Week 17

Week 17

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

GLBS @5.10 up 8.51%, VLCCF @12.51 up 5.65%, SBLK @0.99 up 5.31% >>>

EGLE @1.73 down 2.80%, SHIP @3.50 down 8.13%, FREE @1.23 down 11.51%.  I could cut and paste this … FREE gives up another double digit loss in five days.  I could point out some of the differences beholden to a foreign issued equity that allows………

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =1156 (+8.34%), BCI =1499 (-2.21%), BPI =1738 (+16.87%),

BSI =1102 (+8.03%), BHSI =589 (-7.24%).  The BPI catches flight as SA grain runs continues to draw vessels thereby leaving tonnage tight in other key panasister routes.  SWEET!

The Fixtures:

Ore =8, Coal =10, T/C =89, Period =16, Sulphur =1, total =124.  The ore chores fall to the lowest full week volume this year.  Not good!  On a brighter note the coal fixtures doubled the 4 week average.  Very good! 

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  Blue Moon                11-13 MOS     $12,000 vs.  $6,417

Pmax:  Obelix Bulker            4-6 MOS         $12,000 vs. $13,798

Smax:  Barilone                     4-6 MOS         $15,000 vs. $11,471

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =21, P/Pmax =5, Kmax =11, Pmax =44, Smax =30,

Hmax =5, Hsize =7, Bulker =1, total =124.

The Futures:

………….Capes         Pmax          Smax

Spot         $6,417       $13,798     $11,471

CAL13   $13,750      $10,250     $10,250

CAL14   $15750       $11,500     $11,750

CAL15   $16,750      $12,250     $12,000

Ski Notes:

The recent panamax run has been over examined but I will add that 1 out of every 3 fixtures last week was a panna!   The long overdue report on DRYS will be published this week.  Boomer has been on an extended holiday and we hope… given a few good meals (and some non alcoholic beverages) his digestive operations may return to normal.  The office just is not big enough.

Good Fortunes

Dry Bulk Fleet Growth

Ahoy There!

In conversation with Mike reviewing Clarksons last weekly publication the data on an extrapolated basis suggests the following.

The total dry bulk fleet has grown by ~27Mdwt since the beginning of this year.  The net fleet growth implied by this during 2012 will be close to 88Mdwt of additional capacity giving us in effect real close to a 14% net fleet growth for the year.  CRS is expecting dry bulk demand growth to be around 4% in 2012.  If we look at historical fleet utilization percentages and rates the correlation is clear.  Capacity kills utilization, and then utilization kills rates. 

Of course this is all based on extrapolated numbers that could dramatically change. 

Dry Bits Week 16

Ahoy There!  Week #16

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

BALT @4.64 up 13.73%, SBLK @0.94 up 8.05%, EXM @1.75 up 5.42% >>>

DRYS @3.16 down 3.95%, VLCCF @11.84 down 7.57%, FREE @1.39 down 9.15%.

If we could count on BALT to stay lock stepped with the changes in the Baltic Index we might be able to make a play or two.  The big name DRYS being listed among the laggards was a bit of a surprise.  The sector worst performing equity FREE played out exactly as we thought it would giving up almost ten percent while the index gained 10%.

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =1067 (+9.77%), BCI =1533 (-2.48%), BPI =1487 (+28.41%), BSI =1020 (+8.97%), BHSI =635 (+17.59%).   

The Fixtures:

Ore =15, Coal =7, T/C =82, Period 11, Scrap =1, total =116. 

The ore chores hold par with the 4 week average of 14.5 ore fixtures, but the coal underperformed the average by 20 percent. 

            Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates

Capes:  none reported                                            vs.   $6,627.        

PMax:  Pan Uno                    4-6 MOS   $15,000 vs. $10,835.

SMax:  Toucan Bulker          4-6 MOS  $12,000  vs. $10,374.

HMax:  Marleybone               3-5 MOS  $13,500  vs. $ 8,399.

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =24, Post P =5, Kmax =15, Pmax =44, Smax =24, Hmax =1,

Hsize =1, Bulkers =2, total =116.

The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports this past week.

Ocean Trader, Nord Aquila, Thor Achiever, Akmi, Navios Meridian, Navios Vector, Genco Titus, Grand Clipper, Calipso, Lusitania G, Golden Bull, Clipper Monarch, Torm Atlantic.

The futures:

Capes              Pmax               Supra               H/S

Spot                 6,627              10,835             10,374             8,399

CAL13            14,250             10,250             10,250             8,500

CAL14            15,750             11,500             11,750             9,000              

CAL15            17,000             12,250             12,000             9,750

If we examine CAL13 last month we might get a sense of …? 

Therefore in the last 30 days the change in CAL13 future values are as follows. 

