Ahoy There!
In conversation with Mike reviewing Clarksons last weekly publication
the data on an extrapolated basis suggests the following.
The total dry bulk fleet has grown by ~27Mdwt since the beginning
of this year. The net fleet growth
implied by this during 2012 will be close to 88Mdwt of additional capacity
giving us in effect real close to a 14% net fleet growth for the year. CRS is expecting dry bulk demand growth to be
around 4% in 2012. If we look at historical
fleet utilization percentages and rates the correlation is clear. Capacity kills utilization, and then
utilization kills rates.
Of course this is all based on extrapolated numbers that
could dramatically change.
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