87 (+4.31%) >>>
PRGN 0.70 (-6.66%) SHIP 2.56 (-6.90%) EGLE 1.08 (-8.47%). 
No  active T&B alerts.  Paragon slapped  with delisting notice, PRGN Reverse split within 6 Months.

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1922 (+3.00%) BCI 3697 (+8.44%) BPI 1713 (+0.70%) BSI 1230 (-7.86%) BHSI 602 (-3.37%).   The BHSI is at its lowest value in over a year!

The Fixtures:  Ore =17, Coal =3, T/C =91, Period =12, Bauxite =1, total =124. 

                        Best Done Period vs. Spot Rate

Capes:  Alpha Cozmos     5-7 MOS   $20,750  vs.  $31,118.

Pmax:  Xin Shun             70 Days      $21,500  vs.  $13,472.

Smax:  Equinox Dream   4-6 MOS   $11,300   vs.  $13,366.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =29, P/P =4, Kmax =12, Pmax =44, Smax =26, Hmax =3, Hsize =3, Bulkers =3, Total =124.

Ski Notes:  The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports, Baltic Bear, Nord Hercules, Great Eagle, Genco Leader, Yasa Eagle, Ocean Emperor.  For the folks paying close attention to TORM the company has chartered a Pannie on T/C for $15,500 daily running some ore out of Tubarao.

Good Fortunes

VLOC Taking On Water

 Ahoy There!

RIO DE JANEIRO/SEOUL, Dec 6 (Reuters) - The world's largest iron-ore vessel is disabled and could sink in a port where Brazil's Vale, the world top producer, loads about 10 percent of global supplies of the commodity, shipping agents and the ship's operator said.

The Vale Beijing, a 361-metre-long vessel that can carry 400,000 tonnes of iron ore, has a leak in a ballast tank, operator STX Pan Ocean said. Shipping agents told Reuters the vessel had ruptured its hull.

The incident at Ponta da Madeira Port near Sao Luis, Brazil, is another blow to a multi-billion-dollar plan by Vale to develop a fleet of 35 giant iron ore carriers to compete with Australian producers for market share in China, the world's largest iron-ore consumer.

The first in the 400,000 deadweight-tonne class of vessels was blocked by Chinese authorities from docking in China earlier this year.

"Sinking is the worst-case scenario," said a spokesman for STX Group, the parent of STX Pan Ocean. "But we believe that the situation is not that serious."

The Vale Beijing is carrying enough iron ore to make the steel for nearly 3-1/2 Golden Gate bridges. If it sank or faced more problems, it could delay operations at the port, which is responsible for nearly 10 percent of the world's 1 billion tonnes of annual sea-borne iron-ore shipments.

The Panamanian-registered ship, which had been due to depart on Sunday bound for Rotterdam, is expected to be moved to an anchorage area for repairs, Vale said in a statement late on Monday.

SOURCE: Reuters

Week 48

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  NM @3.90 (+21.49%), EXM @1.97 (+19.39%), NMM @15.42 (+14.22%), >>>  SBLK @1.11 (-9.01%), NEWL @0.65 (-9.72%), FREE @0.61 (-21.79%).  The market was moved for Angels holding company Navios Maritime by the headline “JPMorgan Chase initiated coverage of the stock with an overweight rating.”.  It should also be noted that the gentleman on TV (Mr. Cramer) favorably mentioned the 3$ stock. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI 1866 (+3.26%), BCI 3409 (+11.80), BPI 1701 (-5.18%),

BSI 1335 (-3.26%), BHSI 623 (-2.50%).  The cape index carries the Baltic as all three smaller classes lose steam.  This is surprising with the grain activity being reported in the USG at healthy volumes, I had expected the Handies and Supras to be performing better.  Well I was wrong and that bodes very badly for some cash strapped owners.

The Fixtures:  Ore =21, Coal =6, T/C =66, Period =11, Grain =1, total =105.  The “Ore chores” volume slipped 12% from 4 week average, and coal fell off 45% in the absence of major smokers like TaiPower.  The T/C numbers come in soft and no capes found period employment leaving us real fortunate that the week was a positive for the equities.

                        Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates

Capes:  none reported                                           $29,010.

Pmax:  Capt. Evangelos  4-6 MOS  $23,000  vs.  $13,979.

Smax:  Dumun                 3-5 MOS $13,750   vs.  $14,408.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =28, P/P =3, Kmax =10, Pmax =38, Smax =18,

Hmax =1, Hsize =3, Bulkers =4, total =105.  I just saw an article TMT Friend Ohms Law had mentioned

Ski Notes:  The following “familiar” vessels populated the fixture reports; Genco Surprise, Thetis, Calipso, New Horizon, Saldanha, Poseidon, Navios Titan.  It should be noted we are respectful of all investment styles.  It remains our opinion that shipping equities are not well suited for typical long investors and investments in the sector should be made by attentive momentum traders. 

Good Fortunes

Ski 

Dry Bit

Ahoy There!

USDA Grain Report parts of;

“Shipments of wheat to Africa and Mexico increased as did soybean shipments to Japan and the Netherlands. Mississippi River and Texas Gulf inspections increased 9 and 90 percent, respectively, due mainly to more shipments of wheat from each region. However, grain inspections dropped 45 percent in the Pacific Northwest.”

“During the week ending November 24, 35 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 30 percent from last year. Fifty-eight vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 8 percent less than the same period last year.”

“During the week ending November 25, ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $57 per metric ton (mt), 1 percent less than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $31 per mt—3 percent less than the previous week.”

“Ocean rates for wheat shipped from the PNW to Japan increased just over 1 percent from the second quarter but dropped 10 percent from last year due to the slowdown in grain shipping (GTR, dated 11/10/11). Ocean rates for wheat shipped from the Gulf to Japan decreased slightly from the second quarter, and dropped 14 percent from last year due primarily to excess vessel supply and the slowdown in shipping of U.S. grain.”

”The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. On average, this includes nearly 45 percent of U.S.-grown wheat, 35 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans, and 20 percent of the U.S.-grown corn. Approximately 61 percent of the U.S. export grain shipments departed through the U.S. Gulf region in 2010.”

“In 2010, containers were used to transport 5 percent of total U.S. waterborne grain exports, and 7 percent of U.S. grain expo rts to Asia. Asia is the top destination for U.S. containerized grain exports—94 percent in 2010.”

Good Fortunes