Dry Bulk Invitation !!

"With earnings season upon us, I've posted my estimates athttp://www.littledief.com/estimates.asp for wider circulation of all the numbers, in case any of the TMT community is interested. It is geared at looking for trends / distortions in shippers, not the exact EPS (though nice when it happens!).

This is a hobby effort and nothing provided should be considered as investing advice and everyone should do their own research. Any estimate is based on the information known at that time, so numbers will change as conditions change.

Disclosure: I own DRYS, SB and TRMD.”

Dave posting for Ohms

Dry Bits Week 3

Top & Bottom 5 Day: Top & Bottom 5 Day: EGLE @$1.21 (+14.15%), FREE @$0.433 (+11.03%), SFL @$11.37 (+10.82%) >>>NM @$3.62 (-3.21%), SHIP @$2.37 (-3.27%), GPRT @$60 (-4.21%). This week’s leader (Eagle) is up ~ 35% since Christmas. That would have made anyone a great Christmas gift. Shares of EGLE traded for 89 cents apiece on December 27^th. Last week we alerted ESEA for a short trade consideration and the shares closed the week down -2.85%. Nothing to write home about, we will call the trade FLAT, as in no gain or loss.   If Eagle happens to make the leader board next week, you can bet we will sound the short alarm!

The Baltic Exchange: BDI 862 (-18.14%), BCI 1554 (-9.81%), BPI 1020 (-19.30%) BSI 807 (-16.89%), BHSI 485 (-9.01%). Read these numbers with some sad Eagles song playing in the background. Gives you the blues ya know!

The Fixtures: Ore =16, Coal =13, T/C =76, Period =8, total =113. The ore chores matched last week’s lethargic demand. Volume is off around 40%, and that just kills the capes when the ore chores dry up. The coal runs come in stronger than last week’s very good numbers, leaving us hopeful of apparent increase in average coal demand & ton/miles. We will let you know when that happens.

Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes: Lake D 4-6 MOS $13,350 vs. $6,805.

Pmax: Kalyipso 4-6 MOS $9,850 vs. $8,438.

Smax: Dimi 36-41 MOS $11,000 vs. $8,969.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =20, PostP =5, Kmax =9, Pmax =47, Smax =24, Hmax =2, Hsize =2, Bulkers =4, total =113. The following Familiar Vessels populated the fixture reports this week. Star Life, Ocean Spirit, Ocean Gold, Newlead Victoria, Navios Vega, Genco Rhome, Sea Moon, Kalyipso.

Ski Notes: During the week Capesize earnings fell below the Handysize, giving the dry bulk market yet another indication of disaster. Boomer James translates a shipping term for those readers less informed. Kadywhompus : A phenomena that occurs in dry bulk shipping when the larger vessels become cheaper to rent compared to much smaller vessels. So remember, sometimes size matters the most.

Good Fortunes

Ski

Ag Clip

Ahoy There!

During the week ending January 5, 40 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, up 5 percent from the same week last year. Sixty-one vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 19 percent less than the same period last year.

During the week ending January 6, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $56 per metric ton (mt), unchanged from the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $29 per mt, 2 percent less than the previous week.

The January World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report indicates an increase for corn exports in 2011/12 compared to the December estimate. Corn exports are expected higher because of unfavorable growing conditions in South America. WASDE also indicates a decrease in soybean exports from the December projection. Johnny.Hill@ams.usda.gov




Bloomberg Radio is on my I phone:

Dry Bits Week 2

Ahoy There!

Top & Bottom 5 Day: ESEA @2.81 (+9.34%), ISH @20.71 (+7.53%), NM @3.74 (+7.47%) >>> PRGN @.652 (-5.51%), SHIP @2.45 (-7.55%), FREE @.39 (-17.02%). We still are not sure why ISH gapped at Tuesday’s opening bell, but it helped put the company on the Top & Bottom 5 Day leader board. For the folks who enjoy trading, we at Dry Bits alert readers too Euroseas, suggesting a possible short play. The mixed fleet operator has enjoyed 2 consecutive weeks on the leader board.

The Baltic Exchange: BDI 1053 (-21.83%), BCI 1723 (-25.22%), BPI 1264 (-17.76%), BSI 971 (-12.68%), BHSI 533 (-5.33%). Synchronized sinking!

Waving goodbye 2 your investment dollars!

The Fixtures: Ore =16, Coal =10, T/C =92, Period =7, Grain =1, total =126. The ore chores start out the new year with low volume and even a good week on the coal side of things cannot fill the void. The grain fixture caught my eye. We have 30k dwt of corn heading towards Tunisia. The charterer is Perdue. Could that be the same Perdue that grows my favorite chicken? Now they are growing chickens in Africa?

Best Done Period vs. spot

Capes: Zong May 4-6 MOS $14,750 vs. $15,477.

Pmax: Yong Jin 3-5 MOS $13,250 vs. $12,272.

Smax: Star Delta 3-5 MOS $11,000 vs. $10,442.

