Week 20

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  SB @6.46 -2.26% >>> GNK @3.04 -22.84%, GLBS @3.75 -24.54%, GPRT @62.37 -26.4%.  Talk about an entire sector being taken to the woodshed.  The best performing shipper in our coverage universe was SB only losing 2.26%.  Shockingly 12 Shippers had double digit losses in value of the 19 covered companies.  This was by far the ugliest week of the year.  We report no alerts this week and if you played Eagle last week you lost around 11% not including costs of buying and selling. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI =1141 up 0.26%, BCI =1633 up 1.17%, BPI =1274 down 3.63%, BSI =1108 down 0.35%, BHSI =639 up 8.60%.  Finally we see the Panamax slide slow its rate of decay.  That’s a bit of good news…sort of.

The Fixtures:  Coal =1, Ore =6, T/C =52, Period =6, Bauxite =1 total =66.  The reports showed zero fixtures Thursday so we again cannot read too much into this not having our normal 5 days of data.  I will say this much…ore chores in the single digits…not good…T/C barely breaking 50…not good…

                        Best Done Period vs. spot rates

Capes:  none reported

Pmax:  Tian Baifeng    4-6 MOS       $11,500 vs. $10,101.

Smax:  Oxygen             4-6 MOS       $15,750 vs. $11,562.

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =10, Post P =3, Kmax =7, Pmax =28, Smax =11,

Hmax =3, Hsize =3, Bulker =1 total =66.  The following Familiar vessels populated the fixture reports; Ocean Shine, Cape Canary, Genco Lorrain. 

The Futures:

                        Capes              Pmax               Smax               Hsize

Index               8,921               10,101             11,562             9,480

CAL13            13,750             10,000             10,000             8,500

CAL14            15,750             11,250             11,250             9,000

CAL15            17,000             12,000             12,000             9,750

Ski Notes:  A special note of thanks goes out to a TMT  regular “ kr”.  Thank you for your contributions to our shipping discussions and your personal comments made to me.

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Week 19

Ahoy There!!!      Week #19

Top & Bottom 5 Day:   

GPRT @84.75 (+3.30%), SFL @12.96 (+2.28%), SHIP @3.18 (+1.27%) >>>

DRYS @7.60 (-11.68%), EGLE @1.08 (-15.62%), FREE @0.82 (-26.12%).

For the record EGLE has made the T&B 5Day laggard list 3 weeks consecutively.  Under normal circumstance this triggers an alert.  Ask yourself if EGLE has been getting unfairly hammered.  Then place your bets….

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =1138 down 1.64%, BCI =1614 up 2.41%, BPI =1322 down big 13.42%,

BSI =1112 down 0.53%, BHSI =616 up 2.32%.  The panasisters getting punished for making their run….

The Fixtures:

Coal =5, Ore =13, T/C =54, Period =12, Bauxite =1, total =85.  This weeks report has only 4 days of data hence less reading of the tea leaves.  Period activity is pretty strong suggesting the players feel rates will stay around current levels thru the next four months.

            Best Done Period vs. spot

Capes:  Navios Stellar          1 yr                    $12,250 vs. $  8,769

PMax:  IVS Merlot              4-6 MOS           $17,500 vs. $10,774

SMax:  none reported                                                  vs. $11,671

Hsize:  CMB Mae                4-7 MOS            $10,250 vs. $  9,181 

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =25, Post P =3, Kmax =8, PMax =36, SMax =10, HMax =0,

Hsize =1, Bulker =2, total =85.

The Futures: 

                              Capes          PMax         Supra         Hsize

Spot                     8,769           10,774        11,671        9,181

CAL13              14,000             9,750        10,000        8,500

CAL14              16,000           11,000        11,500        8,750

CAL14              17,000           12,000        12,000        9,750

Ski Notes:  The following “familiar” vessels populated the fixture reports;  Proteus,Navios Stellar, Ocean Dragon, Navios Felecity, Ocean Confidence,

Genco Challenger, Golden Enterprise, Golden Zhejiang. 

dry bits week 18

Ahoy There!   Week 18   2012

Top & Bottom 5 Day:  GLBS @5.10 unchanged >>> BALT @4.05 down 15.09%, GNK @4.30 down 21.10%, EGLE @1.28 down 26.01%.  The folks who regularly  read the ton mile trader are not surprised by the spanking Peter Pan’s magic companies (GNK & BALT) took, nor by them being joined in the laggard world by the likes of EGLE.  As the earnings (or lack of same) are being reported shock effects are expected. 