Capes:  gained 5.5%

Pmax:   lost 2.38%

Smax:   lost 4.65%,

Hsize:   unchanged

Ski Notes:

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Week 15

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

FREE @1.53 (+48.54%), SHIP @3.96 (+26.92%), DRYS @3.29 (+1.54%) >>>

VLCCF @12.81 (-7.17%), DSX @7.76 (-7.51%), SFL @13.61 (-7.92%).  From the leader board we ask you….Who is bullshitting who?  The only vote of confidence here in this weeks top & bottom 5 day is a suspicious vote for DRYS.  As for  FREE up by what?...and SHIP up by what??  If you can find them, borrow some of both.  It will pay!

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =972 up 4.72%, BCI =1572 up 4.31%, BPI =1158 up big 11.78%,

BSI =936 down 1.37%, BHSI =540 down 1.28%. 

The Fixtures:  Ore =7, Coal =0, T/C =45, Period =13, total =65.

The fixtures contain only 3 days of activity this holiday shortened week.  I do not remember any other time in my dry bulk experience that there where zero coal fixtures reported during a 3 day trading week.

            Best done Period vs. spot rates

Capes:  none reported                                                  vs.  $7080

Pmax:  Anagel Omonia         3-5 MOS          $11,000 vs.  $8,874

Smax:  Krania                        5-7 MOS          $11,000 vs. $9,719

Hsize:  Great Leader            11-13 MOS        $ 9,500 vs. $8,155

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =7, Post P =3, KMax =9, PMax =22

SMax =17, HMax =2, Hsize =4, Bulkers =1, total =65.

The Futures:

This is in the developmental stage so hang with me for bit.  Ideas r welcome!

I am inclined 2 not only address the ffa closing values,  but 2 try and add a measure of comfort/confidence through the addition of a time component.  Mayb 4wkavg? Sort of…

Capes;

PMax;

SMax;

Ski Notes:

The fleet valuation for DRYS remains incomplete, we expect next midweek.   The desk sits empty with a sign saying Boomer James is gone fishing!  Folks remember he is a bottom roller from the old days…

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Week 14

Ahoy There! - -Week 14

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

GPRT 90.75 (+11.01%), BALT 4.30 (+3.61%), GOGL 5.25 (+1.16%), >>>

EXM 1.75 (-12.50%), EGLE 1.69 (-12.89%), ESEA 1.98 (-13.16%).  For those who still enjoy the fun of trading we alert you to BALT earning a spot on the Top & Bottom 5 Day leader board… 2 weeks in a row.  Those who shorted EGLE are probably anticipating the price will continue to drop this next week (correcting for the recent rise in share price) as does Boomer James.  However we remind readers the equity has recently been able to find support in spite of the apparent fundamentals.

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =928 down 0.64%, BCI =1507 up 6.73%, BPI =1036 down 1.43%,

BHSI =949 down 7.86%, BHSI =547 down 3.19%.  The Capes must have hit a rock while dragging the bottom as they bumped up while all others are sinking.

The Fixtures:

Ore =16, Coal =2, T/C =25, Period =5, Grain =1, total =49 

            Best done Period vs. spot

Capes:  Anagel Merchant  3-6 MOS $10,000  vs.   $5,852.

PMax:  Ribbon                   5-7 MOS  $10,000  vs.  $8,337.

SMax:  NIKOLAOS A       4-6 MOS  $12,250  vs.  $10,092.

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =21, Post P =0, KMax =2, PMax =13, SMax =11

HMax =1, Hsize =0, Bulker =1, total =49.

Ski Notes:  At the beginning of the week I had some hopes for a run-up before Easter.  Well!!!  There is only 3 days worth the fixtures this week.  The Anagel Merchant worst performing Capesize period fixture we have seen in a while.  Sign of things to come?

Good Fortunes

Ski

Ag Clip

During the week ending March 29, 34 ocean-going grain vessels were loaded in the Gulf, down 33 percent from last year. Forty-one vessels are expected to be loaded within the next 10 days, 18 percent less than the same period last year.

During the week ending March 30, the ocean freight rate for shipping bulk grain from the Gulf to Japan was $51 per mt, unchanged from the previous week. The cost of shipping from the Pacific Northwest to Japan was $29.50 per mt, unchanged from the previous week.