The Vessels: VLOC =0, Capes =20, P/P =5, Kmax =9, Pmax =52, Smax =27, Hmax =4, Hsize =3, Bulkers =6, total =126.

Ski Notes: The following “familiar vessels” populated the fixture reports this week, Mendocito, Star Delta, Navios Arc, Star Borealis, Golden Future, Nord Galaxy. The folks at Newlead Holdings LTD (NEWL) have sold the last owned bulker, therefore we discontinue our coverage.

Good Fortunes

Spot Earnings Decay 2012

Ahoy There!
Looking at the earnings in the spot market since the turn of the new year we make the following observations.
Capesize (-65.56%)
Pmax (-20.33%)
Smax (-15.57%)
Hsize (-5.21%)
btw; Capes are now earning less per day than Panamax or Supramax vessels.

Good Fortunes
Ski

Dry Bits 2012 Week #1

Ahoy There!

Again we are in Holiday mode with no complete report, yet not to be denied we will call this Week #1.  When we look at the Baltic indices we compare end of week too end of week results when calculating gains or losses.  Since December 23^rd 2011 was the last real end of week for the Baltic we used it for the calcs.  The already low BDI dropped another (-22.5%) twenty two and one half percent.  So we are going to skip that part also.

Way to much bad karma starting the new year. 

Top & Bottom:  GLBS @4.30 (+29.91%), SHIP @2.65 (+22.69%), ESEA @2.57 (+9.36%) >>> GPRT @66.5 (-2.24%), NM @3.45 (-2.52%), BALT @4.31 (-9.26%).

The Baltics: 

BDI 1347	BCI 2304	BPI 1537	BSI 1112	BHSI 559

Good Fortunes

Ag Clip

Ahoy There!

During the week ending December 29, 30 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 29 percent from this week last year. Fifty vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 24 percent less than the same period last year. 

During the week ending December 30, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $56 per metric ton (mt), 2 percent less than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $29.50 per mt, 2 percent more than the previous week.

A cool and informative article on corn by Marvin.Prater@ams.usda.gov  is contained in this weeks grain transportation report.

Good Fortunes

DSX 2012 Charter Data

DSX2012Charter 


Vessel          Expry           Old Rate    % Comm   $Comm     Net Daily          Spot        $ Change       # Days

Thetis           23-Jan-12    $13,750       5%           $687.50   $13,062.50       $12,770    ($292.50)        342

Coronis         6-Mar-12    $24,000      5%           $1,200       $22,800            $12,770     ($10,030)     301

Clio               8-Apr-12    $25,000      5%            $1,250      $23,750           $12,770     ($10,980)       269

Arethusa      24-May-12   $13,250       5%          $662.5      $12,587.50       $12,770    $182.50         221

Protefs            6-Jul-12    $11,750      4.75%        $558.13    $11,191.87     $12,770   $1,578.13         178

Dione            26-Jul-12     $20,500      5%           $1,025       $19,475           $12,770     ($6,705)        158

Oceanis         17-Aug-12   $19,750     5%            $987.50     $18,762.50     $12,770     ($5,992.50)    139

Nais              24-Aug-12   $19,750      5%  $987.50         $18,762.50       $12,770     ($5,992.50)      132

SLC              28-Aug-12   $55,800      5%         $2,790.00     $53,010.00  $21,857    ($31,153)         128

Alcmene          5-Oct-12   $20,250      5%       $1,012.50    $19,237.50      *$12,770    ($6,467.50)       87

Alcyon        21-Nov-12   $34,500   4.75%    $1,638.75     $32,861.25      $12,770      ($20,091.25)      40

Eratos          26-Dec-12    $12,000    5%         $600             $11,400         $12,770            $1,370        5

This is a leap year with 29 Days in Feb.

*Alcmene is a P/Panamax   used Panamax Spot Rate for calculation

Eratos just went on charter but it could be returned Dec 26th of 2012

If you own DSX !

BDI begins New Year Ugly

Ahoy There!

 This is the first I seen of the Baltics this year. 

Today:
BDI	1624	(-114)
Time Charter Average (USD)
CAPESIZE	23991	(-3521)
PANAMAX	12927	(-212)
SUPRAMAX	12111	(-185)
HANDYSIZE	8226	(-93

Bernard:  I need to talk with you soon.  Pls e-mail me as I have lost your address.

Ag Clips

Ahoy There!

During the week ending December 22, 39 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 11 percent from this week last year. Forty-six vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, unchanged from the same period last year.

During the week ending December 23, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $57 per metric ton (mt), 1 percent less than the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $29 per mt, 3 percent less than the previous week.

Excess dry-bulk vessel capacity resulted in average 2011 Gulf to Japan ocean rates dropping 14.4

percent from 2010; PNW to Japan ocean rates dropping 15.7 percent in 2011.

Demand for corn from the ethanol industry is not expected to increase significantly because corn ethanol production is close to reaching the RFS cap of 15 billion gallons per year.

Happy New Year!

Dave