The Baltic Exchange:  BDI =1157 (+0.086%), BCI =1576 (+5.13%), BPI =1527 (-12.14%), BSI =1118 (+1.45%), BHSI =602 (+2.20%). 

The Fixtures:  Coal =7, Ore =7, T/C =41, Period =8, Sugar =1, total = 64.  The week had only four trading days so not too much can be said.  Saved by the bell if you ask me.  The volume fell apart with some holidays being an influence.

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  C Triumph        11-13 MOS             $11,750 vs. $7069

Pmax:  Tian Tong            4-6 MOS             $17,000 vs. $13,051

Smax:  Equinox Star        4-6 MOS            $12,400 vs. $11,582

Hmax:  none reported                                                vs. $ 9,066

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =16, Post P =3, Kmax =2, Pmax =22, Smax =14, Hmax =0, Hsize =2, Bulker =5, total =64.

The Futures:

                           Capes       Pmax        Supra         H/S

Spot                  $7,069      $13,051     $11,582     $9,066

CAL13            $14,250     $10,000     $10,250     $8,500

CAL14           $16,000     $11,250     $11,750      $9,000

CAL15           $17,000     $12,000     $12,000      $9,750

Ski Notes:

Speaking of Earnings (or lack of same) nobody should be surprised if they read our dry bulk seer’s predictions.  Check out Ohms HERE

Good Fortunes

Week 17

Week 17

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

GLBS @5.10 up 8.51%, VLCCF @12.51 up 5.65%, SBLK @0.99 up 5.31% >>>

EGLE @1.73 down 2.80%, SHIP @3.50 down 8.13%, FREE @1.23 down 11.51%.  I could cut and paste this … FREE gives up another double digit loss in five days.  I could point out some of the differences beholden to a foreign issued equity that allows………

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =1156 (+8.34%), BCI =1499 (-2.21%), BPI =1738 (+16.87%),

BSI =1102 (+8.03%), BHSI =589 (-7.24%).  The BPI catches flight as SA grain runs continues to draw vessels thereby leaving tonnage tight in other key panasister routes.  SWEET!

The Fixtures:

Ore =8, Coal =10, T/C =89, Period =16, Sulphur =1, total =124.  The ore chores fall to the lowest full week volume this year.  Not good!  On a brighter note the coal fixtures doubled the 4 week average.  Very good! 

            Best Done Period vs. Spot

Capes:  Blue Moon                11-13 MOS     $12,000 vs.  $6,417

Pmax:  Obelix Bulker            4-6 MOS         $12,000 vs. $13,798

Smax:  Barilone                     4-6 MOS         $15,000 vs. $11,471

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =21, P/Pmax =5, Kmax =11, Pmax =44, Smax =30,

Hmax =5, Hsize =7, Bulker =1, total =124.

The Futures:

………….Capes         Pmax          Smax

Spot         $6,417       $13,798     $11,471

CAL13   $13,750      $10,250     $10,250

CAL14   $15750       $11,500     $11,750

CAL15   $16,750      $12,250     $12,000

Ski Notes:

The recent panamax run has been over examined but I will add that 1 out of every 3 fixtures last week was a panna!   The long overdue report on DRYS will be published this week.  Boomer has been on an extended holiday and we hope… given a few good meals (and some non alcoholic beverages) his digestive operations may return to normal.  The office just is not big enough.

Good Fortunes

Dry Bulk Fleet Growth

Ahoy There!

In conversation with Mike reviewing Clarksons last weekly publication the data on an extrapolated basis suggests the following.

The total dry bulk fleet has grown by ~27Mdwt since the beginning of this year.  The net fleet growth implied by this during 2012 will be close to 88Mdwt of additional capacity giving us in effect real close to a 14% net fleet growth for the year.  CRS is expecting dry bulk demand growth to be around 4% in 2012.  If we look at historical fleet utilization percentages and rates the correlation is clear.  Capacity kills utilization, and then utilization kills rates. 

Of course this is all based on extrapolated numbers that could dramatically change. 