Ag Rates

U.S. Gulf China Heavy Grain Mar 1/10 50,000 46.65

U.S. Gulf Korea Heavy Grain Mar 1/10 55,000 46.00

U.S. Gulf Japan Heavy Grain Apr 1/10 58,000 46.00

U.S. Gulf Turkey Heavy Grain Feb 25/28 50,000 25.00

U.S. Gulf Kenya1 Wheat Jan 16/25 11,000 188.00

PNW China Grain Jan 10/20 55,000 26.75

St. Lawrence Nigeria Wheat Apr 5/15 25,000 45.00

Argentina Morocco Barley Apr 1/10 25,000 39.75

Australia Vietnam Grain Mar 1/10 60,000 19.00

Brazil Tunisia Wheat Feb 14/16 23,750 38.50

Brazil Taiwan Heavy Grain Feb 1/10 65,000 29.50

Brazil China Heavy Grain May 1/30 66,000 40.50

Brazil China Heavy Grain Apr 1/10 60,000 47.75

Brazil China Heavy Grain Mar 5/15 60,000 43.00

Brazil China Heavy Grain Mar 1/10 60,000 44.75

Brazil China Grain Mar 1/10 55,000 47.00

River Plate China Heavy Grain Feb 20/25 60,000 45.00

River Plate Egypt Med Corn Feb 25/ Mar 5 30,000 39.25

River Plate Morocco Corn Mar 25/30 25,000 35.00

Ukraine Japan Corn Apr 6/15 47,000 47.50

EXM Current Fleet Value

Excel Maritime Carriers LTD Present Day Fleet Valuation. 

The current market value of EXM vessels is considered using the latest values from CRS. 

The EXM fleet has 7 Capesize vessels ranging in age from 1 to 13 years old with an average age of 6.71 years.  The combined value of these 7 vessels calculates to $219.5M.

The EXM fleet has 14 Kamsarmax vessels ranging in age from 5 to 7 years old with an average age of 5.85 years.  The combined value of these 14 vessels calculates to $294.0M.

The EXM fleet has 21 Panamax vessels ranging in age from 8 to 19 years old with an average age of 14.95 years.  The combined value of these 21 vessels calculates to $253.0M.

The EXM fleet has 2 Supramax vessels aged 7 years.  The combined value of these 2 vessels calculates to $54.0M.

The EXM fleet has 3 Handymax vessels ranging in age from 14 to 27 years old.  The elder vessel is skewing the average age to 19.66 years old.  The combined value of these 3 vessels calculates to $25.5M.

The EXM fleet has a total of 47 vessels ranging in age from 1 to 27 years old with an average age of 10.83 years old.  The combined value of these 47 vessels calculates to $846M. 

The average age of a vessel is not included in any valuation calculations and is used for reporting purposes only.  EXM reported via sec filings it thought the fleet carrying value exceeded market value by $1.6B.  Our calculations show the carrying value presented in the balance sheet is overvalued by about $1.8B with a present day fleet value of around $846M. 

Good Fortunes

Ski

Week 13

Ahoy There!

Week #13 March 31^st 2012

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

EGLE @1.94 (+7.78%), EXM @2.00 (+4.71%), BALT @4.15 (+4.27%)>>>

FREE @1.05 (-2.78%), SBLK @0.90 (-4.26%), SHIP @3.32 (-6.48%).  The folks keeping score have got Eagle pulling off a double earning a short alert again.  There is a divergence between what the market performance of EGLE shares has been in contrast to what we know the future holds for the earnings. 

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =934 up 2.86%, BCI =1412 up 3.14%, BPI =1051 up 1.45%,

BSI =1030 down 0.48%, BHSI =565 up 2.54%.  The “Mother of all Indexes” our BDI is again up this week, but to quote our senior editor describing the progress in a slowly rising environment  “still a lot of wood to chop” because at these rates the only good is to discourage potential first time ship-owners from going out and buying a boat.  That is one good thing about low rates.  Trying hard to be positive…but

The Fixtures:

Ore =16, Coal =11, T/C =85, Period =9, HSS =1, Corn =1, Wheat =1,

Sugar =1, total =125.  The ore chores maintaining the 4 week average demand, meanwhile the coal runs are strong and have increased their average now up to 9.5 fixtures per week.  Nice to see some of the small bulker fixes get reported to the Baltic.  I do not remember the last time we documented a dry bulk sugar fixture.  Pretty Cool ya know. 

            Best Done Period vs. spot rates

Capes:  Successor                               8-12 MOS        $11,000  vs.  $4,940.

Pmax:  ROSALIA D'AMATO          4-6 MOS          $10,650  vs.  $8,348.

Smax:  Mare Trader                          3-5 MOS          $14,000 vs.$10,905.

HSize:  n/r                                           n/a                                 vs.  $8,576.

The Vessels: 

VLOC =1, Capes =23, Post P =5, KMax =13, PMax =47, SMax =20,

HMax =8, HSize =4, Bulkers =4, total =125.  It is noteworthy that a VLOC hit the fixtures this week potentially absorbing 2 capesize vessel employments.  Nice touch…

remember this is shipping and we must cut off our foot 2 spite ourselves. 

“Dammit… Jim” 

Ski Notes:

My good friend Ohms has released another fine article on his website.  The article is titled “The Law of Averages”.   If you have not paid our official TMT’s Dry Bulk Seer  a visit recently you may be remiss???   http://blog.littledief.com/

Good Fortunes