Dry Bits Week 16

Ahoy There!  Week #16

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

BALT @4.64 up 13.73%, SBLK @0.94 up 8.05%, EXM @1.75 up 5.42% >>>

DRYS @3.16 down 3.95%, VLCCF @11.84 down 7.57%, FREE @1.39 down 9.15%.

If we could count on BALT to stay lock stepped with the changes in the Baltic Index we might be able to make a play or two.  The big name DRYS being listed among the laggards was a bit of a surprise.  The sector worst performing equity FREE played out exactly as we thought it would giving up almost ten percent while the index gained 10%.

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =1067 (+9.77%), BCI =1533 (-2.48%), BPI =1487 (+28.41%), BSI =1020 (+8.97%), BHSI =635 (+17.59%).   

The Fixtures:

Ore =15, Coal =7, T/C =82, Period 11, Scrap =1, total =116. 

The ore chores hold par with the 4 week average of 14.5 ore fixtures, but the coal underperformed the average by 20 percent. 

            Best Done Period vs. Spot Rates

Capes:  none reported                                            vs.   $6,627.        

PMax:  Pan Uno                    4-6 MOS   $15,000 vs. $10,835.

SMax:  Toucan Bulker          4-6 MOS  $12,000  vs. $10,374.

HMax:  Marleybone               3-5 MOS  $13,500  vs. $ 8,399.

The Vessels:

VLOC =0, Capes =24, Post P =5, Kmax =15, Pmax =44, Smax =24, Hmax =1,

Hsize =1, Bulkers =2, total =116.

The following “Familiar Vessels” populated the fixture reports this past week.

Ocean Trader, Nord Aquila, Thor Achiever, Akmi, Navios Meridian, Navios Vector, Genco Titus, Grand Clipper, Calipso, Lusitania G, Golden Bull, Clipper Monarch, Torm Atlantic.

The futures:

Capes              Pmax               Supra               H/S

Spot                 6,627              10,835             10,374             8,399

CAL13            14,250             10,250             10,250             8,500

CAL14            15,750             11,500             11,750             9,000              

CAL15            17,000             12,250             12,000             9,750

If we examine CAL13 last month we might get a sense of …? 

Therefore in the last 30 days the change in CAL13 future values are as follows. 

Capes:  gained 5.5%

Pmax:   lost 2.38%

Smax:   lost 4.65%,

Hsize:   unchanged

Ski Notes:

Good Fortunes

Dry Bits Week 15

Top & Bottom 5 Day: 

FREE @1.53 (+48.54%), SHIP @3.96 (+26.92%), DRYS @3.29 (+1.54%) >>>

VLCCF @12.81 (-7.17%), DSX @7.76 (-7.51%), SFL @13.61 (-7.92%).  From the leader board we ask you….Who is bullshitting who?  The only vote of confidence here in this weeks top & bottom 5 day is a suspicious vote for DRYS.  As for  FREE up by what?...and SHIP up by what??  If you can find them, borrow some of both.  It will pay!

The Baltic Exchange:

BDI =972 up 4.72%, BCI =1572 up 4.31%, BPI =1158 up big 11.78%,

BSI =936 down 1.37%, BHSI =540 down 1.28%. 

The Fixtures:  Ore =7, Coal =0, T/C =45, Period =13, total =65.

The fixtures contain only 3 days of activity this holiday shortened week.  I do not remember any other time in my dry bulk experience that there where zero coal fixtures reported during a 3 day trading week.

            Best done Period vs. spot rates

Capes:  none reported                                                  vs.  $7080

Pmax:  Anagel Omonia         3-5 MOS          $11,000 vs.  $8,874

Smax:  Krania                        5-7 MOS          $11,000 vs. $9,719

Hsize:  Great Leader            11-13 MOS        $ 9,500 vs. $8,155

The Vessels:  VLOC =0, Capes =7, Post P =3, KMax =9, PMax =22

SMax =17, HMax =2, Hsize =4, Bulkers =1, total =65.

The Futures:

This is in the developmental stage so hang with me for bit.  Ideas r welcome!

I am inclined 2 not only address the ffa closing values,  but 2 try and add a measure of comfort/confidence through the addition of a time component.  Mayb 4wkavg? Sort of…

Capes;

PMax;

SMax;

Ski Notes:

The fleet valuation for DRYS remains incomplete, we expect next midweek.   The desk sits empty with a sign saying Boomer James is gone fishing!  Folks remember he is a bottom roller from the old days…

Good Fortunes